rolling retirees: 2018 and beyond

i fuckin love gene tenace

for some reason i do too, never having seen him play. i had baseball card and i liked the cut of his jib, i liked his stats, and i liked the name gene tenace

mauer's a hall of famer imo. thing about comparing the two directly, though, is that mauer played so much of his career at 1B, where his bat was less valuable than as a catcher.

Posey:

C: 1080 games
1B: 219
DH: 31

Mauer:

C: 897
1B: 593
DH: 304

in other words, if you two players who are both similar career-level hitters (like posey and mauer, to a degree), i'll take the one that plays catcher most often, because a good catcher+hitter is much more valuable than the first base equivalent

Molina played so much longer than either of those guys, and all at catcher, and his defensive stats are off the charts good. But his offense is nothing special. It's cool that he seemed to get better as he got older.

i personally dislike yadi but i can't ignore the accumulation. being a big league catcher is incredibly hard and he's done it awfully well for fucking ever

there is absolutely a place in my hall for a league-average hitter who spent most of two decades absolutely terrifying baserunners and piling up dWAR

WAR aside, I think Posey has it over Mauer for various (obvious) reasons.

I saw Gene Tenace play lots. We were really stupid then, so we just thought he was a catcher with a low batting average.

"The Face of Baseball," Posey vs. David Wright...taking a wild guess that would look different today.

very sad about this news, i think Posey just wants to be with his family. the Giants were going to pick up his 22MM offer or even work out a longer deal.

the Bart era begins

Looking at Posada who had way more homers but was trash on D... looking at Munson who was Posey-esque but died young. Lots of interesting comparisons out there among the non-enshrined guys.

"the Bart era"

words that only appear once, ever

haha sorry

i sure do hope Posey makes Cooperstown, his numbers might be short but that should change a bit with time or hoping

he will 100% make it, has a better case than current hall of famer yadier molina iirc

I hadn't thought about it, but in a Posnanski column on Posey today, he mentions that comparisons to Munson have been frequent the past few days.

Posey (1371 games): .302/.372/.460, 158 HR, 129 OPS+, 44.9 bWAR, ROY, MVP, 3 World Series titles
Munson (1423 games): .292/.346/.410, 113 HR, 116 OPS+, 46.1 bWAR, ROY, MVP, 2 World Series titles

Definite offensive edge to Posey--was Munson's defense that great that he comes out ahead on bWAR? Anyway, I think Munson should be in the HOF, so that's not meant to bring Posey's case into question.

saw a thing on reddit claiming that posey had the third-best final-season fWAR of all-time -- behind two black sox -- but i'm guessing that it was not accurate because i can no longer find it

i suspect his 4.9 is up there, although i have no idea how to search for that

Position players, I assume--not sure what Koufax's fWAR was, but his bWAR was 10.3 in 1966.

(fWAR = 9.1)

no doubt

David Ortiz comes to mind too: 5.2 bWAR, 4.5 fWAR.

not really much of a position player, though (ba-dum-dum)

He had a very definite position.

https://fansided.com/files/2013/10/7758640-590x401.jpg

yeah iirc the (now discredited) list had ortiz like fifth and clemente around 10

I think the main thing Posey offers is balance. He hit for high average, got on base at a high clip, had more pop than other high OBP guys, was a plus defender, a plus-plus framer. It doesn't look that sexy on the page.

Munson is an interesting comparison I think because he never even came close to getting voted in, yet Posey's stats aren't that much better than his. Not because Munson is obviously his peer or obviously better than him. But if you're arguing that Posey is a sure thing, it's interesting that Munson wasn't.

i think back when Munson was eligible voters cared a lot more about accumulated stats than now. he plays through his decline years and reaches like, 2,500 hits and 200 home runs – he's probably getting in.

They're also both comparable to Kirby Puckett--not positionally, obviously, but in other ways: abbreviated career, very popular (before the world knew about the awful things Puckett was doing...I remember Munson being kind of a lovable grump), key position on more than one World Series winner, team leader. Puckett also almost won a ROY (3rd) and almost won an MVP (2nd). Puckett's career bWAR was a little better than the other two (51.2), but his HOF case was also the subject of some debate. Puckett got in first try, Munson drew less than 10%. Not sure why.

Bill James answered an e-mail about Posey today: "I thought Mauer was an obvious Hall of Famer. I don't know that I ever really studied it; I just thought it was obvious. Molina, in my mind, crossed the Hall of Fame threshold this season, 2021; I thought it was debatable whether he was a Hall of Famer or not until this season, but I thought that this season settled the issue.

Posey I think is in the gray area, and I guess I will need to think about it for a year or so before I reach any clear opinion about it, or maybe I never will. He's not an obvious Hall of Famer. And Munson I don't think is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate, and I don't believe he has any business being in the Hall of Fame discussion."

Typically perverse.

(xpost) Very true. It's probably as simple as that.

There was also, I think, if you look at Munson's last two seasons, the perception that decline was underway.

In 2019, the Modern Era committee didn't come close to voting Munson in, although he *was* on the (bottom of the) list of ten guys they considered. But I think that shows it's not just about the preferences of 1980s voters.

I'm back to not getting it, then. Sabremetrically, he does well (5.2 bWAR/162 games), and at the time, he was admired and famous (ranked higher among catchers than Fisk and Simmons, I think--after Bench--though maybe I'm not remembering that right).

For what it's worth: Munson started the AS game in '74/75/76, Fisk started in '73/77/78. So I guess they were perceived--at least among the fans who voted--as equals.

It's wild to look at the damage Fisk did as an old guy. And he was still playing 100 games at catcher at age 43.

James got some follow-up on his Munson dismissal today. I know I've posted about this a few times already...The e-mail is polite and carefully laid out, even pointing out that James himself once ranked Munson as the 7th greatest catcher ever in peak value. James's response kind of amazes me.

Of Munson, you say: "I don' t think he is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate, and I don't believe he has any business being in the Hall of Fame discussion." I'm a bit baffled by this (and no, I'm not, and have never been, a Yankee fan). Looking objectively, he's 15th among C's in WAR, 12th in Jay Jaffe's JAWS system (which is focused on HOF worthiness). 200+ win shares in a career tragically cut short. A ROY, an MVP, 7 time All Star, got MVP votes in 7 seasons. Hit .357 in 30 playoff games. Was the Captain of a legendary team. In your historical Abstract you have him 7th in peak value as of that time.

Given the above, maybe not a HOF'er but not even "in the discussion" seems very harsh. Can you elaborate? If not, I'm just curious, do you make any allowances for the career cut short by a plane crash or do you think that's not relevant?
Asked by: Steve

Answered: 11/6/2021
No disrespect, but I don't think I am obligated to use the same value systems that other people use.

James' career value is dropping like a rock.

Stupid reader, why would anyone think win shares are a value system Bill James would use? I mean, sure, James invented them and framed the Abstract entirely around them...

No QO to Kershaw. Is he hanging em up?$

Yet more Posey-Munson stuff from David Schoenfield (who also compares Posey to Puckett):

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/32545582/where-buster-posey-stands-all-great-catchers

How bad is Kershaw's health? (I guess not making a qualifying offer maybe answers that.) Have to believe someone will take a chance on him. If that is it, the Koufax parallels never end...

the reddit brain trust seemed to think there's decent odds of him having a multi-year deal soon – but i dunno why you wouldn't still offer up a QO.

Because the org knows he doesnt want to leave

I think Dave Fleming dug up an even better point of comparison for Posey than Munson: Mickey Cochrane.

https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_ballad_of_buster_posey/

Really enjoyed that, thanks for sharing

*not* qualifying kershaw did him a favor, i suspect (other than that it's vaguely insulting)

-if healthy, he *might* be worth $18.4M for one year on the free agent market, but it's questionable, as is his arm
-could be wrong, but i doubt he needs the money
-so i assume he wants years
-had he been qualified, other teams would have had to give up a top draft pick to sign an aging unhealthy pitcher
-now he can sign a lengthier, lower-per-year deal with anyone, with no penalties
-if he really wants to stay with the dodgers, he -- unlike, say, greinke -- will totally take a lesser offer as long as it has the years

otoh god only knows what free agent compensation will be like after rob manfred destroys baseball

Joakim Soria

for some reason i have always thought Soria was 35 and on the brink of retirement. since like 2010. i have no idea why. but he's 37 now, and now retired.

dude had a hell of a career for a reliever.

https://theathletic.com/news/royals-reliever-wade-davis-retires-leaves-as-world-series-champ-and-3-time-all-star/C50bQGC2cmTc/

Dominant in 2014-15: 139.1 IP, 0.97 ERA, 71 hits, 7.3 bWAR.

i wonder what his career would have been like if he'd been used as a reliever from the get-go.

Mysterious Fish, the greatest Japanese baseball mascot of all-time, just announced his retirement. RIP to a legend. cc: @mondomascots https://t.co/zkMRgWcoW5 pic.twitter.com/l0bVn8jAFx

— Eric Casey (@EricCasey) December 5, 2021

andrew romine, who put up 0.6 bWAR over parts of 11 seasons

That’s a type of accomplishment I guess.

as mark twain wrote, you have to be kind of good to suck badly that bad for that long