hall of fame, next vote...

Grim list:

Alex Fernandez (958.1)
Jake Arrieta (956.5)
Charlie Morton (950.2)
Scott Kazmir (948.8)
Sid Fernandez (942.5)
Lance Lynn (942.4)
Jim Bibby (940.6)
Jose Rijo (939.3)
Yovani Gallardo (938.8)
Pete Harnisch (938.8)

I would not say grim, there are some good pitchers there.

Some are like Lincecum in that they were really good some near the best for a couple seasons and then the injuries happened.

Rijo
Big Sid
Arrieta (really one killer year)
Kazmir

Then some are guys that are more just solid, some up and down periods.

Lynn
Morton
Fernandez
Harnisch

Then there are a couple late bloomers like Jim Bibby who I think was a reliever for a long while that suddenly had some success as a starter for the Pirates.

grim list in terms of HOF chances, i guess.

clemenza your friend has no idea, lincecum has 0% chance. but he's a 100% SFG hall of famer, if they have one

He's just a guy I bowl with--I've known him for three months...I enjoy talking baseball with him, he's got something to say on almost any name that pops up, but no, I won't be consulting him if I'm ever in a HOF pool or something like that.

I was reading a roundup by Jay Jaffe the other day and a) Vizquel's personal issues were even nastier than I knew, and b) Jaffe seems to think Ortiz is on the fence; I'd bet money he goes in right away.

ortiz seems like a good 3rd-4th year candidate, but yeah, i think he'll make it

In terms of the "fame" part, the dude helped break the curse of the Bambino. That's about as legendary as you can get.

I think people hitting playoff homers in droves over the past couple decades kinda makes the numbers maybe not quite as impressive, but criminy at that point I don't think I had ever seen one batter pretty much pick up his team and carry them like Ortiz did in '04.

Ortiz should be a no brainer first ballot selection but the 2003 steroid test still hangs over him like a cloud, so the voters might make him wait a few of years just because, like they did with Piazza and Bagwell.

I mean the 2003 leak is only hard on the voters bc it requires them to be consistent in the application of their morality; p sure everyone wants to see ortiz in because it would be fun (he shd be in even if just for big hall reasons)

i revise my estimate to 1st or 2nd year. I see that Vlad (SENIOR) got 70% in the first year, made it in on the second. Ortiz has very comparable stats to Vlad, + the curse + "Big Papi" stuff. i wouldn't say no-brainer first ballot (just because he was a DH), but it's possible

Just a gut feeling--he'll get a pass on the PED issue (enough of one, anyway), and Edgar paved the way for first-ballot.

yeah he’s in first ballot I think. certainly within 2-3 years

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!39939&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!AK9u16pmWGGlQsI

First ballot in--defiantly pro-PED/MAGA.

The rest of my life is going to be annoying

welcome to middle age

Not great so far!

these early voters are some real sickos

To vote for Clemens but not Bonds... I don't get it

This one's something else:

https://www.delcotimes.com/2021/11/28/mccaffery-jimmy-rollins-ryan-howard-passed-hall-of-fame-eye-test/

true sicko

this is one of the most hilarious pieces of baseball writing i've ever read

So writers it must be, for they are relied upon for their eyes, their guts, their contacts, their experiences, their objectivity. And ultimately, they get it right, even if it sometimes takes a while. Even the system itself has enough firewalls to ensure Derek Jeter makes it to Cooperstown, even if some rogue voter chooses not to include him on a ballot.

It is under that system, then, that Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are each one checked-ballot closer to Cooperstown than they were on Thanksgiving Eve. Though neither is projected to be named on the 75 percent of completed ballots necessary for induction, Cooperstown would be emptier without their presence.

They were cut-above superstars for a NL East dynasty, ultimate professionals, big-game performers, steroid-free competitors who not only generated statistics as alluring as many already in the Hall of Fame, but never brazenly broke a rule. In the case of Howard, he belonged in the Hall of Fame alone for running out a ground ball to end a playoff series with one of his Achilles tendons dragging six feet behind.

Those first two votes, then, were simple: Rollins? Check. Howard? Check.

listen, everyone. i'm the expert here. and since i am the expert, you can rely on me for my guts, as well as my objectivity. i've got it all. and that's why ryan howard is a hall of famer. next

My memory's awful--who's the guy who continued to pitch in a playoff game this year after hurting himself badly? He has to go in too under the Ryan Howard rule.

Jimmy Rollins would be a poor choice, though not a completely indefensible one viewed in a vacuum (i.e., ignoring all the better players who aren't in there).

i remember thinking of jimmy rollins as a great shortstop, not quite a hall of fame one. but the ryan howard pick is just hilarious. that was one of the worst contracts in baseball, until he retired. from 2010-2016, he was worth a total of 0.8 fWAR, with negative numbers in 4 of those 7 seasons. and even his early glory days were marred by his piss poor defense. it's a vote that makes no sense unless you declare your gut to be correct and then go with your rong gut

to be fair, ryan howard does have 200+ more homers than buster posey ;)

"NL East dynasty"

Die nasty.

that article makes me pine for a point-by-point Fire Joe Morgan takedown. Get back to your roots, Michael Schur!

i know i already quoted this above, but this is outstanding

So writers it must be, for they are relied upon for their eyes, their guts, their contacts, their experiences, their objectivity. And ultimately, they get it right, even if it sometimes takes a while. Even the system itself has enough firewalls to ensure Derek Jeter makes it to Cooperstown, even if some rogue voter chooses not to include him on a ballot.

ah yes, the burden of the writer! the burden of having to come up with the perfect example to illustrate a writer's point. ultimately, writers get it right. like, say, derek jeter, first ballot hall of famer, the exact opposite of what the writer was talking about in the previous sentences

i feel dumber for having read that piece.

i have to respect it. half of being a modern sports columnist is homerism and the other half is trolling, and i can’t imagine the last time the delaware county times got this many hits on a story

too many multiple-sentence paragraphs tho

jon heyman votes: bonds, andruw, jeff kent, rolen, schilling

clown ballot, bro

Same nonsensical disconnect as that other guy, but in reverse: Bonds but no Clemens.

The Veterans Committee voted today: Minnie Miñoso, Buck O'Neill, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, and Bud Fowler are all going in.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-hall-of-fame-committee-election-results

Hodges seems pretty iffy to me: his WS win as a manager was his one successful season out of nine, and his 10 closest player comps via Similarity Score do not include another HOF'er. He was one of Roger Khan's boys of summer, though, and I guess that finally got him in. Oliva was great for eight years; Kaat was the opposite, good for 40, or however many he played.

Dick Allen fell a vote short.

Two years now. I called Dick missing again because he had the best case out of all of them for the Hall (maybe O’Neil) - so of course the lunatics in the vets committee would fuck it up.

O’Neill had by far the best case imo, but yeah Dick Allen was robbed

O’Neill had by far the best case imo, but yeah Dick Allen was robbed

If you compare Allen to Hodges, it's not really close. Both played first base (Allen played 3rd early on):

Hodges: .273/.359/.487, 120 OPS+, 43.9 bWAR
Allen: .292/.378/.534, 156 OPS+, 58.7 bWAR

Give Hodges credit for managing the '69 Mets. People used to knock Allen as a clubhouse problem, but that's really gotten a second look over the years--there seem to be very few holdouts on that point now (James unfortunately one of them).

Still not close.

Oliva and Kaat are borderline too, but they are alive, so that's nice.

Minoso absolutely deserving and I’m relieved he finally made it.

Lost in all of the hubbub over who was/wasn't elected is this:

The Rule of 2,000 has been broken, as Tony Oliva had "only" 1,917 hits, making him the first candidate whose career took place during the post-1960 expansion era with <2000 to be elected by either BBWAA or committee.

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) December 6, 2021

That benchmark will be obliterated when Posey comes up for induction.

The Hall of Guys That Were Decent Enough I Guess.

secretly, jay jaffe is like "hahaha, now i can amend all my annual pieces on all of the hall of fame candidates to discuss the role of the recently obliterated Rule of 2000, ahahaha"

Hodges was inevitable, I guess. He was like Anthony Rizzo, a key offensive player on a very famous team that won an all-time memorable championship. If you're a Big Hall person then he's a perfectly reasonable pick, even if there are others more deserving (like Dick Allen, whose time will come).

I think the real lesson of the Oliva and Minoso elections is that voters are finally giving more weight to peak value than career value, and it's about time. From the 70's until about ten years ago basically any player without 300 wins or 3000 hits could be in for a long wait. I'd rather have a Hall of Short Term Superstars than a Hall of Very Good for a Long Time. The HOF can be both (and in fact is) but if I had to choose, that's what I'd prefer.

I lean that way too (with something like Jay Jaffe's 7-year window for peak as a floor; I wouldn't want to induct Josh Hamilton).

I don't know how much I'd read into Veteran Committee inductees, though. They inducted Baines two years ago--about as un-peak a selection as you can get--and this year Kaat, also much more a career value pick. I think the VC picks have more to do with who's on the panel, and lifelong affiliations. Carew and Schmidt, both teammates of Kaat, were two of the 16 voters this year; there may be other connections I'm not aware of.

The writers may be moving in a peak direction, but I think they still lean towards career. The fate of Andruw Jones might be instructive one way or the other.

Didn't know Buck O'Neil and Joe Carter had some history:

https://www.mlb.com/news/joe-carter-lee-smith-discuss-buck-o-neil-hall-of-fame-election

It's true that the Veterans Committee makes iffy career value picks as well, but that doesn't affect the notion that (as Jaffe noted, and I think he's correct) the door is slowly opening for more peak value candidates.