Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

for real, though, the dataset goes back to the year 812, every year, so i'm pretty sure they would notice if the dates suddenly jumped a couple weeks when the calendar systems shifted.

but then again - i do not have access to this top secret data. but i would like to

https://i.imgur.com/BBO6LMj.jpg

that does leave the possibility open that the previous record for earlier blossom peaking was in fact, on christ's date of birth. and not only the wise men in judaea but also some wise men in japan took note, and said "wow, something really important is happening today"

Japan never used the Julian calendar. It was totally closed to westerners until the mid-nineteenth century, when the Gregorian was already in general use.

hmm

"If I buy an SUV will it be vandalised by climate protesters?"

Yes. Yes it will.

The @Telegraph tells its readers not to buy SUVs in case we target them.

Our campaign is working. We will make it impossible to own an SUV in the world's urban areas. But only if you join in! pic.twitter.com/IfYnJ2I1rB

— The Tyre Extinguishers (@T_Extinguishers) April 4, 2022

Was recently thinking about when there was a campaign of smashing windows of SUVs in San Francisco’s Mission District, and how SUVs seem to be widely seen as status symbols by Latino immigrants, and how the Mission District is a rapidly gentrifying area which was historically mostly populated by Latino immigrants.

Abstract from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w

At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

Just catching up on this thread, but Aimless, your lathe of heaven needs a tuneup

Put it in the pile with the ten thousand other studies that show the same thing. Until a climate scientist sets herself on fire on the DC Mall in protest the media won't even blink.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Monday, March 7, 2022 1:04 PM (two months ago) bookmarkflaglink

Just a spoonful of sugar!
Great climate flash mob reminding Lloyds of London to stop messing around with fossil fuelshttps://t.co/bc4QibhMFV

— Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) June 23, 2022

*absolute bloodcurdling scream*

put this on the next adam curtis film

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe

What a URL!

I'm still liking the idea of dumping rust dust into the ocean and creating a kelp bloom:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4Hnv_ZJSQY

batteries!

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2022.08.03/main.svg

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53299

was stoked to read about this 'sand battery' idea, sounds promising and cheap:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe

― papal hotwife (milo z)

wait his solution is _vote_? "glue yourself to a motorway, or, i guess, vote?"

bad vibes in the spaces i'm in this week. my life gets interrupted more and more often with blind existential panic. all of the media are saying "it's not too late" because what else are you going to say? it's the only responsible thing to say. what do you do if it's too late, in ten years life will be unrecognizably bleak for those of us who aren't dead already? i'm lucky that i gave up living for the future, lucky that i have no purpose in life other than every day to survive in a world that wants me dead, because today is the only thing i have to live for. at what point is "don't doomscroll" identical to "stick your head in the sand"? in terms of anything _i personally can do_, we're doomed. if we're not doomed, you know, there's nothing _i_ can do to make that happen. that's the ground facts. that's not having power and having to live with the consequences.

happy friday.

I feel all of that and I wish I had an answer except to reduce doomscrolling as much as possible which I tend to fail at anyway

any solution will have to be a collective one which isn't obviously forthcoming but a lot of things could happen as things get worse. hopefully things other than fortifying borders and properties and building more prisons and expanding police and military which seems to be the trajectory we're on right now (which even a lot of climate activists don't seem too bothered about). I tried to start this paragraph on a cautiously optimistic note but fuck

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/12/climate/california-rain-storm.html

(for fans of the other harrowing chapter in ministry of the future)

fwiw I follow a lot of climate scientists on Twitter and most of 'em have commented on that Guardian article saying it's not only unhelpful but flat out wrong in a lot of places

i mean, i don't exactly have a lot of trust in the guardian as a newspaper lol, and i don't have trust in _any_ non-scientific source when it comes to science reporting. i _do_ have trust in my own sense of foreboding, though, and the sense of foreboding the people i care about have. "foreboding" is, strictly speaking, outside the realm of climate science, but they're increasingly intertwined.

So nobody here thinks the dump-a-bunch-of-iron-dust-in-the-ocean is a good idea?

https://salvage.zone/denial-futures/

"They are sitting on a beach in northern Michigan. He is my grandchild or yours, keeping watch over his family as best he can."

No. No grandchildren. Bad enough that there's still a me.

yikes

Horrible news: @Amtrak @PacSurfliners between LA & San Diego has been suspended indefinitely due to coastal erosion.

The route was the 2nd busiest intercity rail corridor in the US, w/ 26 daily trains & ~3M riders per year.

Climate change is here, and we are totally unprepared pic.twitter.com/wxJULUqczq

— Jacob Mandel 🚲🚋🌴 (@TallDarknJewish) September 30, 2022

Ugh

(Is there an emoji for why am I not surprised, the hell timeline is the only timeline for me, the best of all possible worlds etc.?)

🙃 and/or 😶 i think

🤔🤨🧐

Sorry I meant to type 😕

Well, that sucks.

not sure if this is the right thread but holy fuck

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/13/almost-70-of-animal-populations-wiped-out-since-1970-report-reveals-aoe

headlines like this just seem unreal to me, which i guess is part of the problem but people what the fuck are we doing, this is a nightmare

i can't help thinking of this essay

https://www.davidquammen.com/sampler/18-planetofweeds

That essay went a bit off at the end as the writer starting sketching out the future but I certainly see that: 1) the awful things are happening as predicted and 2) that enough damage will occur so that we are stopped from living as we are and that 3) we could find ourselves helping each other out overtime or that it's too late and we slowly die off but that's speculation. 1) is happening and I guess I will see a lot of 2).

I did like the last sentence. In 10 billion years, whatever we do, the ecology will recover.

the adaptive way to living through our current 6th extinction event is to glance at the URL headline "70% of animal populations wiped out since 1970" and think "hmm, but i just read there are 20 quadrillion ants on earth. that must mean that there were once 66.7 quadrillion ants, in 1970. this is good progress"

There seems to be a lot more climate related sabotage happening these days than the media is actually covering. As things get worse it's going to get harder to hide that people are taking matters into their own hands.https://t.co/KCim0iE0MX

— Tovarisch (@nwbtcw) October 14, 2022

this is the kind of shit that you see as a tv news report playing in the background at the beginning of a disaster movie https://t.co/LBnsmXus26

— BOO-RG (@borgposting) October 14, 2022

a billion here a billion there, sooner or later you're talking about real numbers

70% reduction in animal populations in 50 years will do that i guess

The big reduction of insect biomass that started to be measured a couple of years ago is like the canary in the coal mine found inert on the floor of its cage.

When asked what fishermen can do in this situation, with their livelihoods dependent on the ocean, Prout responded, "Hope and pray. I guess that's the best way to say it."

It's a covert way of saying the situation looks hopeless and we don't have a prayer of it getting better.

Yesterday, I attended a conference at which an influential financier shared this unpublished map. Look at it. The estimated death toll is 2-3 *billion*; the timeframe is 20-30 years (previously: 50). Segments of the elite have simply 'written off' large parts of the Global South. pic.twitter.com/P7JTfepn9k

— Benjamin Ramm (@BenjaminRamm) October 16, 2022

"ideal zone for capturing solar energy to power the global north"

Psychedelics conference

what even is one of them?

Saw several tweets saying that map is rubbish (one tweet traced it to 20 years ago). But the point was that, as things get worse, certain groups of people are going to try and figure out how they can come out relatively unscarred.

White House is pushing ahead research to cool Earth by reflecting back sunlight

The White House is coordinating a five-year research plan to study ways of modifying the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth to temper the effects of global warming, a process sometimes called solar geoengineering or sunlight reflection.

The research plan will assess climate interventions, including spraying aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight back into space, and should include goals for research, what’s necessary to analyze the atmosphere, and what impact these kinds of climate interventions may have on Earth, according to the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy. Congress directed the research plan be produced in its spending plan for 2022, which President Joe Biden signed in March.

Mrburns.jpg

The ones who accept the science and think some Breaking Bad cliffhanger plot twist is going to avert the coming genocide are worse than the outright deniers. Tho I suspect that as with Covid, the most vocal deniers are actually following the science quite closely.

But the point was that, as things got worse, certain groups of people figured out how they could come out relatively unscarred.

ftfy

(can we do strikethrough text?)

this is an excellent, really long feature with lots of interesting photographs, videos, and infographics about the deforestation of the amazon and how that's directly creating droughts and tipping points already crossed which can't be undone (not in our lifetime, at least). it's washington post so paywalled, but i have a 'gift link' which should work for everyone:

How the Forest Dies
https://wapo.st/3As5FHc

not at all surprising that cop27 was a total failure in terms of actually mitigating climate change, given that no powerful country is willing or able to divorce from growthism, but still quite depressing to witness

— kaisa (@kuuhulluutta) November 20, 2022

if COP26 was about rolling back mandatory decarbonisation, at #COP27 we got roll-out Wall Street Consensus:

(carbon) financiers triumph in scaling up the derisking state - see green hydrogen/Just Transition partnerships & 'influencer' NGFS central banks https://t.co/RRwqcBvUkz

— Daniela Gabor (@DanielaGabor) November 20, 2022

US climate envoy John Kerry backs the United Arab Emirates’ decision to appoint the CEO of a state-run oil company to preside over the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Dubai, citing his work on renewable energy projects.

In an interview Sunday with the Associated Press, the former US secretary of state acknowledged that the Emirates and other countries relying on fossil fuels to fund their state coffers face finding “some balance” ahead.

However, he dismissed the idea that Sultan al-Jaber’s appointment should be automatically disqualified due to him leading the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Activists, however, equated it to asking “arms dealers to lead peace talks” when authorities announced his nomination on Thursday.

“I think that Dr Sultan al-Jaber is a terrific choice because he is the head of the company. That company knows it needs to transition,” Kerry said after attending an energy conference in the Emirati capital. “He knows – and the leadership of the UAE is committed to transitioning.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/16/cop28-john-kerry-backs-uae-appointment-oil-chief

“We believe we have compromised significantly, and we're prepared to compromise further" - John Kerry, years ago, shockingly

oceans broke heat record in 2022, breking the 2021 record, which broke the 2020 record, which broke the 2019 record...