Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

low rates absolutely do support the job market aiui. a decision to raise rates is a decision to make people unemployed.

I realize this is very squishy and observational, but it seemed to me like in both of the last crises (2008 and COVID), the enormous amount of monetary stimulus immediately had a strong upward effect on asset prices, but took much longer to have an impact on things that help ordinary people (and had a much smaller impact).

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, January 25, 2022 11:48 AM (twenty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

moreso in 2008, due to the debt-deleveraging cycle which was mostly avoided in the covid recession (partly due to way more powerful fiscal policy response)

i think it's now widespread (if not consensus) among mainstream macroeconomists that the pre-2008 neoliberal consensus view of the dominance of monetary policy was wrong. fiscal policy is effective when monetary policy is not, and is also complementary in a bunch of ways

low rates juicing asset prices is one channel whereby monetary policy affects inequality. if you could narrowly isolate that channel, i tentatively agree it would increase inequality. but i don't think it makes sense to think of that channel in isolation from the other downstream effects of monetary policy on output and employment

i agree with you on the broader point that fiscal policy is important for getting the redistributive side of countercyclical policy right. but high rates are bad even if you like fiscal stimulus because they make it more expensive

I agree. All that stimulus money should have just gone to the ordinary people.

― removing bookmarks never felt so good (PBKR), Tuesday, January 25, 2022 12:12 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

central bank setting interest rates is not equivalent to or incompatible with giving out stimulus money though. central bank doing more QE or setting lower rates does not prevent the fiscal authority from doing more stimulus. in the case of low rates it's complementary.

most stimulus money in the last recession went out to employers in the paycheck protection program (which a recent paper found was an effective but extremely expensive way to preserve employment relationships https://www.nber.org/papers/w29669), or to workers in the form of expanded UI benefits, or to everyone in the form of stimulus checks

low rates absolutely do support the job market aiui. a decision to raise rates is a decision to make people unemployed.

― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, January 25, 2022 12:26 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm

GDP growth dramatically outpaced forecasts made a year ago. Most forecasters expected the economy to grow 3 to 4 percent this year. Instead it has grown 5.5 percent. That is more than a percentage point faster than even the most optimistic forecast was expecting. pic.twitter.com/ocZ3S41sWW

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) January 27, 2022

If the economy is so great how come I see “Help Wanted” signs everywhere, answer me that smart guy?

The economy is so great, people need help with it!

the redundancy of that tweet’s last sentence is sublime

That is more than 1.49 percentage points, even!!!

As I read that chart, "the most optimistic forecast" was from the FOMC, who predicted 4.2% growth. That's in contrast to "most forecasters", who were slightly less optimistic.

this is funny

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5dg5qz/what-you-learn-from-a-year-of-watching-bad-financial-advice-on-tiktok

but not as funny if you chase it with

https://inthesetimes.com/article/the-ticking-bomb-of-crypto-fascism

Here's a really wild chart.

Shares of Hilton have now matched the performance of Zoom since February 19, 2020, the market right before the pandemic.

Just incredible reversal of the "COVID winners" trade. The hotel business is booming. https://t.co/ZnyYdIut2Q $HLT $ZM pic.twitter.com/qz1eYqx3bv

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) February 15, 2022

Hotel rooms got crazy expensive

Honestly surprising given the cancellations of conferences and weddings, the kinds of things that sell ballroom space and blocks of rooms.

they've also stopped cleaning/refilling everything automatically every day

Isn't the story more than Zoom's insane hype has died down while Hilton basically coasted back to where it was (factoring in the general performance and inflation of the market)?

I should add: crazy expensive and (for the last 5-6 months or so) more popular than you’d think

hey things are kind of expensive in general now

Yeah

This tracks with our local hotel market, I was just talking to someone in the industry last week. She said their business travel is still substantially down, but it's been more than compensated for by a boom in leisure travel. And also what they call "B-leisure," which is a combo thing where people on a business trip bring their families and stay a few extra days, turning it into a working vacation. This has been greatly abetted by remote work, people aren't pressured to come back home to the office.

Software CEOs need to delete Headspace and watch this clip every morning pic.twitter.com/gXC2dtGxce

— E-BIT-dee-AY Exit Multi🅿️le.usd (💵,💵) (@ExitMultiple) February 17, 2022

legally

yikes, needed a tw tbh

he must be right, because he yells and swears and calls me a moron, just like my daddy used to**

**not actually true

what is he actually talking about

And who is he?

what is he actually talking about

considering the profile of E-BIT-dee-AY Exit Multi🅿️le.usd, he's yelling about cryptocurrency

it's kind of sweet that he proudly announces that he's the financial equivalent of a rapist, then expects you to give full credence to his financial advice. he might as well have told his audience he'll absolutely, 100% guaranteed pull it out before he cums.

It’s a crypto thing

never trust a man wearing red socks

I look forwar to the days when I can rent a car again at less than it would cost to buy th ecar

We just booked a car from Hertz for June, even with the “manager’s special” — you take whatever they have abaila

Lol just noticed the end of that post got chopped off. Was saying, even with taking whatever they have on the lot, it’s $500 for 6 days.

That's honestly pretty good from what I went through last summer. o_O

Right before the pandemic, I booked one for 6 days in California. A Nissan Altima or something. 225$.

Yeah, I don’t rent cars very often, so I still have in my head that it’s like $30-$40 a day.

It was my first time, and I ended up having to get a refund because of the pandemic!

Oh no you're absolutely right, that's what I paid in summer 2020. But summer 2021 was remarkable--at one point last August I was quoted prices of several hundred dollars PER DAY.

I rented a car just ONCE, a few years ago, for work travel. (And had no choice but to rent it for logistical reasons.) The cost might have been $200-$300 for 3-4 days and I was ultimately reimbursed, but this was a crazy new, super tech car I’d never have had a chance to drive otherwise- a Dodge Charger or something - and I was constantly terrified about car accidents, thefts, dents. Just paranoid as hell and relieved when I turned it in at the airport.

This stuff is part of why when I travel for pleasure it’s cabs and Uber. $500 for 6 days? Yikes.

my car insurance has a clause to cover rentals too so I dont worry to much about that - more about spills on th einterior!

When I lived in Queens my trick was always just to rent from LaGuardia -- even if I had to take an Uber there it worked out very reasonable, like $40-50/day and NYC rental prices were always outrageous otherwise. I'm sure it's much worse now though.

Stewart Airport in Orange County is about to restart a bus service to and from NYC because I guess they're hoping their investment in a new terminal and a new European budget airline partnership will pay off. There's a car rental office at the airport, I'd definitely try that if I were looking for better pricing once that bus service starts.

trains wou ld be better if you could have your own private bubble

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/cpi-inflation-february-2022-.html

Inflation rose 7.9% in February, as food and energy costs push prices to highest in more than 40 years

we are making significant changes to our budget that was already on life support before this. really feeling this at the grocery store the last few trips.

We are very lucky to be able to weather this fine, but any budget we made has pretty much gone out the window. Hard to see how anyone can deal with it if they don’t have slack to begin with.

Time to write another big check to the food bank.

yeah, I have a monthly contribution to a few different food banks and it's time to up it

was just thinking about some of the progress made on child poverty rates last year with the child tax credit. Now with that gone and the current inflation rate these kids will suffer the most.

“OIL BALL”

H/T @AdsoOfBelk @_Jason_Dean_ @pacpaxpam https://t.co/T9KrTBLSVO pic.twitter.com/caKbbvhWdX

— MOAR Drilling (@MOAR_Drilling) March 10, 2022

Calling this now: Omicron breaking through in China will be a double whammy for global trade and therefore inflation.

China just declared a 7-day lockdown in Shenzhen -- home of one of the world's largest ports.https://t.co/5KhOESgbbi

— Christopher Mims 🤌 (@mims) March 13, 2022

hell yeah

Wayne Pankratz of @Applebees says that higher gas prices are great for business because most employees live check to check and hopefully they can start lowering wages. pic.twitter.com/BiRfeSmsYX

— Rob Gill 🇨🇦❤️🇺🇦 (@vote4robgill) March 23, 2022

weird, PUA ended almost 7 months ago