hall of fame, next vote...

Posnanski has a piece today comparing Ortiz and Sheffield--the link should work even if you don't subscribe.

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/ortiz-and-sheffield?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

i don't get why Sheff doesn't have more support

Putting aside the PED issue, my guess as to the main reason is the itinerant nature of his career: 8 teams in total, from one to six seasons at each stop. I suspect the great majority of HOF'ers are strongly identified with one or (someone like Reggie) two teams. Even Rickey Henderson, who played for nine, comes down to the A's and the Yankees. I don't think Sheffield has that strong team-association--not with me, anyway,

I suppose there's a certain amount of circular logic (or illogic) in that; one of the reasons Sheffield's not strongly associated with one or two teams is he had HOF seasons almost everywhere he played, without having one of those epic seasons for anybody.

Padres 1992: 33 HR/100 RBI/.330/.385/.580
Marlins 1996: 42 HR/120 RBI/.314/.465/.624
Dodgers 2000: 43 HR/109 RBI/.325/.438/.643
Braves 2003: 39 HR/132 RBI/.330/.419/.604
Yankees 2004: 36 HR/121 RBI/.290/.393/.534

Just used old-school stats for simplicity...The most impressive might have been the Padres--almost a Triple Crown pre-PED. He's starting to run out of gas with the Yankees, but I don't know how many players can claim five seasons that good with five different teams.

he was on the padres?!

Second team, I believe, after the Brewers. His '92 season really was great. He missed the TC by two home runs (McGriff had 35) and nine RBI (Daulton had 109). Bonds deservedly won MVP, but he many seasons he would have picked up an MVP.

The most impressive might have been the Padres--almost a Triple Crown pre-PED

Guys were using PED's before offense started blowing up in 1993 ... there's no reason to assume he was cleaner in that season than in any other season.

Playing for so many teams definitely hurts his case ("if he was so great, why didn't teams want him to stick around?") but I think it really comes down to 35 HR 110 RBI seasons being so common in that era. Like pre-finger wagging Raffy Palmeiro, he was consistent but nowhere close to being the top player in his league, and thus nobody thought of him as a HOF player.

I'm sure some were, but surely it was far less widespread. In any event, '92 was definitely a pitcher's year. 33/100/.330 wouldn't be remotely close to a Triple Crown in the years that followed. (NL in 1992: .252/.315/.368, 3.50 ERA. NL in 2000: .266/.343/.432, 4.63 ERA.)

That team with McGriff, Sheffield, and Gwynn in the lineup was easy to root for.

Sheffield was pretty much a mercurial mercenary. I think the only fanbase that really seemed to profess 'love' for him was those couple years in Atlanta and then he moved on.

He was an enfant terrible in Milwaukee. SD was pretty much the Padres cutting payroll. Won a ring with the Marlins and then was the only high paid guy on some terrible clubs that followed the purge. He was on some middling Dodgers team and there was some turmoil there. He went to ATL and then there was the whole "Chef" thing - which is the only time I really can recall him being a fan favorite type guy. He won another ring with the Yanks, but those fans love you when you do well and you are a bum the rest of the of time and he was like the 6th or 7th most famous guy on the club anyway.

Sheffield was a tough hitter, dude had a really good eye and for as much power as he had was kinda hard to strike out. That tomahawk swing was nasty and cool to see when he would pull a pitch at full strength. I'm sure more than a few third basemen got scared of their wits trying to deal with some of those rockets.

Flipping through a program at the 1989 Junior League World Series -- held since its 1981 inception in Taylor, MI, scenic hometown of Barves great Steve Avery and late Kid Rock hype man Joe C. -- I was stunned to see 13-year-old Sheff and the future Operation Shutdown in a team photo for '82 tournament champions Belmont Heights (Tampa, FL).

Basically just tracking Ortiz at this point, and he's really solidified his chances: 41.3% of the vote public and he's climbed (steadily) to 84%. He needs to get 68.7% the rest of the way. He will drop if the usual dynamic holds--PED association hurts you on the ballots that stay private--but I don't know if he'll drop that much.

Hour-long podcast of Posnanski and Bob Costas talking about the HOF:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/talking-hall-with-bob-costas?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The HOF talk is pretty good, but Costas (who I usually like a lot) starts wandering off-topic near the end, and Posnanski lets him wander, and it starts to get a little tedious.

Tomorrow...Ortiz may come in close if he loses undeclared-ballot support. Rolen is at 70% right now; might get a little closer, but can't see it. Next year for sure.

Doesn't seem to be a whole lot of interest here, but Ortiz got in (not sure how close it was).

what a joke

ortiz: 77.9%

bonds: 66
clemens: 65.2
rolen: 63.2
sheffield: 40.6
a-rod: 34.3

schilling at 58.6

Ha haahahaha!

Very clear, consistent message here.

In trying to separate Ortiz from Clemens and Bonds, I almost want to put it down to Ortiz's magnetic personality and paraphrase Sam Jackson in Pulp Fiction: we're talking about one charming motherfucking DH/PED-user. Except Sosa had personality to spare.

Bonds made me a baseball fan, what he did on the field made other men seem small by comparison. i get that he cheated but not getting a ring is his punishment. not being voted in when other cheaters from this era are in is stupid.

I'm surprised today Schilling got so many votes, I thought he'd see a Visquel-like dropoff. Besides being all kinds of crazy, if a player says he doesn't want to be considered then AFAIC that's that. What's the endgame for the people who voted for him? Do they think that if he gets in he'll morph into a nice guy all of a sudden and have a "moment" at the induction ceremony?

I'm really happy for Ortiz, this should have been a no brainer but somehow became a big debate. WAR isn't everything. When Posey and Molina are on the ballot will people still say "they're only 6563th all time in WAR with 50 unelected players ahead of them"?

much less than i expected. i thought it was still going to be close, figuring those already voting for him would have been prone to stubbornness

so Jeff Francis is going into the Canadian baseball hall of fame. played 11 season, had a career ERA of 10.2 and an ERA just south of 5...

even tho i never made my high school baseball team, seeing this i feel like i should have stuck with it and could have had a shot at the Canadian hall of fame too

tbf there are 16 canadian batters who've played 1000 games and 12 canadian pitchers who've pitched 1000 innings. he's one of the latter, and he ranks 13th in pitcher WAR and fifth in games started

big halls, baby

Trying to think of what Canadians would make up that other 12 ahead of him in WAR... Jenkins - obvs, Dempster, Rich Harden... ahhhh I should know this! Gagne, Quantrill?! someone help!

there are two others i think you should get, the rest seem harder (to me)

Reggie Cleveland?

John Hiller, for sure.

I'm kind of amazed Reggie Cleveland fell short. Always thought of him as a decent pitcher, and he was around long enough to win 100 games.

I looked it up. Should have gotten two more than I did.

I don't know how to look that up...who else?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/Canada_born.shtml

the two i missed that i should have gotten were Paxton and Bedard.

I have no recollection of Francis ending his career with the Blue Jays in 2015.

this is a contribution to the project of critiquing mlb.com headlines:

https://i.imgur.com/Dlaj1so.png

speaking as someone who personally _would_ vote for yadier molina in the hall of fame: has there ever been a borderline hall of famer whose case was pre-ordained as him?

By WAR, he's borderline but I would argue that WAR does a poor job of recording the true value of a great catcher, especially one like Yadi whose value is tied to his defense.

among catchers of his era, only posey and mauer are clearly better. (arguments can be made for russell martin and brian mccann, but few will make them)

between that, and doing it forever, and his rep vs. basestealers, i don’t think it will matter that he’s nowhere near piazza or ivan rodriguez

I wonder if the phrase "Future Hall of Famer" helps someone who's maybe on the fence--do some writers begin to internalize that after enough repetition?

*gestures at the world writ large*

have we discussed the trajectory of nolan arenado? because it seems pretty promising

looking good but so did longoria once. i'm wondering if this season is an illusion with hitting. outperforming his xwOBA by a ton, which he's always done but that's at least expected in coors (xwOBA isn't park adjusted). also hitting back up to his career .292 BABIP average, but that's always been coors-boosted too. there's a much larger post-coors sample from 20-21 with a .247 BABIP which basically made him a one dimensional power hitter. it'll probably stabilize somewhere between those two points but if he starts losing power i could see him falling off the face of the earth pretty quickly

one thing he has over longo - all the defensive metrics like him a lot better. had no idea longo's numbers fell off so drastically after his first four extremely good seasons.

winning a golden glove every single year he's played may not be super-meaningful, but nor will it hurt

Arenado looks like a very good bet. I was always really skeptical about his offense, but his two years out of Coors have been good.

(And Walker, and soon Helton probably, make his path easier.)

i was also skeptical, especially after in his first year in busch stadium his offense declined somewhat, about to the level you'd expect after moving half of your home games from coors to st louis. but his defense, unlike someone like pujols, will keep him relevant and at least somewhat valuable through his 30s. he's not brooks robinson, but he is in a tier just below with rolen, beltre, schmidt, and some others i'm probably forgetting. and unless injury strikes, he seems like he can pull off a couple more elite offensive seasons before he's done. good lord he's slow though

winning a golden glove every single year he's played may not be super-meaningful, but nor will it hurt

― mookieproof, Monday, August 1, 2022 9:15 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

i was gonna try to make another longoria counterpoint but he only ever won 3 of them!

Winning 9 in a row speaks to his reputation more than his performance, which bodes well for his hof chances imo

Posnanski evaluates candidates born between 1978-1987 (all upcoming). Arguing at the margins here, but I strongly disagree with the following:

1) Posey better than 50/50 but Molina a lock. I'm positive Posey will be first-ballot and Molina won't be.

2) Votto better than 50/50 (rather than a lock).

He does acknowledge both those as contentious. I think I'd move Greinke into the lock category too.

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/hall-of-fame-candidates-by-birth?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email