why don’t you drive an EV?

I've pretty much zeroed in on the Mach-E and am probably going to put a deposit on one before the end of the year to get the EV credit.

feel like the transition away from ICEs is going to suddenly go very very fast (as fast as the supply chain allows) over the next year or two.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, November 29, 2021 1:14 PM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i dont think itll happen until the government makes it

which is not to say that evs wont sell better than they do now but they barely sell now

big impediments to adoption imo

cost
inconvenience of charging
bad usa culture*

*not sure if other countries have this

norway has mandated evs by 2025 which i dont think would fly here but theres lots of other stuff the government could do like bigger subsidies better emission standards etc but of course the thing they should do is... give everyone ebikes https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/22/opinion/free-ebikes-climate.html

which is not to say that evs wont sell better than they do now but they barely sell now

― lag∞n, Monday, November 29, 2021 1:58 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

friend you are forgetting a little place called the rest of the world

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/FT_21.05.21_ElectricVehicles_1.png

europe and china are going to be over 50% within a couple of years.

because the government is making them

sure

will be interesting to see what happens to countries whos governments dont make as big of an ev push as the industry starts to put more of their efforts towards evs, idk if it will matter that much theyre prob happy to just keep making and selling whatever cars, you can still get a brand new land cruiser 70 in australia which is a nearly 40 year old model, will prob make more of a difference at the top of the market if all of the r&d is going towards evs

but like in mexico or vietnam, countries that buy a lot of cars but arent great at infrastructure, could take a long time, also if the usa wont get with the program thats a problem

eh i think every market, once it reaches 10% passenger EV, is going to get from 10% to say 60-70% very quickly (literally in 2-3 years), subsidies or not. once you see mass market EVs you think buying an ICE would be crazy because it will have no resale value in 5 years. the slow bit (where subsidies and strategies like focussing on rich nerds are important) is getting to 10%. after that it's going to go faster than people expect.

my theory is the US is going to do the 10%-60% bit as fast as anywhere, but is going to get stuck at ~60% for longer than most markets because 20% of the country has mostly legit range anxiety, and 20% of the country has a kink about committing suicide to own the libs.

the subsidies are important because evs are really expensive

aside from mandating them the biggest thing the government could do for evs is prob to make the subsidies big enough that they cost the same as gas cars

in countries where gas is heavily taxed that already tilts the formula more towards evs, but not in the ol usa baby

not for long https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34992832/battery-price-drop-2023/ xxp

the most important EV in the U.S. will be the success or failure of the Ford F150 EV, because ultimately you're going to have to convince the "Suburban guys who drive giant pickups for literally no reason" demographic for EVs to be mainstream

battery prices dropping by 10x over a few years, and multiple auto makers getting into the family EV market at the same time ... the supply chain is the limit.

not for long https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34992832/battery-price-drop-2023/ xxp

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, November 29, 2021 2:37 PM (nineteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

thats like one year away and evs cost ~10k more than comparable gas car right now, seem ambitious

we'll see

over under on biden's "50% of new passenger vehicle sales being electric" target? he says 2030. that seems insanely pessimistic to me in 2021, in a way it didn't like 2 years ago. i'm saying 2026.

bidens target seems reasonable to me but also biden could make it happen faster if he wanted lol

i think there's nothing he could do to stop it

will be interesting if the auto industry starts lobbying the government to do more for evs then you have a face off between the traditional allies big car and big oil

wonder what the range number is that makes the charing problem go away seems like we must be approaching it

it's a strong function of charging infra, right? i don't actually own an EV so i don't really know how much that's improved over the past couple of years. i know there's a bunch of money for it in the infra bill in the US?

actually that's not true, i own a cargo e-bike with two child seats aka babe magnet.

wonder how much the temporary fact that a 3 year old used car is almost as expensive as a new car, and if you're going to buy new you may as well buy electric, has pushed up people's timetables. shame there weren't more normal people EVs available when covid started.

it's a strong function of charging infra, right? i don't actually own an EV so i don't really know how much that's improved over the past couple of years. i know there's a bunch of money for it in the infra bill in the US?

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, November 29, 2021 2:53 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

im sure thats part of it but also just the distance your car can go on one full charge has got to be a big part of it too, like if you know you can do many days of usual driving and charge it at home when its convenient then for most people thats prob enough, and if theyre worried about long drives which are rare to non existent for the vast majority of people thats covered too, feel like you want to be able to charge where you park at night and also not have to track and worry about it too much

cause that stat where 20% of ev buyers were going back to gas cars for their next one is bad, you cant have the very motivated to buy electric people crapping out

but like in mexico or vietnam, countries that buy a lot of cars but arent great at infrastructure, could take a long time, also if the usa wont get with the program thats a problem

― lag∞n, Tuesday, 30 November 2021 6:27 AM (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Vinfast will respectfully disagree with you. They are rapidly building the cars and infrastructure in Vietnam.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/19/vietnamese-carmaker-vinfast-plots-course-for-us-market-starting-with-two-electric-crossovers/

Tracer, on your picks

We don’t have the MG5 down here but we do have the MGZS and it’s a good car but let down by poor efficiency, it uses more electricity than it should and range suffers. YMMV as they say.

A good option might be a second hand OG Ioniq or Kona. My Ioniqs are holding up really well after 80,000km. Battery performance is holding up really well and the ioniq will sit around 13kWh/100km all day every day. Ioniq fast charging performance could be better. If you can find one that has just had the recall, or is due for one then you might get a good deal and get a completely fresh battery into the bargain.

thats nice that theres an vietnamese company that gave a press release to tech crunch i guess

my theory is the US is going to do the 10%-60% bit as fast as anywhere, but is going to get stuck at ~60% for longer than most markets, because 20% of the country has mostly legit range anxiety, and 20% of the country has a kink about committing suicide to own the libs.

so the same trajectory as COVID vaccine, basically, and for roughly the same reasons

if range anxiety pushes people to buy used trad hybrids then i'm 100% fine with that because it's better for the environment and tbh what anyone who drives less than 5000m year should probably do.

when was this? may be due at least in part to the bit of the US population that owns an EV being pretty weird in a lot of ways (tendency to try new tech for the sake of it, high disposable income, etc.), and the median EV being worse in terms of range than they are now.

xp ha this did cross my mind!

imo the vast majority of people who don't do a daily commute should get a used battery hybrid as their next car. range anxiety goes away, better net for the environment than a new EV, etc.

i wonder how many of those 20% who want to go back to gas cars got a tesla with panels that don't line up and let the rain in. do they still make those or have they gotten better?

more car than i need right now but they are cool.

Do you just mean the Mach-E is expensive, or is there a specific sense that you'd be paying for "more car" stuff you don't need? I don't think of myself as somebody who needs a lot of car. But the Mach-E looks like a kind of sweet spot of "good range, well-built car, doesn't have the computer-glitchiness of a Tesla" for me -- I dunno maybe I should be looking harder at e-Niro

its a performance car

What does that mean, it drives fast? I thought the whole point was that it was called a Mustang but it was actually a family hatchback.

speed, handling, general appealing to car guy features, my impression is that its basically a tesla ripoff

yeah i would be paying for like acceleration and range that i don't need as a guy who mostly drives around town dropping my baby off places and buying groceries. honestly i would have just grabbed a bolt if there were any to grab.

forgot about this craziness where they only give you one key when you buy it because they think youre going to use your phone as a key but what happens when your phone runs out of battery?? this is insane to me, wonder if theyre still doing that the review is like a year old

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4n5iPqxpaw

honestly hate all this dumb innovation happening around evs like no door handle instead theres a button you press then theres a weird door handle to pull on, door handles work good thats why cars have them what does this stupid two step process have to do with the car being electric

no driver instrument panel in a tesla, a fucking square steering wheel, all of this shit sucks, also the need to make the car look electric who cares just make a nice car

What I want is safety, reliability, and "I don't have to think about this car very much" (e.g. I don't want huge hassles around charging, I don't want it to be a huge hassle to get it serviced, etc.)

the retractable door handle was an elon-aping-steve jobs fit of pique iirc xp

yeah i was just reading about a tesla app issue the other day where everyone was getting 500 errors and couldn't unlock their cars as a result. feel like i've also read a lot of ev reviews from car guys who ding models that don't feel futuristic enough or something which is what leads to all these dumb ideas. one nice thing about the niro was just about everything was recognizable and i had control sticks and physical climate buttons and stuff....like i don't want to have to *think* about how to turn up the heat in the car.

Okay I am just a hybrid-liking normie but really how often do you make your purchase decisions based on the edge case, as opposed to normal everyday usage?

Like, do you say "Normally I toast one or two slices of bread. Maybe four. But I need a toaster that can toast 12 slices at a time, because sometimes I have company"?

No. You do not.

Ditto towing capacity or hauling capacity. How often are you running to the grocery store for some milk vs., say, moving a couch? How often are you going to the post office vs., say, towing a boat?

Buy a vehicle for the stuff you do most often. Rent one for the longest trips you do, or heaviest loads you haul. Unless your life mainly consists of trips from e.g. Boulder to Birmingham or Glasgow to Zurich while towing your pet antelope.

people don't want to rent a car