hall of fame, next vote...

Lost in all of the hubbub over who was/wasn't elected is this:

The Rule of 2,000 has been broken, as Tony Oliva had "only" 1,917 hits, making him the first candidate whose career took place during the post-1960 expansion era with <2000 to be elected by either BBWAA or committee.

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) December 6, 2021

That benchmark will be obliterated when Posey comes up for induction.

The Hall of Guys That Were Decent Enough I Guess.

secretly, jay jaffe is like "hahaha, now i can amend all my annual pieces on all of the hall of fame candidates to discuss the role of the recently obliterated Rule of 2000, ahahaha"

Hodges was inevitable, I guess. He was like Anthony Rizzo, a key offensive player on a very famous team that won an all-time memorable championship. If you're a Big Hall person then he's a perfectly reasonable pick, even if there are others more deserving (like Dick Allen, whose time will come).

I think the real lesson of the Oliva and Minoso elections is that voters are finally giving more weight to peak value than career value, and it's about time. From the 70's until about ten years ago basically any player without 300 wins or 3000 hits could be in for a long wait. I'd rather have a Hall of Short Term Superstars than a Hall of Very Good for a Long Time. The HOF can be both (and in fact is) but if I had to choose, that's what I'd prefer.

I lean that way too (with something like Jay Jaffe's 7-year window for peak as a floor; I wouldn't want to induct Josh Hamilton).

I don't know how much I'd read into Veteran Committee inductees, though. They inducted Baines two years ago--about as un-peak a selection as you can get--and this year Kaat, also much more a career value pick. I think the VC picks have more to do with who's on the panel, and lifelong affiliations. Carew and Schmidt, both teammates of Kaat, were two of the 16 voters this year; there may be other connections I'm not aware of.

The writers may be moving in a peak direction, but I think they still lean towards career. The fate of Andruw Jones might be instructive one way or the other.

Didn't know Buck O'Neil and Joe Carter had some history:

https://www.mlb.com/news/joe-carter-lee-smith-discuss-buck-o-neil-hall-of-fame-election

It's true that the Veterans Committee makes iffy career value picks as well, but that doesn't affect the notion that (as Jaffe noted, and I think he's correct) the door is slowly opening for more peak value candidates.

Posnanski's Top 10 not in the Hall:

No. 1: Curt Flood
No. 2: John Donaldson
Nos. 3 and 4: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens
No. 5: Dick Allen
No. 6: Lou Whitaker
No. 7: Scott Rolen
No. 8: Dwight Evans
No. 9: Dale Murphy
No. 10: Tommy John

someone is going to have to explain the case for John Donaldson for me (i don't disagree, just a blind-spot in my baseball knowledge).

Same with me, sorry to say. (He's got a name that was tailor-made for a backup catcher with good defense and a .230 batting average, but I know he wasn't that.)

Joe's entry is reasonably short.

No. 2: John Donaldson

Sunday’s Hall of Fame announcement was so joyful, such a bounty of good news, that it’s too easy to overlook the disappointments. John Donaldson so obviously belongs in the Hall of Fame. He should have been elected many, many years ago. It has taken the extraordinary efforts of a man named Peter Gorton and many Donaldson Network volunteers to catalog Donaldson’s overwhelming achievements in Black baseball, starting a decade before Jackie Robinson was even born.

The Donaldson Network has verified that as Donaldson barnstormed around America in those years before and after the Negro leagues were founded, he won more than 400 games, struck out more than 5,000 batters and threw many, many no-hitters. They uncovered dozens of stories that referred to him as “the greatest pitcher in the world.” They highlighted a quote from J.L. Wilkinson, the white owner of the Kansas City Monarchs who probably saw Satchel Paige pitch as much or more than anyone: “Paige is a great a pitcher all right … but Donaldson had more stuff.”

Buck O’Neil used to say that Donaldson was the pitcher who showed Paige what was possible.

Donaldson received eight out 16 votes on Sunday … and I feel confident that when his name comes up again on the ballot, he will get elected. The thing is, the Early Era Committee is not scheduled to meet again for another 10 years.

I was thinking about Dwight Evans, who was the atypical player who peaked late: his best years were from age 29 to 35 or 36. Does a late peak help or hurt? I can see an argument on either side. It hurts because by the time you peak, a lot of sportswriters have probably decided you aren't a HOF'er (the opposite transpired with Jim Rice). But it could conceivably help, too, in that your best seasons are still relatively fresh in voters' minds.

Ya, I’d think a hot start to a career would be the most helpful. You’re a “superstar” much longer than someone who peaked later (as far as establishing a narrative is concerned).

Bonds and Clemens, both in their final year on the ballot, are at just over 80% right now. I know that means nothing--only 27 ballots, and they always start strong.

I was thinking that MLB might actually be hoping they get in this year. With absolutely nothing to keep baseball a topic of conversation over the winter, the amount of publicity attached to Bonds and Clemens getting elected would be a gift.

Nightmare scenario, especially for the BBWAA: Clemens elected, Bonds falls short. There'd be a lot of 'splaining to do there.

hoooooly shit that would be a shitstorm

the individual writers who vote for one but not the other usually have some specious story about how He Was Hall-Worthy Before I Think He *Really* Got Into Steroids

it ain't happening

Bonds and Clemens need to flip 50-something no votes from last year to yes votes this year. So far they have flipped zero (Bonds actually has one flip in the other direction).

— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) December 16, 2021

interesting that all of the 8 voters who've dropped vizquel so far (likely due to recent sexual assault allegations) have still maintained their votes for either bonds, clemens or jones

just don't get caught recently i guess

I suspected as much (re Bonds/Clemens).

Ortiz started slow--lost 4 or 5 votes right away--but he's really broke through since: 83.3% through 42 ballots. He'll have to build up a cushion if he loses the usual PED-associated votes towards the end.

Seriously: why would they allow this person to continue voting?

Ballot #54 is from Michael Hunt, who submits a blank ballot. Like the voter who submitted the first blank ballot revealed this year, Hunt also submitted a blank ballot last year after a Jeter-only ballot two cycles ago.

In the Tracker: https://t.co/sziMyHO62y pic.twitter.com/AVWYYJqpZS

— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) December 23, 2021

One of those split Bonds/Clemens ballots explained (Keith Law):

Roger Clemens: Clemens did not appear on my ballot, which I think is the first time I have stopped voting for a player for whom I voted in the past. We’ve known for a while now that Clemens had an inappropriate relationship with the late country singer Mindy McCready, which the New York Daily News reported began when McCready was 15 and Clemens was 28. McCready confirmed to the Daily News that the two had an affair, though she later said that it didn’t begin until she was 18. I was wrong to vote for him in the past. The character clause is not well defined by the Hall of Fame, and there are players in the Hall whose character was questionable and players on my ballot whose character was questionable. But if Clemens’ transgressions with McCready don’t call for invoking the character clause, then we might as well remove it entirely. That’s why I declined to vote for him now, a small and perhaps futile stand on principle in his last year of eligibility.

Posnanski has a piece today comparing Ortiz and Sheffield--the link should work even if you don't subscribe.

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/ortiz-and-sheffield?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

i don't get why Sheff doesn't have more support

Putting aside the PED issue, my guess as to the main reason is the itinerant nature of his career: 8 teams in total, from one to six seasons at each stop. I suspect the great majority of HOF'ers are strongly identified with one or (someone like Reggie) two teams. Even Rickey Henderson, who played for nine, comes down to the A's and the Yankees. I don't think Sheffield has that strong team-association--not with me, anyway,

I suppose there's a certain amount of circular logic (or illogic) in that; one of the reasons Sheffield's not strongly associated with one or two teams is he had HOF seasons almost everywhere he played, without having one of those epic seasons for anybody.

Padres 1992: 33 HR/100 RBI/.330/.385/.580
Marlins 1996: 42 HR/120 RBI/.314/.465/.624
Dodgers 2000: 43 HR/109 RBI/.325/.438/.643
Braves 2003: 39 HR/132 RBI/.330/.419/.604
Yankees 2004: 36 HR/121 RBI/.290/.393/.534

Just used old-school stats for simplicity...The most impressive might have been the Padres--almost a Triple Crown pre-PED. He's starting to run out of gas with the Yankees, but I don't know how many players can claim five seasons that good with five different teams.

he was on the padres?!

Second team, I believe, after the Brewers. His '92 season really was great. He missed the TC by two home runs (McGriff had 35) and nine RBI (Daulton had 109). Bonds deservedly won MVP, but he many seasons he would have picked up an MVP.

The most impressive might have been the Padres--almost a Triple Crown pre-PED

Guys were using PED's before offense started blowing up in 1993 ... there's no reason to assume he was cleaner in that season than in any other season.

Playing for so many teams definitely hurts his case ("if he was so great, why didn't teams want him to stick around?") but I think it really comes down to 35 HR 110 RBI seasons being so common in that era. Like pre-finger wagging Raffy Palmeiro, he was consistent but nowhere close to being the top player in his league, and thus nobody thought of him as a HOF player.

I'm sure some were, but surely it was far less widespread. In any event, '92 was definitely a pitcher's year. 33/100/.330 wouldn't be remotely close to a Triple Crown in the years that followed. (NL in 1992: .252/.315/.368, 3.50 ERA. NL in 2000: .266/.343/.432, 4.63 ERA.)

That team with McGriff, Sheffield, and Gwynn in the lineup was easy to root for.

Sheffield was pretty much a mercurial mercenary. I think the only fanbase that really seemed to profess 'love' for him was those couple years in Atlanta and then he moved on.

He was an enfant terrible in Milwaukee. SD was pretty much the Padres cutting payroll. Won a ring with the Marlins and then was the only high paid guy on some terrible clubs that followed the purge. He was on some middling Dodgers team and there was some turmoil there. He went to ATL and then there was the whole "Chef" thing - which is the only time I really can recall him being a fan favorite type guy. He won another ring with the Yanks, but those fans love you when you do well and you are a bum the rest of the of time and he was like the 6th or 7th most famous guy on the club anyway.

Sheffield was a tough hitter, dude had a really good eye and for as much power as he had was kinda hard to strike out. That tomahawk swing was nasty and cool to see when he would pull a pitch at full strength. I'm sure more than a few third basemen got scared of their wits trying to deal with some of those rockets.

Flipping through a program at the 1989 Junior League World Series -- held since its 1981 inception in Taylor, MI, scenic hometown of Barves great Steve Avery and late Kid Rock hype man Joe C. -- I was stunned to see 13-year-old Sheff and the future Operation Shutdown in a team photo for '82 tournament champions Belmont Heights (Tampa, FL).

Basically just tracking Ortiz at this point, and he's really solidified his chances: 41.3% of the vote public and he's climbed (steadily) to 84%. He needs to get 68.7% the rest of the way. He will drop if the usual dynamic holds--PED association hurts you on the ballots that stay private--but I don't know if he'll drop that much.

Hour-long podcast of Posnanski and Bob Costas talking about the HOF:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/talking-hall-with-bob-costas?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The HOF talk is pretty good, but Costas (who I usually like a lot) starts wandering off-topic near the end, and Posnanski lets him wander, and it starts to get a little tedious.

Tomorrow...Ortiz may come in close if he loses undeclared-ballot support. Rolen is at 70% right now; might get a little closer, but can't see it. Next year for sure.

Doesn't seem to be a whole lot of interest here, but Ortiz got in (not sure how close it was).

what a joke

ortiz: 77.9%

bonds: 66
clemens: 65.2
rolen: 63.2
sheffield: 40.6
a-rod: 34.3

schilling at 58.6

Ha haahahaha!

Very clear, consistent message here.

In trying to separate Ortiz from Clemens and Bonds, I almost want to put it down to Ortiz's magnetic personality and paraphrase Sam Jackson in Pulp Fiction: we're talking about one charming motherfucking DH/PED-user. Except Sosa had personality to spare.

Bonds made me a baseball fan, what he did on the field made other men seem small by comparison. i get that he cheated but not getting a ring is his punishment. not being voted in when other cheaters from this era are in is stupid.

I'm surprised today Schilling got so many votes, I thought he'd see a Visquel-like dropoff. Besides being all kinds of crazy, if a player says he doesn't want to be considered then AFAIC that's that. What's the endgame for the people who voted for him? Do they think that if he gets in he'll morph into a nice guy all of a sudden and have a "moment" at the induction ceremony?

I'm really happy for Ortiz, this should have been a no brainer but somehow became a big debate. WAR isn't everything. When Posey and Molina are on the ballot will people still say "they're only 6563th all time in WAR with 50 unelected players ahead of them"?

much less than i expected. i thought it was still going to be close, figuring those already voting for him would have been prone to stubbornness

so Jeff Francis is going into the Canadian baseball hall of fame. played 11 season, had a career ERA of 10.2 and an ERA just south of 5...

even tho i never made my high school baseball team, seeing this i feel like i should have stuck with it and could have had a shot at the Canadian hall of fame too

tbf there are 16 canadian batters who've played 1000 games and 12 canadian pitchers who've pitched 1000 innings. he's one of the latter, and he ranks 13th in pitcher WAR and fifth in games started

big halls, baby