Rob Manfred and the Destruction of Baseball (LOCKOUT 2022)

and former MLB employee

I knew bud selig was an ilxor

Do owners still claim to be losing money? I thought that myth died 20 years ago, along with the burning need to contract two teams.

As much as I'd like to see the players take a hardline stance in this round, I don't have much faith in Tony Clark to get it done.

ah, an aLgOrItHm

MLB’s proposal to players would see salary arbitration replaced with an algorithm that would determine salaries for pre-free agency players per source

Sounds like that idea will be met with resistance from MLBPA

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 11, 2021

so basically the same way it is now except the players can't dispute it

The only wanted to go with fangraphs, because BBref overvalues fist pumps.

If salaries are going to be determined by a single metric, not WAR; bring back Game-Winning RBI.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32600372/agent-scott-boras-tanking-mlb-competitive-cancer-led-atlanta-braves-world-series-title

I haven't read this yet, but first thoughts are: 1) I used to kind of hate Boras, 2) haven't fire sales been going on for years, even decades (is it worse now?), and 3) there must be some deep-seated self-interest here that prompted him to speak out.

I think the difference is that the old fire-sales would bring back talent, prospects. The new fire sales are just teams dumping the salaries at the deadline and getting nothing back.

"It created an incentive for the race to the bottom, because now we have half the major league teams at some time during the season being noncompetitive..."

But 30 years ago, before the wild card, three-quarters of the teams were (realistically) non-competitive. Half the teams now are competitive, and they know that just getting into the playoffs gives them a decent shot to win everything. This is all good.

(xpost) Thanks. I guess teams were scared-straight about giving up prospects because of some long-term embarrassment like the Jeff Bagwell trade. I don't think they should be; it's a roll of the dice, and most prospects bounce around, get hurt, etc. Toronto fans and media were in a panic five years ago over the David Price trade (Matthew Boyd, Jairo Labourt, and Daniel Norris), and thus far, at least, none have panned out. It was a rental, but it worked out.

Anyway, he may be right that there's some major flaw in the way business is being conducted right now. But Atlanta won the same way that teams have been winning the World Series for decades: they got hot at the right time. It's not like their personnel was overwhelming. And I'm just suspicious of Boras as the messenger.

I thought his point was that teams used to spend more money on free agents during the off-season. Now the incentive to load up on high priced talent isn't there because you can muddle along at .500 and retool your team for table scraps at the deadline.

The fact that more teams are competitive compared with 30 years ago doesn't help the problem, according to him, because Boras' idea of competitiveness is teams overspending to win 95-100 games and there's less incentive to do that.

I don't agree with everything he says but there's a good point buried somewhere in there.

That makes sense, and that's what I meant about not trusting the messenger--he's pretending to care about the game, but he's speaking purely out of self-interest (conceding there may be points of overlap).

he's a blowhard and most of the things he says about individual players are ridiculous, but i think he's pretty savvy about the state of the game in general

and sure, he's self-interested, but no more so than anyone in management/ownership

I’m not sure he has any point here. Teams can win the WS by being middle of the road spenders with a base of young talent and small deadlines moves? We just as easily could have been looking at the Dodgers in the WS. Or yankees or Sox.
I’d agree something should be done about teams just pocketing revenue and not caring about competing (Marlins). But I don’t think an unlikely team like the braves being World Series champ is indicative of any kind of problem.

sawchik on the issue of young players and money. i have no idea how you'd even solve this fairly in a vacuum let alone while using the current CBA as a starting point

The players' dilemma in a couple of charts. The first shows earnings and performance by age in 2021. Age 26 players produced the most combined WAR of any age group & most plate appearances and innings of any age group. They combined for 14.7% of WAR but 3.8% of pay pic.twitter.com/YJJXeVZMbo

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) November 13, 2021

Combined, the 22-28 age range accounted for 56% of WAR but 25.8% of pay last season. (For reference, in 2003, 22- to 28-year olds accounted for 48.1% of WAR, further illustrating how younger players today are accounting for more production.) pic.twitter.com/dWxgtVjqZ8

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) November 13, 2021

That's probably been the trend since the beginning of the free agent era. There was an unwritten acceptance that it was OK to underpay young players (benefitting the teams) because they'd be overpaid down the line if they were productive. Players didn't rock the boat because they knew they'd see big money later in their careers (benefitting them more than the teams). It's a strange equilibrium but it helped maintain labour peace for the most part after the collusion settlements in the 80's.

The problem now is that front offices have stopped playing along, analytics departments can't (and won't) buy in to such a huge market inefficiency. I think the players are stuck, management strategies are constantly evolving, and there won't be an easy solution to any of this.

MLB lockout likely to arrive late next week. One person's guess at a 2022 timetable: Spring training is delayed until deep into March. Regular season gets going third week of April. Season shortened to 145 games. This new CBA is going to be prolonged war.

— Lynn G. Henning (@Lynn_Henning) November 23, 2021

fwiw here is marvin miller's book in epub + mobi format

(believe it was initially scanned but also i spent a good bit of time cleaning it up)

We are locked out.

They've already taken down pretty much every story about an active player.https://t.co/ank1Uxa4Ry

— Jack Baer (@JFordBaer) December 2, 2021

So they could have just kept going with the previous framework until a new agreement was in place? I’m not quite sure why they had to LOCK OUT exactly.

I wonder if the age of social media will push more people take the side of players than in the past.

Mostly: who buys a ticket for the owners?

I think mlb.com needs to keep their off-season formula intact, just reimagine all those great story ideas in terms of management: "One Surefire Christmas Gift Idea for Every Assistant GM."

I was 10000% in support of the players in '94 (over the weekend, I'll try to dig something up I wrote at the time and post it here), and good Ball Four worshipper that I am, I'm still on their side. But I won't care a tenth as much this time.

(A big part of why I cared so much in '94--think the Jays were out of it by mid-season, even though they were coming of their two WS wins--were Williams/Griffey chasing Maris and Gwynn chasing .400.)

The thing that would even out the money in baseball and help grow the entire enterprise would be to evenly distribute the TV money across the entire league like the NFL so that players salaries are truly similar on all clubs but the major market clubs are never going to give that up.

Beyond that, I think the actual game play anymore in the MLB is just going to shit. They play so many games during the regular season, I swear the players look f'n bored half the time and you see just crappy play all around that never would have flown before.

If the players are f'n bored why the heck do they think the fans should care. And as a fan in Cincy, I don't anymore. I don't see why ANY mid market team should give two shits about their team anymore.

#NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/monyD2CDeL

— Joe Musgrove (@itsFatherJoe44) December 2, 2021

https://paydayreport.com/11337-2/

Beyond that, I think the actual game play anymore in the MLB is just going to shit. They play so many games during the regular season, I swear the players look f'n bored half the time and you see just crappy play all around that never would have flown before

According to manfred they locked out the players to avoid a strike. A strike is much worse than a lockout because

“you can’t quit! i locked you out first! NYEAHHHH!!”

also it’s a *defensive* lockout

stand your ground

a man’s cartel is his castle

Lead story on mlb.com today: "Commissioner reiterates desire to make deal." On deck for tomorrow: "Commissioner still in favor of reaching a deal."

defector is on the case

idk if labor law literally prevents them from even mentioning current players' names? iirc there have previously been minor fights about whether basic stats are proprietary, e.g., is it legal to say a dude hit X homers without paying MLB for the info (lol!)

in any case it's way too on-the-nose pointing out how baseball is nothing without the players

From Radio On #6, 27 years ago; as I wrote above, I cared a lot more then than I do now.

https://phildellio.tripod.com/ravitch.jpg

It may seem like I'm contradicting myself when I ridicule "had-enough" fans there. I don't think so: saying I don't care that much today isn't saying I've had enough, which is the kind of thing you say when you do care a lot. When they settle--tomorrow, in February, three years from now--I'll resume taking the same level of interest in the game that I took before the lockout, which amounts to following stats, following my favorite players, monitoring the Jays and ready to jump on their bandwagon at any given moment, and even, now and again, actually watching a game.

I'm sure every generation of baseball fans have this realization at one point or another, but in reality the game is played so very differently than it was in the 80s or even 90s for better or worse.

One example that I just find funny is that LaRosa's pizza for years would give out gift certificates for a free small 1 topping pizza if the Reds pitchers struck out 10 players for fans at the park. They changed it to a free slice for 11 strike outs now, as it literally happens every game now.

Some of the ball never being put into play and sitting back for a walk slows the rate of play down a ton, but the shit that infuriates me is that it 'seems' that even when they put the ball into play modern scouting pretty much has everyone down cold and yet I seem to see more crap fielding and baserunning.

While the better athleticism is probably part of the reason the strikeouts are much higher, I don't know that it has carried to better defense as you got the "Ugglafication" of players that can hit the long ball but they are playing out of position and are a brick in the field and usually swing and miss like Rob Deer.

Even if they can hit the long ball, they don't have the batting skills to work around their scouting though but hey they had that one year that got them that huge deal so I hope Eugenio Suarez really gives a good gift to his agent. That said, I like Geno at least he is not some social media A-hole, which is another reason to really hate this game.

And on top of that you got owners you now really know how big a A-holes they are that ruin entire clubs. Those shithead Trumpers that own the Cubs lead me to hope they never win a f'ing game ever again. But hey, that's nothing new I just know more about them now I suppose some owners are just smart to keep that crap on the down low.

So its probably more that I just despise the world more and more with baseball is just a microcosm of that hate. I hope this labor issue costs them the whole season, burn the fucker down.

i don’t disagree

in terms of the CBA it feels like that “one good year” problem is one facet of a nearly insoluble issue. stats show players peak around 25-27, yet that’s exactly the moment they can command big long term deals - and teams know their value will decline. maybe there’s a creative wayto deal with this but i haven’t read it

The lead story for two days running on mlb.com has been Old Hoss Radbourn. This cracks me up--I don't think they could have anyone else in that spot who more desperately cries out "We officially have nothing to write about."

https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/private/t_16x9/t_w2208/mlb/cffyjxiplqgfqzmwdlk3.jpg

Mind you, the exclamation points work wonders.

i suppose the way to deal the the peak year issue is to actually play younger players what they’re worth earlier in their careers wait why are you laughing

MLB Network has cut ties with insider Ken Rosenthal that is believed to be the end result of acrimony that peaked in the summer of 2020 after Rosenthal criticized commissioner Rob Manfred, The Post has learned.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/03/ken-rosenthal-out-at-mlb-network-over-rob-manfred-criticism/

Just came to post that--Trump evidently now in charge of MLB.

that is fucking pathetic

MLB is full of insecure and vindictive weasels ime

Wonder what other moves that chump would make if he had even more power.

Scherzer: Honestly, I believe that because what we’re fighting for is integrity. It’s about how the game is being played and how the rules of the game are affecting the competition of play. It’s obvious that we see teams tanking. I’m not here to sit here and say an owner is an evil person for tanking, because the strategy can work. But we feel the tanking has increased because of the rigid slot values of the draft picks. The amateur draft and the international market have incredible surplus value. That’s why the top picks are so coveted. The only way the CBA allows teams to get those players is by losing. That has become the winning strategy, yet that shouldn’t be a winning strategy in professional sports. That doesn’t sit well with players, and it affects a lot of different markets and guys’ ability to live out their dreams to play baseball. Additionally, when you have that tanking component in there, it also leads to service-time manipulation. As these teams gear up for their window, watching teams manipulate prospects’ clocks is wrong. It’s changing free agency from what it was supposed to be. Free agency’s supposed to be six years, and they’re manipulating it into seven years and that’s not OK in our book. And that’s a work stoppage issue for us. And so, like I said, all the players understand that and we’re willing to fight for that.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-01-03/max-scherzer-mlb-lockout-new-cba-dodgers-mets

he also alludes to "the grand bargain" falling apart i.e. underpaying young players and overpaying veterans.. now that owners are less willing to overpay veterans something needs to change on the front end

I agree with him on manipulating the clock--we saw that happen in Toronto with Vlad (and really, it was hard to argue with management, even though it was maddening to see him stuck down in Buffalo).

Is tanking that prevalent, though? I guess I just don't pay close enough attention to see it. To me, it feels like so many middle-level teams are trying to make moves at the deadline to grab a wild-card spot, at which point anything can happen.

Is tanking that prevalent, though?

yes

Automatic strike zone in 2023 finally

starting to have second thoughts about that. bitching about balls and strikes a pretty integral part of the experience. and do these robot umps really adjust for player height? no doubt it’s all been thought of, just maybe a little nostalgic for a simpler time..

I hear that. But sometimes the calls are just really out of whack…Ultimately it will benefit the game I hope, make things more fair for both the hitters -and- the pitchers

now that i'm thinking about it iirc the homeplate umpire can overrule the robocall, so that should provide ample opportunity for the traditional disgruntlement

Ohhhh. Well then 😊

A little nostalgic too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssx1hNSs4TI

pretty impressive to be ejected 91 times

Earl Weaver aside, I want them to get calls right. I think about the checked-swing call that ended the Giants' season last year (but that would be outside the scope of a robot ump, no? just balls and strikes?).

i'm not necessarily against robo balls & strikes, but several things worry me:

as of four or five years ago, the automatic zone was not more accurate than human umps. i'm fairly confident that, like the new ball-tracking system, it is better now. but it is also my understanding that mlb's agreement with the umpires union allowed it to unilaterally impose automatic balls/strikes if implemented by a certain date. so i hope the system is actually ready and not just being rushed in while still possible.

with framing skills moot, i'm not sure how catcher valuations will change, but i'm guessing it won't be to their advantage.

be careful what you wish for: there are pitches that are technically strikes -- e.g. something completely unhittable that nicks the zone by a millimeter -- that we've spent 150 years collectively calling balls. there are going to be some *weird* looking pitches called the opposite of what we're used to, and it's going to take time for everyone to adjust to it. fortunately baseball fans are famously accommodating of change.

the system will be easy to abuse. mlb has already shown that it's willing to change the composition of the ball mid-season; there's really nothing to stop them from tweaking the strike zone algorithm to goose preferred outcomes at any moment. you can *tell* umps to call the high strike, but they may or may not do it and they'll be blamed by the fans either way. if the computer says that pitch is a strike (or ball), well, there's no one to argue with, is there?

all that said, iirc there were few complaints when it was tested in the atlantic league a few years ago, so maybe it'll be fine

also it seems like placing cameras to study check-swings would be fairly simple, but first everyone would have to agree on what a swing actually *is*

There is a rule in golf about what constitutes a swing, is there not a parallel here?

A swing is an attempt at a pitch, that is not a bunt. That includes what is referred to as a “checked swing” or “half swing.” It is up to the judgment of the umpire(s) if the batter attempted at a pitched ball. Contrary to popular belief, a batter does not have to “break his wrist” in order to attempt at a pitch. While noting whether the swing carried the barrel of the bat past the body can aid an umpire on this call, the final decision is based on whether the batter actually attempted at the pitch.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Hadn't heard of this before, but sounds a bit excessive and probably nor worth the technical difficulties.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/league-makes-proposals-to-mlbpa-about-sign-stealing-on-field-information.html

"One proposal involves the PitchCom system currently being tested during Spring Training games, as the league is now offering that players can continue to use the system on a voluntary basis during the regular season. PitchCom is an electronic method for a catcher to communicate signs to the pitcher — the catcher enters the desired pitch (or pickoff throw, pitchout, etc.) on a specialized wristband, while the pitcher is wearing an audio device in his hat that tells him the pitch call via an automated voice. The catcher and as many as three other fielders can also be wearing the audio device, to ensure accuracy and to make the information known around the diamond."

nonononono fuuuuuuck that

Seriously. Fuck that to hell. Why do people who hate baseball run baseball?!

Easier problem to 'fix' than trying to get people under age 40 to give a shit about baseball.

Is this really such a big deal? QB's have speakers in their helmets, does this ruin football? I'm old school when it comes to baseball traditions, but 50 on-field meetings discussions per game to discuss the signs kind of ruins baseball too.

i hate it in football too. but football has been a mechanized, militarized game for decades. offensive coordinators up in a luxury box radioing down plays. i don’t want that in baseball.

i watched a spring training game where they were testing out that tech and it seemed fine. i'm pretty sure the calls still have to come from the catcher at this point.

look if it leads to a situation where the opposing team hacks into the broadcast to confuse the pitcher then i'm all for it

Hopefully it speeds things up if they do it. Tho I am sure they will find away to make it take fucking longer

Automated voice: For the next pitch, throw a……please stand by, looking for secure WiFi connection. Your pitch is important to us. All issues will be resolved in the order they were received.

bluetooth connected

bluetooth, disconnected

i’d like buster to explain how any of this has to do with the players union or its ‘engagement’

The Orioles' '22 projected payroll is another example that NOTHING has been done to curb tanking:https://t.co/td0lJ4tZmR The only way this issue can be dealt with, in the next CBA, is if MLB and the union can repair together. Engagement required. Because this is a joke.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) April 4, 2022

should we keep using this thread for general 2022 MLB discussion or start a new one?

new one might be fun

i don't have any clever names in mind so unless we're ok with "general 2022 MLB regular season thread" someone else can start it

Yes new one would be good. General 2022 MLB Season Chatter including additional designated hitters and ghost runners.

Also bonus wild cards

Ghost Run the WHIP

i don't really care what it's called as long as 2022 MLB is in the title somewhere for search purposes

^ new thread name. Right there.

ok I made the new thread!

Worth it for the headline:

https://www.theonion.com/rob-manfred-open-to-any-ideas-to-make-mlb-all-star-game-1849179763

Also: "there were no bad ideas...(including) letting teams start with a runner on third base during the fifth inning for no reason."

is it a widespread thing to call the extra-innings runner on second the 'manfred man' y/n

Before BWittJr, before Adalberto Mondesi (yet after BJackson), there was...

"The Mighty" Mark Quinn "The Eskimo"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EvZstgxmJs

re: mookie

yes

yeah i think it's too cute for how stupid the zombie runner is

I call it the manfred man mainly cos you can do it to the tune of macho man

i don't know about widespread, but i wouldn't think of using anything other than Manfred Mann. too perfect

ghost runner is a terrible thing to use, because anyone who ever played during recess knows the rules of a ghost runner don't apply here

lol otm

that's one of ben lindberg's hobbyhorses - the ghost runner already exists and this isn't it.

Also the runners aren’t deceased.

zombie runner is my preferred

yeah, zombie runner is what makes the most sense if you need a supernatural term

the runner that time forgot

Frankenstein’s baserunner

the Rob Zombie runner