totally agree
ironically, after decades of strict adherence to chicago-style "perfectly competitive" models of the labor market where none of this stuff can matter, labor economists are just now catching up to the level of applebees' execs understandings of the labor market
it sounds insane (and is) but it's only in the last 5-10 years that the statement "employers set their own wages" has reached consensus. the previous consensus was that competition was so fierce, employers had no choice but to pay the going market wage
― flopson, Sunday, 27 March 2022 19:40 (two years ago) link
if gas prices cut into disposable incomes, that would also mean less demand for applebee's. and as high gas prices raise costs, that would also cut into applebees' profits. whether these are offset by lower labor costs is unclear.
Well sure, but I don't think he's saying what will offset what, he's just saying it's going to get easier to hire people if they are more strapped for cash, which is not only very likely true but the principle on which low wage labor entirely depends. Also, people in the class who do low wage jobs enjoyed unprecedented government benefits in the last two years that have since either ended or are coming to an end, so looking at the recent labor market may not give you a picture of what's to come.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, 27 March 2022 20:08 (two years ago) link
I think it's good whenever people learn that this is how it works, but I wish people would understand that it's a system and not "some asshole at Applebees" (technically, not even at Applebees, just a large Applebees franchise owner) who makes it so
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, 27 March 2022 20:12 (two years ago) link
Also, people in the class who do low wage jobs enjoyed unprecedented government benefits in the last two years that have since either ended or are coming to an end, so looking at the recent labor market may not give you a picture of what's to come.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Sunday, March 27, 2022 4:08 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
it ended in September
― flopson, Sunday, 27 March 2022 21:17 (two years ago) link
i think you’re assuming/conceding a bit too much. it’s not clear that UI has a big effect on wages. wage growth didn’t change after the end of PUA. and when 21 states chose not to extend it in june didn’t have a big effect on wages. it’s not clear to me that rising gas prices will translate into lower wages either. if the labor market continues to be very tight, employers who are located far away from where workers live may even have to raise wages to compensate workers who commute
― flopson, Sunday, 27 March 2022 21:34 (two years ago) link
those dependent-child tax credits that were being delivered monthly as direct bank deposits only ended last January
― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Sunday, 27 March 2022 21:39 (two years ago) link
I mean I clearly benefit from it too. like how else can you live a dignified retirement without Applebees parent company as part of your carefully balanced SEP IRA portfolio in the 21st century amirirte folks. line. gotta. go. up. ladies and gentlemen, The Economy
― OG Bob Sacamano (will), Sunday, 27 March 2022 21:48 (two years ago) link
(jury out re me and my orbit)
those werent conditional on not working though like UI was. and the equivalent programs in Canada have little to no effect on labor force participation
― flopson, Sunday, 27 March 2022 21:50 (two years ago) link
xp aimless
like when Applebee’s guy says “we are no longer competing with the government for hiring”, he doesn’t have some special knowledge of how the labor market works, he’s just a conservative businessman saying things he believes
― flopson, Sunday, 27 March 2022 21:52 (two years ago) link
everyone seems to agree that we're headed straight for the shitbin once again, yay
― in places all over the world, real stuff be happening (voodoo chili), Thursday, 12 May 2022 18:00 (one year ago) link
exciting! https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-crypto-tech-meltdown-wall-street-investors-hell-2022-5
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 17 May 2022 20:12 (one year ago) link
NASDAQ is officially bear, yeah?
I heard some analyst saying that tech venture capitalists are now looking for 'ideas that actually work'... a stunning development
― Andy the Grasshopper, Tuesday, 17 May 2022 20:28 (one year ago) link
This was fun. https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/05/why-this-computer-scientist-says-all-cryptocurrency-should-die-in-a-fire/
― DJI, Tuesday, 17 May 2022 21:32 (one year ago) link
"And people keep finding out that just because something’s gone down 95% doesn’t mean it can’t still go down another 95%.
Grim stuff, thanks for sharing... I kept thinking I missed the boat, but you can only stay on this boat for a short time anyway
― Andy the Grasshopper, Tuesday, 17 May 2022 22:41 (one year ago) link
I get really sad whenever I hear people unthinkingly repeat that a stock drop means the stock "went on sale." Sometimes I try to use the metaphor of a Macy's "sale" price -- those shoes were never actually $550.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 01:22 (one year ago) link
that BI article via archive because my paywall blocker didn't block:https://archive.ph/gXkcO
― papal hotwife (milo z), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 02:24 (one year ago) link
Here we go
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 19:01 (one year ago) link
Did you cause a market crash again
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 18 May 2022 19:11 (one year ago) link
It's not the stock market(s), but it'd be fittingly ironic if crypto dies a sudden and gruesome death because of fed interest rate hikes.
― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 19:15 (one year ago) link
I still get my 401(k) statements in paper so I usually take a take a peek before recycling - I'm gonna sign up for paperless so I don't have to look at them
― Andy the Grasshopper, Wednesday, 18 May 2022 20:02 (one year ago) link
glad the stock market doesn't affect me, i'm having fun being poor tbh
― the cat needs to start paying for its own cbd (map), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 20:04 (one year ago) link
Andy otm, I need to just stop opening them and immediately file them away in the still sealed envelope.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 20:12 (one year ago) link
Money Printer: Can't live with brrr, can't live without brrr
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 20:29 (one year ago) link
seems good that the shitposters have so much influence
A meme account tweeted a fake headline that Costco was raising the price of their hot dogs due to inflation, and Costco's stock crashed 13%. You can't make this up. pic.twitter.com/gluBH5orcK— Chairman (@WSBChairman) May 18, 2022
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 22:17 (one year ago) link
In my budgeting software, I reconcile all of our retirement/investment accounts on daily basis. It’s just a dull pain by this point.
― Jeff, Wednesday, 18 May 2022 22:18 (one year ago) link
I would think Costco sunk today because Target and Walmart sunk today and yesterday.
― deep luminous trombone (Eazy), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 22:23 (one year ago) link
Yeah, in the correlation/causation dept, tons of stocks are tanking without any fake hotdog memes necessary
― Andy the Grasshopper, Wednesday, 18 May 2022 22:29 (one year ago) link
Probably more likely, but I thought it was funny that the fake tweet got picked up and shared by the House GOP account and a bunch of other blue check marks in the process.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 22:29 (one year ago) link
Lol y’all talking about investment accounts and retirement funds, I have 3 grand til mid-September and that’s all I’ve got absent a job falling into my lap.1500 of that eaten up by the mortgage.
― we need outrage! we need dicks!! (the table is the table), Wednesday, 18 May 2022 22:35 (one year ago) link
yeah COST was already down all month and in pm due to target, retail shitting in general.
― Yerac, Thursday, 19 May 2022 03:15 (one year ago) link
If we are entering a recession (as the stock traders fear), this will be a weird one: unemployment is about as low as it can get. Supply chain issues obviously a factor in the slowdown, fear about the Ukraine conflict spreading, slowing Chinese economy, etc. But the ultra low unemployment and strong US dollar are not historically good indicators of a looming recession
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 20 May 2022 17:17 (one year ago) link
it's a self-imposed recession that the fed and GOP will allow to end once the GOP regain power.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 20 May 2022 17:20 (one year ago) link
(so yeah, i'm not expecting a big one)
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 20 May 2022 17:21 (one year ago) link
although all this shit is over
Since the tides do indeed seem to be turning, Let’s hear it:What’s your favorite/funniest memory of the free-money, loss-making, VC-subsidized consumer start up era?— Bucco “Buyback” Capital (@buccocapital) May 20, 2022
Yeah those companies leaving unregulated dockless bikes at the dead of night scattered randomly around cities were the bane of city governments for like a year.
― DAMAGED by Black Flat (Boring, Maryland), Friday, 20 May 2022 17:32 (one year ago) link
Then they were all stolen or vandalized or dumped in creeks for city crews to clean up.
― DAMAGED by Black Flat (Boring, Maryland), Friday, 20 May 2022 17:33 (one year ago) link
I think they pulled a dozen scooters out of Lake Merritt in Oakland in a single month
But the real benefit is for the homeless who break the locks and then have a free bicycle to ride around
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 20 May 2022 17:35 (one year ago) link
I think a lot of the stock market right now is just the helium that's been pumped into it over a number of years finally being let out. But certainly massive increases in basic cost of living expenses are not going to be helpful for a consumer-driven economy.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Friday, 20 May 2022 17:38 (one year ago) link
thinking about this snippet from target's earnings report
Target: "Many guests are sharing their uncertainty of the overall state of the economy, but are feeling more positive about their personal finances."— modest proposal (@modestproposal1) May 18, 2022
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 20 May 2022 17:49 (one year ago) link
I feel like I've seen economists describing that phenomenon before, where stuff like inflation just generally makes everyone uneasy even if they are personally ok
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Friday, 20 May 2022 17:57 (one year ago) link
I heard yesterday that Target shoppers come in for the microwave popcorn, but not the microwave ovens... i.e. the higher margin appliance stuff is what's slowing down
― Andy the Grasshopper, Friday, 20 May 2022 17:59 (one year ago) link
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, May 20, 2022 1:20 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
recession--if there is one (seems likely to be a soft landing to me)--won't last until 2024 imho
― flopson, Friday, 20 May 2022 19:42 (one year ago) link
From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013. "In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 23 May 2022 17:41 (one year ago) link
it's (voters' wildly warped perception of) the economy, stupid
― in places all over the world, real stuff be happening (voodoo chili), Monday, 23 May 2022 17:54 (one year ago) link
"The report draws from the Board's ninth annual Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, or SHED, which was conducted in October and November of last year before the increase in COVID-19 cases from the Omicron variant and other changes to the economic landscape in recent months."
i think some things have changed since then idk
― the cat needs to start paying for its own cbd (map), Monday, 23 May 2022 17:57 (one year ago) link
"other changes" -- like the cessation of the increased, paid-monthly child tax credits? defunding SNAP? knocking the added supports out of unemployment insurance?
― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Monday, 23 May 2022 19:35 (one year ago) link
I just signed a new electricity contract and my rates doubled vs. last summer. Not sure voters perceptions are warped much less wildly so.
― papal hotwife (milo z), Monday, 23 May 2022 20:40 (one year ago) link
yeah but that's texas, right?
― mookieproof, Monday, 23 May 2022 20:43 (one year ago) link