what the fuck is happening in Russia?

@Hunter

How typical Russians see the situation inside the country, as well as comparative to Ukraine, is a tough question to answer and I'll need a couple days. It's also a bit of a moving target. Do we mean from 1991 to 2014, or 2014 to 2021, or during the war right now? For now, Kamil Galeev has published a series of threads on Twitter that delve into current affairs in Russia. He's not perfect but it's a good start. Regarding the oligarch in Mariupol, I'm not sure but I'll see if I can find anything. At this point the bombing seems like punishment for not surrendering fast enough. Mariupol also barely avoided conquest in 2014, and some people have argued that this is 'payback.'

@anvil

Once again, Kamil Galeev to the rescue:

In discussing the collapse of Russia and rise of separatist states on its ruins, many focus on ethnic conflicts and identity politics. That's not completely wrong. I'll argue however that the main drivers of collapse will be geographic and socio economic...That will be the major factor of Russian collapse. It's not that regional authorities will suddenly declare independence. They won't, at least for now. It's that they will act in the best interest of their regions. Because if a catastrophe happens there, they'll be blamed for it.

In acting in the best interest of their regions under the deficit of literally everything they'll inevitably stock up, thus breaking supply lines and technological chains...

Russia won't fall because of collective morally justified action. It's cohesion will be broken by its own officials aiming to avoid catastrophe in their own region. That will be a de facto economic separatism, political one will come much later

Khabarovsk is an interesting case because it's about as far from the Moscow power center as you can get. You may have read that on the whole, this region tends to be more independent, hence Furgal's defiance and his arrest sparking massive protests.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/the-distance-between-moscow-and-russias-far-east-is-growing/

Despite the huge crowds of people, though, the protests did not change anything politically. For the center, it may also have seemed counterproductive to clamp down on them and risk an even bigger backlash. Why not just let them peter out like the Hong Kong protests a few years back? Then they could divide them up into new provinces:

https://www.asianews.it/news-en/New-provinces-in-Russia's-Far-East-will-reinforce-Putin's-centralism-53767.html

The operation is definitely sucking in Rosgvardia from all over Russia. Documents from soldiers in Ukraine, and some POWs themselves, have also confirmed this.* One bit of anecdotal evidence: a recent protester was called in to a police office was surprised to see it staffed exclusively by women. Maybe all of the men were gone fishing? Some are refusing to go, though:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-riot-police-dismissed-krasnodar-b2045577.html

*this could vary region by region, though. Judging by arrest videos from the last month, Moscow especially still seems very heavily staffed

In discussing the collapse of Russia and rise of separatist states on its ruins, many focus on ethnic conflicts and identity politics. That's not completely wrong. I'll argue however that the main drivers of collapse will be geographic and socio economic

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 26, 2022

TY.

Also Holy wow the length of that thread!

I've read quite a few of Kamil Galeev's twitter threads. I noticed he was talking about the role of organized crime recently (though I'm still not sure how distinct that is as a thing from siloviki?)

I saw an intervew with Khodorovsky from 2017 recently where he said Putin had lost much of his power and organized crime was running the show, but in his recent interviews he makes no mention of organized crime and seems to say Putin is running the show. I imagine he's not particularly trustworthy

I imagine he's not particularly trustworthy

Anvil do you mean Galeev or Khodorkovsky? I see Galeev as an interesting commentator but definitely not the last word when it comes to explaining Russia. I've seen some criticism of him on Twitter as well, and ended up following those people also, to get their own perspective as well.

If you meant Khodorkovsky, I've seen very little of what he has to say about Russia, and so can't speak to his trustworthiness.

I meant Khodorkovsky (being untrustworthy) though I don't really know, just seen him saying contradictory things at different time, no that that necessarily means anything

Not seeing any particular reason to doubt anything I've seen that Galeev has said, a lot of it is opinion anyway but I've not read anything that seems untoward. I would unfollow if I got that sense

Has anyone else here seen Alex Gibney's doc on Khodorkovsky from 2019? It's a great doc, even accounting for Khodorkovsky's own interests and agenda. Curious as to what he's leaving out of the story.

Yes, I’ve seen. Enjoyed it but can’t remember much now, unfortunately. I do remember some acquaintance from Russian saying Khodorkovsky was “still a bad guy.”

Oh no, never mind, I saw the one from 2011.

How organic is this pro-russia convoy/rally in Berlin? I've saw there was one in Thessaloniki too, but I got impression that was local cranks/fascists and smaller and less organized.

Suggestions the moon is thinking of applying to join NATO meet a stiff response etc etc

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/12/russia-will-restart-moon-landings-says-putin-a77323

Maersk (you know, the #2 shipping company on the planet) leaving the Russian market.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQPrseLXIAUsGBw.jpg

Yes. That is huge.

Putin's bravado in the face of sanctions, announcing that the Russian Federation is large enough to go it alone, was nonsensical. If things continue along this road for another few years Russia will be reduced to a nation of starvation and chaos. Or else it will become a wholly owned subsidiary of China, Inc.

Apparently Navalny is "missing"

“There is no such convict here. We do not know where Alexei is now and what colony they are taking him to,” Alexei Navalny's press secretary, Kira Yarmysh, said https://t.co/c37hXp0iQM

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) June 14, 2022

Putin knows that if he has Navalny killed he will be strongly condemned by the great majority of the international community, for the 250th time.

I was thinking about the Belarus protests the other day and how they dissipated. I'd read that initially Lukashenko had been employing old brittle monolithic soviet style propaganda and which was ineffective. But at a certain point had brought in Russian propagandists (or Putin forced them on him?) and changed tack to the more purposefully contradictory, disorienting, flexible, 'post-truth' stuff we're familiar with elsewhere - turning protestors against each other, sowing division and distrust

I can't tell if Russia's internal propaganda and media messaging is kind of moving in the opposite direction, a more brittle monolithic messaging, tighter control. I feel like February and Z IS an explicit change from passivity to energized population, that seems to lead simultaneously to a stronger dog but a weaker lead

https://i.insider.com/62a7160ba464ed0019583628?width=800&format=jpeg

The hurried rebranding means employees are seemingly scribbling out the Golden Arches from McDonald's ketchup packets to reuse for Vkusno & tochka.

the McNuggets are now apparently just called.. 'nuggets'

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYHS91TWYAAB44K?format=jpg&name=medium

Destroy both says everyone else.

Did Z a solid by knocking ukraine out of the world cup tbf

https://i.imgur.com/Cy6SNrh.jpg

Moscow-vetted queen what?

I've read a certain amount about Ukrainians forcibly taken into Russia (1.5-2m), but not really all that much about why. Other than attempting to crush any dissent and intimidate. But is there more to it? Whats their longer term plan for them?

There's a bunch of articles I've seen but they're largely about the process itself: filtration camps, destinations as far away as the other side of Russia (Vladivostok, for instance).

The initial explanation for getting them out of Ukraine is that in places like Mariupol, Russia either did not allow, or simply shelled and shot up the corridors to Ukraine; refugees were thus 'encouraged' to go in the other direction, sometimes given to understand that it's as simple as "you can die, or go to Russia."

There doesn't seem to be any rational, or even irrational 'policy' reason for this to be happening except for the very dubious PR factor of making it look like Russia is taking in its poor, long-lost Ukrainian 'brothers.' There is even an underground network of Russian volunteers working hard to get them back OUT of the country, for ex: through the border by Georgia, or to the Baltics through St. Petersburg.

There's also the fact of the declining Russian birth rate and the numerous cases of kids being separated from their parents, or orphans being taken into the country, but I wouldn't go as far as saying it is *the* reason because it's too malicious and depressing to contemplate.

Then again, as is often the case in this war: the cruelty is the point.

On the subject of destroying England but not Wales, I remember devouring books about nuclear war when I was younger - because of "Two Tribes" and nuclear paranoia - and one of them pointed out that a chain of about six megaton-range nuclear groundbursts in a line parallel with the England/Wales border would render England uninhabitable for decades. By extension England also means London, which means the entire United Kingdom.

Looking at NUKEMAP this does appear to be the case, because the prevailing winds are from the west and southwest. An 800kt bomb detonated on Portsmouth would spread fallout over London, which wouldn't destroy the city but would tank the economy, because no-one is going to want to work in the Square Mile if they have to spend every day locked inside a hermetically-sealed bunker. It would be futile burning £50 notes in the faces of homeless people because they would all be blind.

In real life the Russians did apparently have Cardiff on their target list. There was even a nuclear survival bunker in the city. Wisely the people who designed it didn't put it underneath a large building, unlike in Threads:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-60244090

I do wonder how the average Russian feels about Ukraine. Especially bearing in mind that sharp generational gap. From a British perspective the only remotely comparable scenario would have been an invasion of Ireland during the height of the Troubles, perhaps on the back of the discovery of North Sea Oil. Ted Heath would have been pilloried by the international community, particularly the United States, but he could have argued that Britain was self-sufficient. But it's very difficult to comprehend something like that happening so it's hard to put myself in the position of a Russian person contemplating a mechanised invasion of next door.

A while back some Russian soldiers were irradiated after being ordered to dig trenches in the vicinity of Chernobyl:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/world/europe/ukraine-chernobyl.html

Supposedly because none of the soldiers had heard of the Chernobyl disaster, because they were born in the 2000s and it just isn't featured in the Russian media. Does the average Russian teenager even know that Ukraine is a thing? They're unlikely to go there on holiday, so why would they even know it exists?

I do wonder how the average Russian feels about Ukraine.
...
Does the average Russian teenager even know that Ukraine is a thing?

This was linked earlier in the Ukraine thread but might be new to you:

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/03/feeling-around-for-something-human

I haven't seen this yet but it appears to cover the same ground:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qmQs2LbnaE

English subs, of course.

There's also the fact of the declining Russian birth rate and the numerous cases of kids being separated from their parents, or orphans being taken into the country, but I wouldn't go as far as saying it is *the* reason because it's too malicious and depressing to contemplate.

This is what I had been wondering about, I'd not seen it mentioned explicitly, or even implicitly really. The declining birth rate, ageing society, population pyramid are a problem, but it being perceived as a problem is another matter still, nevermind thinking 'lets steal people' being a solution! And yet...over 1% of the people in Russia are Ukrainians that have been taken

i think sending it ties into a scheme ongoing since the 2010s or before and obviously connected to what happened in the previous century to rebuild the far east demographically, turning it into a viable asia pacific logistics and trade hub. there haven't been many takers for resettlement schemes. but ukrainians don't have much choice, i guess. tass reports 2800 people will be sent to primorsky or khabarovsk by the end of the year: https://1sn.ru/bolee-800-ukrainskix-bezencev-pribyli-v-xabarovskii-i-primorskii-kraya-za-poslednie-sutki.

New Yale study says that whatever the Kremlin is claiming publicly, their economy is going to hell in a hand basket:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-imploding-sweeping-sanctions-corporate-exodus-yale-study-2022-7

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/daughter-of-putin-ally-alexander-dugin-killed-in-car-bomb-in-moscow-reports

so close- what a tragedy

Denazification begins at home.

Is this more likely to be FSB or similar?

Compact magazine claimed that Dugin and his daughter are "anti-fascist"—This is total bullshit.https://t.co/Db9Lvu9laM

— John Ganz (@lionel_trolling) August 22, 2022

"The war in Ukraine is not happening in isolation. While Russia is contesting the US-led security order in Europe, China is challenging it in Asia. A geopolitical transition has begun whose results may not be fully apparent for decades. But the post-cold war order that has governed the world for the past 30 years is drawing to a close. From its demise, a new balance of power will emerge."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/22/six-months-war-putin-ukraine-russia-nato-energy-prices

Meanwhile in Russia

📅 Today marks 83 years since the signing of the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the USSR.

📹 Watch our retrospective video for information on the state of affairs in Europe prior to the signing of this document.

🔗 https://t.co/0oj5eo5QbC pic.twitter.com/mxyonaFXDt

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) August 23, 2022

they missed the bit out where hundreds of thousands of the Red Army died/got captured because Stalin wouldn't believe his own NKVD agents' multiple reports on an imminent invasion. But I agree with some of the Brit bashing!

Speaking of Brit bashing -

On the one hand, the 1939 William Strang mission to Moscow was a last-ditch effort doomed to failure. On the other hand, why the fuck did they pick this guy to begin with:

During the late-1930s, Strang was a member of the Anglo-German Fellowship, which was pro-Nazi.

Strang became of interest to an undercover MI5 agent, Eric Roberts, who was operating under the pretense of working for the Gestapo, with the intention of identifying potential fifth columnists. In 1943, he reported on one of the diplomat's female friends who was possibly his lover.[5] Unaware of her connections, Strang had told her "that he personally hated the Jews and regarded the Bolsheviks and the Jews as the two greatest enemies of all that is decent".

Not exactly outlandish views in the Tory Party at the time I would have thought.

Stafford Cripps didn't have much success in Moscow either. Maisky noted in his diary that they much preferred negging with out and out Tory shits rather than Labour people of the British left.

Zelenskyy has ratified Law 5371.
Workers now have no right to bargain, and trade unions cannot protect them. pic.twitter.com/SUauiTqmaH

— The International Magazine (@TheIntlMagz) August 23, 2022

Russia's best and brightest are firebombing military conscription centres. https://t.co/ezH1eatNdG

— libcom.org (@libcomorg) August 24, 2022

https://theins.ru/en/politics/252885

This train is on fire: how Russian partisans set fire to military registration and enlistment offices and derail trains.

Loving the sneaky lil Z in Unionize there

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa-8CIEagAAfcJF?format=jpg

Some disturbing news coming out of Latvia by the looks of it too

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN0pdUTUYAQSqVj?format=jpg&name=small

On tbe other hand, they look to have found some good news in Kherson

Today Russia deliver humanitarian aid to the people of Kharkov region. pic.twitter.com/IpQ4TOnMqC

— The International Magazine (@TheIntlMagz) March 9, 2022

interesting spelling there

https://i.imgur.com/UI2i80y.png

The chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia’s biggest privately held oil producer and one of the few Russian companies to criticize the invasion of Ukraine, has died after falling out of a hospital window, Interfax reports https://t.co/wM9r1KAkQn

— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 1, 2022

jeeeesus this world

it has been suggested he was having a smoke and it might have been an acidental fall. CSI Moscow doing the forensics on some ciggies his dead hand was still clutching.

I'm sure it's trite to say, but the concert hall itself and the gunmen are so similar to the opening of Tenet...

Also similar to the Paris attack

What is the motive

Revenge for russia being in africa?

all the ghoulie villains from the past are coming back now for the big finale.

Did IS not mention why they did it when they claimed responsibility?

Okay found this: https://economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/why-did-isis-k-attack-a-moscow-theater/articleshow/108721361.cms

Or if you want something much longer https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/09/islamic-state-afghanistan-khorasan-propaganda-russia-ukraine-war/

THE #MOSCOW TERRORISTS: I’ve watched a half dozen videos of the terrorists action. They are attacking “Alpine style”, Fast & light. AK automatic rifles, poss IEDs & extra magazines in packs. Civilian clothes. No suicide bomb belts or vests & not fighting to death. People…

— Malcolm Nance (@MalcolmNance) March 22, 2024

93 dead, likely to rise.

Russians claiming they apprehended (some of) the perpetrators preparing to cross the Ukrainian border. Oh-oh.

so I hear no police turned up until 30 minutes after the first gunshots were fired, and then it took 1 hour 20 mins for the Russian special forces to turn up. hmm

all Tadzhik nationals xposts

115 dead now

Ty Lukas

"All four direct perpetrators of the terrorist attack, all those who shot and killed people, were found and detained. They tried to hide and moved towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them on the Ukrainian side to cross the state border. A total of 11 people were detained."

Man aren't they great at figuring this all out so quickly afterwards, shame about ignoring the warning from the enemy (US intel) days beforehand.

pretty cruel of IS to do this, there must be a lot of liberals twisting their guts inside out trying to pick a side

Putin has to find a way to blame the attacks on Ukraine. otherwise he’d have to pull forces out of the war to send them after Isis.

i wouldn’t trust any info from the russian government
it is quite interesting however how the chechens were able to apprehend the supposed terrorists so quickly and easily

new kinds of torture are being invented for these guys, I bet - apparently a video of one of their interrogations was published where the terrorist's ear was being cut off & he was forced to eat it (it says here in a Belgian newspaper)

oh cool!

That's not new, it happened in Django

that'll teach you not to sell any more forged Van Gogh originals in the Russian federation

good read: https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-russia-president-1999-chechnya-apartment-bombings/30097551.html

how did these dudes let themselves be taken alive

I've still to read more fully on this so its not a strongly held opinion but one things that spring to mind is the people taken might not necessarily be the people who did it. That would be one reason they let themselves be taken alive, as they didn't know they were going to be taken. It is the one thing that is somewhat surprising

ie if they had escaped, it might be better to at least find someone to stand in for them

They were wearing the exact same shirts in the pre-photo (in front of the IS flag) and in the arrest/torture screenshots. I don't know if they thought they would get away with it and not be dehumanized into nothing for the rest of their lives but they were stupid enough to do this in the first place, not thinking fits.

stop making me conspiracy-pilled

Fwiw I don't think its a conspiracy and I think the attack is almost certainly what it looks like. Its really more like if some Tajiks did it and those particular Tajiks couldn't be located would some other Tajiks do? But given everyone knew an attack was going to take place beforehand its more than likely they were easy enough to locate afterwards. It is weird they missed the opportunity for martyrdom though, that seems to be an intrinsic and fundamental error

they were working on the kill now, martyr later plan

starting to think that perhaps putin wasn’t behind it, they’d plant a stronger link to ukraine
so far the attempts to pin it on ukraine seem pretty desperate (“ukraine denies it, so it must be ukraine!”)

They've pivoted to 'we know IS did it but WHO hired them? I think we would know who'

yeah, they're now implying that the US, UK and Ukraine are somehow behind it, based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever

faking evidence does take time. i’m sure we’ll have some “authentic” confessions soon

lol at lukashenko saying the terrorists tried to flee to ukraine because it would be preferable to belarus
did he not get the memo

its not unlikely that Putin (and inner circle) genuinely thinks the US is behind the attack, because the US is behind everything (including Ukraine)

No way Putin genuinely believes that.

He may not but he will give you a four-hour lecture about it.

He believes the CIA was behind Maidan, he believes the CIA was behind the Arab Spring, so it isn't impossible. His general mindset is that organic instances of protest or action don't really exist, and are manifestations of an exercise of power by a larger entity.

Its also partly why he doesn't think of Ukraine or Slovenia or Costa Rica or Spain as real. To him they are franchises of the US

(citations needed, as usual)

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/31/politics/navalny-russian-prisoner-database-hack/index.html

https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/article32404487.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200e/1_sdc_mdg_chp_62818.jpg

what the fuck is happening in Washington D.C.?

Leaving Celtic for the MLS?

the 4 concert hall terrorists are in a video where they say (Chechens speaking Russian, all using the same words) that they were to contact someone in Ukraine.

That's how they earned a bowl of soup

hired by a Putin crony, told someone else hired them, told where to go and when, ambushed on the way back into Ukraine by a waiting military squad who was either in on it or "tipped off" as to their whereabouts.