Marcus Stroman won't stop tweeting; 2019 Vlad Guerrero Jr/Blue Jays thread

Was down there today--no Vlad, but very exciting.

I was glad they sent him out for the seventh. First of all, he just doesn't seem like a six-inning starter: he's a horse, very much in the Clemens mode. I also have a proprietary interest because of the bet I made. Snell won a Cy pitching six-innings, but almost all winners, I think, even recent ones, pitch deeper into games than that.

Weird to see the Jays on the wrong end of their Pythagorean projection. The 2015 (underperformed by 9 games), 2016 (2 games), and 2021 (8 games) teams--last two playoff teams, plus last year's near-miss--were all better than their records. With the 2015 and 2021 teams, it was like you were waiting around all season for them to catch up with their run differential. This year's team is now 8-2 in one-run games and 14-8 overall, even though they've scored and given up 89.

We're either due to win some blowouts or lose some close ones.

Or both. I feel like we’re due for both. Hopefully more blowouts.

Gausman (finished for the day) is up to 31.1 walkless innings--they had a graphic up showing that he's getting close to longest stretch to start a season for the past decade or so.

More:

In 31 2/3 innings this season, Gausman has yet to allow a single walk or home run. This puts him in extremely rare company, joining only Cy Young as the only starters in the World Series era (since 1903) to begin a season with five consecutive outings of no walks and no home runs allowed (minimum 20 innings total).

Posnanski post today:

When the Blue Jays signed the 31-year-old Gausman, they seemed to be taking a pretty big chance. Gausman had once been a mega-prospect with the Baltimore Orioles, but even the most casual of baseball fans know that being a mega-pitching-prospect with the Baltimore Orioles is not unlike being the Spinal Tap drummer.

...or like being dubbed "Infrastructure Week"; that would have worked too.

Ric Parnell, our drummer in This is Spinal Tap, passed away today. No one ever rocked harder.

— Harry Shearer (@theharryshearer) May 2, 2022

Bad timing by Joe, bad timing by me.

Two great starts wasted--disappointing.

(I was thinking about a situation where, late September, it's Manoah and Gausman battling for the Cy Young, and the Jays are in a close pennant race...I might have to root for the Jays winning 10-9 whenever Gausman starts.)

Gausman gave up a walk today--get rid of him.

And the team has yet to bounce back from that walk

Damn you, Pythagoras--damn you to hell!

About to lose again; on the cusp of .500.

Ya. I guess that whole “winning a lot of one-run games” situation cleared itself up.

Even adjusting for the league-wide drop in offense, their hitting has been a major disappointment. Springer, one big game from Vlad, and really that's about it.

And at the same time our pitchers are complaining about how the latest balls feel. I’m sort of confused on that one. Either offence is down, or the new balls suck for pitchers.

In other news, the jays Single A team struck out 24 guys last night.

Can't believe they pulled that one out--they had blown a lead and were down 9-6 when I left for tennis. Can't remember when they last swept a four-game series.

I was just getting updates on my phone and it sounded like an insane affair. Only two innings where no runs scored. Neither starter went beyond the 3rd. The lead in the game was lost more times than I can figure out!
What a batshit first sweep of the season for them.

I'm sure there are reasons having to do with economics or service-time or who knows what, but I'm baffled as to why the Jays carry Bradley Zimmer. He's seems like the very definition of why the concept of "replacement player" was developed. And he's into his sixth season of essentially no value.

i think it's just that our OF is always banged up somehow and I don't think we have any real OF prospects in AAA (outside of one AAAA dude that is doing well in Buffalo). even Tapia, who has flashes of playableness (him stretching a single into a double last night was amazing), is getting more time than i think is warranted.

I'm sure I'm looking at this in a very simplistic way, but looking at the Bisons' roster, couldn't you bring up either Nathan Lukes (27) or Logan Warmoth (26)? I don't know the first thing about either guy, but looking at their stats, they couldn't do any worse than Zimmer, and I have to believe they'd be an improvement. Neither one's ever had a major-league AB--why not see what one of them can do?

he's a former first-rounder and top-30 prospect; maybe the jays thought they could fix him and gambled on him as a fifth outfielder? since they obviously haven't, it seems long past time to cut bait. i guess he's solid in the field at least

Lukes feels like a AAAA fluke, they had him up briefly – and i don't think his glove is all that great – which is the main thing Zimmer has going for him with the Jays.

A friend and I left the game today with the Jays down 8-3 after eight. In the bottom of the inning, as we listened in the car, a three-run homer made it 8-6, someone walked, there was a botched double-play, and Bichette went to 2-0; if he'd walked, Guerrero would have come up with two outs, two on, and a chance to walk it off. I was of course rooting for just that, but a tiny part of me was thinking, "God, do ever want to admit you left such a game?"

Bichette grounded out.

I think Manoah would finish second to Verlander in a Cy Young vote today, but it's close. (Gausman still leads on Fangraphs, but he's taken a step back in more traditional Cy Young-type metrics. Cortes-Cortes-what-a-Yankee is in there too.)

In other big Jays news, we-can't-find-a-replacement Bradley Zimmer now hitting .103, with a OBP of .212 and a slugging percentage somewhere in between.

His glove looks so good out there, but the bat is brutal. Problem is, I feel like Tapia isn’t good enough to be in CF when Springer needs a break.

Jesus. Both fangraphs and reference have Tapia as having a worse WAR than Zimmer despite hitting better.

I know it's silly for me to rail against the 24th or 25th guy on the roster, but every time he's at bat, I wince--it's like we still have the pitcher spot locked in.

and as if by example, Tapia makes a couple mistakes in the outfield – completely cancelling out the home run he hit.

another error for Tapia. ffs

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-top-prospect-gabriel-moreno-joining-team-for-series-against-tigers/

I know I should know all about him, but as usual, I don't--his minor-league stats are very impressive across the board. I was confused at first--another catcher, with the two we have playing so well?--but didn't realize Jansen's out again.

ya – Jano took a pitch to his hand. he seemed ok at first – but went to the DL the next day.
I think Moreno still has a few things that need work (framing)(mainly framing, aparently) and I have no idea why he hasn't hot for power in AAA, but i'm not so concerned about that - dude was still *hitting*.
was able to add him in my local fantasy league. i suspect this will just be a cup of coffee until Jano is back, but I'm excited.

Van Halen's "Hot for Power"--love that song.

Baseball may be the driving force of Montoyo’s life, but music has been the underlying beat. His stadium office is cluttered with bongos, congas, timbales, maracas and records. He plays salsa music to relax before games. And sometimes, he spends weekends during the season accompanying bands in night clubs with a güiro, an instrument which produces sound by rubbing a stick against a notched hollow gourd.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/sports/baseball/charlie-montoyo-blue-jays-salsa.html

anyone who plays the güiro, I love them

he's played a few times at a place literally around the corner from me!

Three months of playing out the string to nab a wild card spot I guess.

I think so, yes...Obviously, Manoah's been fantastic, and yesterday wasn't exactly a disaster--one pitch did him in, and we was indeed getting a little squeezed on calls.

Having said that, he was doing one thing that always frustrates me with any pitcher: throwing chase pitches on 1-2 counts that weren't even close. I know he wanted them to be closer, which is the whole point--I understand that--but is there a rule now that you can't go right after someone on a 1-2 count? It's like you take a pitcher's count and automatically turn it into a hitter's count (I'd say 2-2 favours the hitter slightly, because he knows you don't want to go full, especially with runners on base).

("he was"--I'm not that much of a diehard, or that grammatically sloppy)

I certainly don’t regret skipping these games due to my anxiety about them

I bailed yesterday immediately after the hit (and I was nervous less from a team standpoint--as NoTime says, we're not catching New York--than having to do with my Cy Young bet, where a couple of bad starts can be fatal).

Anyway, shows how much I know: I looked up Manoah's career splits, and the difference between 1-2 and 2-2 is miniscule (both involve ~110 PA):

1-2: .129/.143/.186
2-2: .135/.150/.164

That's just when the next pitch produces an out or hit/HB/etc., mind you; in general, as you would expect, he's much better when ahead on the count than when neutral:

ahead: .150/.173/.241
neutral: .230/.257/.314

So throw a strike, see what happens.

Well today went better. I was brave enough to have updates turned

… on!

holy shit i just watched the highlights from this game – wtf did i miss?!

Sounds crazy, I know, but: a friend and I were talking about the logic of trading Kirk. Three catchers are a nice luxury, but they need a starter. You don't trade Moreno, Jansen's trade value is probably minimal, and Kirk's is at a peak.

it's the biggest position of depth they have. i guess the idea is to land another starter to take Ryu's place?

Ryu was pitching so poorly, Stripling probably doesn't give up much, but it's the ripple effect--Stripling was doing really well as a set-up guy, which is more where he belongs. I'd hate to give up Kirk, believe me, but I think he could be part of a deal that lands a solid third or fourth starter.