Marcus Stroman won't stop tweeting; 2019 Vlad Guerrero Jr/Blue Jays thread

i think it's just that our OF is always banged up somehow and I don't think we have any real OF prospects in AAA (outside of one AAAA dude that is doing well in Buffalo). even Tapia, who has flashes of playableness (him stretching a single into a double last night was amazing), is getting more time than i think is warranted.

I'm sure I'm looking at this in a very simplistic way, but looking at the Bisons' roster, couldn't you bring up either Nathan Lukes (27) or Logan Warmoth (26)? I don't know the first thing about either guy, but looking at their stats, they couldn't do any worse than Zimmer, and I have to believe they'd be an improvement. Neither one's ever had a major-league AB--why not see what one of them can do?

he's a former first-rounder and top-30 prospect; maybe the jays thought they could fix him and gambled on him as a fifth outfielder? since they obviously haven't, it seems long past time to cut bait. i guess he's solid in the field at least

Lukes feels like a AAAA fluke, they had him up briefly – and i don't think his glove is all that great – which is the main thing Zimmer has going for him with the Jays.

A friend and I left the game today with the Jays down 8-3 after eight. In the bottom of the inning, as we listened in the car, a three-run homer made it 8-6, someone walked, there was a botched double-play, and Bichette went to 2-0; if he'd walked, Guerrero would have come up with two outs, two on, and a chance to walk it off. I was of course rooting for just that, but a tiny part of me was thinking, "God, do ever want to admit you left such a game?"

Bichette grounded out.

I think Manoah would finish second to Verlander in a Cy Young vote today, but it's close. (Gausman still leads on Fangraphs, but he's taken a step back in more traditional Cy Young-type metrics. Cortes-Cortes-what-a-Yankee is in there too.)

In other big Jays news, we-can't-find-a-replacement Bradley Zimmer now hitting .103, with a OBP of .212 and a slugging percentage somewhere in between.

His glove looks so good out there, but the bat is brutal. Problem is, I feel like Tapia isn’t good enough to be in CF when Springer needs a break.

Jesus. Both fangraphs and reference have Tapia as having a worse WAR than Zimmer despite hitting better.

I know it's silly for me to rail against the 24th or 25th guy on the roster, but every time he's at bat, I wince--it's like we still have the pitcher spot locked in.

and as if by example, Tapia makes a couple mistakes in the outfield – completely cancelling out the home run he hit.

another error for Tapia. ffs

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-top-prospect-gabriel-moreno-joining-team-for-series-against-tigers/

I know I should know all about him, but as usual, I don't--his minor-league stats are very impressive across the board. I was confused at first--another catcher, with the two we have playing so well?--but didn't realize Jansen's out again.

ya – Jano took a pitch to his hand. he seemed ok at first – but went to the DL the next day.
I think Moreno still has a few things that need work (framing)(mainly framing, aparently) and I have no idea why he hasn't hot for power in AAA, but i'm not so concerned about that - dude was still *hitting*.
was able to add him in my local fantasy league. i suspect this will just be a cup of coffee until Jano is back, but I'm excited.

Van Halen's "Hot for Power"--love that song.

Baseball may be the driving force of Montoyo’s life, but music has been the underlying beat. His stadium office is cluttered with bongos, congas, timbales, maracas and records. He plays salsa music to relax before games. And sometimes, he spends weekends during the season accompanying bands in night clubs with a güiro, an instrument which produces sound by rubbing a stick against a notched hollow gourd.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/sports/baseball/charlie-montoyo-blue-jays-salsa.html

anyone who plays the güiro, I love them

he's played a few times at a place literally around the corner from me!

Three months of playing out the string to nab a wild card spot I guess.

I think so, yes...Obviously, Manoah's been fantastic, and yesterday wasn't exactly a disaster--one pitch did him in, and we was indeed getting a little squeezed on calls.

Having said that, he was doing one thing that always frustrates me with any pitcher: throwing chase pitches on 1-2 counts that weren't even close. I know he wanted them to be closer, which is the whole point--I understand that--but is there a rule now that you can't go right after someone on a 1-2 count? It's like you take a pitcher's count and automatically turn it into a hitter's count (I'd say 2-2 favours the hitter slightly, because he knows you don't want to go full, especially with runners on base).

("he was"--I'm not that much of a diehard, or that grammatically sloppy)

I certainly don’t regret skipping these games due to my anxiety about them

I bailed yesterday immediately after the hit (and I was nervous less from a team standpoint--as NoTime says, we're not catching New York--than having to do with my Cy Young bet, where a couple of bad starts can be fatal).

Anyway, shows how much I know: I looked up Manoah's career splits, and the difference between 1-2 and 2-2 is miniscule (both involve ~110 PA):

1-2: .129/.143/.186
2-2: .135/.150/.164

That's just when the next pitch produces an out or hit/HB/etc., mind you; in general, as you would expect, he's much better when ahead on the count than when neutral:

ahead: .150/.173/.241
neutral: .230/.257/.314

So throw a strike, see what happens.

Well today went better. I was brave enough to have updates turned

… on!

holy shit i just watched the highlights from this game – wtf did i miss?!

Sounds crazy, I know, but: a friend and I were talking about the logic of trading Kirk. Three catchers are a nice luxury, but they need a starter. You don't trade Moreno, Jansen's trade value is probably minimal, and Kirk's is at a peak.

it's the biggest position of depth they have. i guess the idea is to land another starter to take Ryu's place?

Ryu was pitching so poorly, Stripling probably doesn't give up much, but it's the ripple effect--Stripling was doing really well as a set-up guy, which is more where he belongs. I'd hate to give up Kirk, believe me, but I think he could be part of a deal that lands a solid third or fourth starter.

There are almost no decent hitting catchers in the AL, there has to be a better option than trading Kirk.

It may be moot unless they're a viable contender (theoretically, just getting into the playoffs is enough in baseball, but they're really up and down right now). I don't know who else they have who's tradeable and might actually fetch something. Maybe they can ride it out with three catchers.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/the-blue-jays-have-a-catcher-dilemma-234201961.html

Far from a perfect analogy--young, All-Star level catchers are obviously harder to come by than the same at first base--but this seems a little like when they had McGriff and Olerud at first base/DH in 1990. I don't think you could ever engineer the kind of blockbuster trade they did back then today, but hard as it was to part with McGriff, they did.

horrible trivia question:

name the top hitting catcher in baseball right now. hint: the last name starts with "C" and ends with "S"

answer:

Willson Contreras (168 wRC+, just above William Contreras 154 wRC+). very trick-like question because Willson has only appeared in 30 games, 114 PAs, about half of William)

TSN had a guy from The Athletic talking about the Jays' catcher situation tonight. He said they absolutely won't trade either Kirk or Moreno, Jansen maybe. I'm all for it--I don't want to lose Kirk--I just wonder what they can realistically get for Jansen. He's a 27-year-old, injury-prone backup catcher, pretty good power, lifetime average of .213.

i doubt they can get a *lot* for jansen, but probably more right now than ever. he's cheap and still has years and minor league options left

houston in particular is in dire need, and the asking price to rent willson is no doubt astronomical

The Yankees have thrown everything out of whack. In a normal year, the Jays (39-30 after today) would probably be within four or five games out of first. I don't know if they desperately need pitching, or if a little more pitching would just help, which is the case with everybody, all the time.

same with boston. either team would be in first in the AL or NL central.

well they’re almost certainly going to make the playoffs and almost certainly not going to catch the yankees. what do teams need to win short series? these days the answer seems to be More Relievers

and maybe terrance gore

Weird--until I'm reminded, I completely forget that the Blue Jays were once in the same division as the Brewers.

most HRs of all-time hit against Brewers pitching? Reggie Jackson.

Had to check--they moved to the AL Central in '94, then to the NL in '98. They were actually runner-up to the Jays in '92, four back, and the '87 team was a big part of the Jays' collapse at the end.

I remember the brewers were always a pain in the ass for the jays

There was a moment in tonight's game where Guerrero and Tellez were clowning around at first base, Kirk was coming to the plate (just before his HR), and Manoah was in the dugout, still in the game. It felt like all that was missing was Lumpy Rutherford.

1) Pretty clearly, they won't be trading Kirk--he just gets better and better, and is now hitting .320 with power.

2) Pretty clearly, they desperately need pitching.

No idea what they should do.

It’s more than a little concerning how bad Berrios and Kikuchi have been.

Perfect position for tonight: blowout win in the first game, blown lead and then come-from-behind win in the second, and their (non-Fangraphs, anyway) ace going tonight. Foot on the throat, primed for a sweep. But--based on just gut feeling, and knowing it's hard to sweep any series, especially against a good team--the Jays seem to squander these opportunities time and time again.

I didn’t realize Boston’s closer is a leading mind in the medical field and thus, didn’t come north of the border with his teammates. Lol.
Whatever happens today they’re going to have to do it without their best reliever (also I will be at the game!)

Manoah again, lucky you. I was thinking last night about how angry management--and maybe the whole team--must have been at Houck. At a certain point, your "principled decision"--above and beyond how dumb it is from a personal standpoint--really affects the entire team.

"This is our house!"

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-gives-blue-jays-walk-off-win