outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Not my theory, I just like the phrase.

Does the NTSB study bat accidents?

Bat accident is for females, they call it a bar accident for males

As a layperson it's hard to know if there's any serious rebuttal?

I don't feel equipped to judge the competing claims but this article was good imo:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/15/lab-leak-theory-doesnt-hold-up-covid-china/

A report from the field. Nothing new, you could say, but that's the problem.

https://www.zanesvilletimesrecorder.com/story/news/local/2021/10/24/zanesville-genesis-covid-19-ccu/8538656002/

The patients get to talk to their families one last time before intubation, when their communication is cut off, and they enter some level of sedation to help them cope with the tubes in their throats. Often, that conversation is the last interaction they have with their families.

A sad truth that's been repeated now hundreds of thousands of times in the past 20 months. The main difference between the early months and now is that the hospitals have had a lot of time to regularize the process, because 'practice makes perfect' and they've had way too much practice.

well, it happened

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-021-00779-5

In summary, A.30 exhibits a cell line preference not observed for other viral variants and efficiently evades neutralization by antibodies elicited by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 vaccination. SARS-CoV-2 entry into cell lines depends on S protein activation by the cellular proteases cathepsin L or TMPRSS2 [8], and activation by the latter is thought to support viral spread in the lung. Therefore, it is noteworthy that enhanced A.30 entry was observed for cell lines with cathepsin L (Vero, 293 T, Huh-7, A549 cells)—but not TMPRSS2 (Calu-3, Caco-2)-dependent entry [8]. Thus, one could speculate that A.30 might use cathepsin L with increased efficiency and slight (but not statistically significant) resistance of A.30 against the cathepsin L inhibitor MDL 28170 supports this possibility (Supplemental information, Fig. S1c). Notably, robust entry into cell lines was combined with high resistance against antibodies induced upon ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 vaccination. Neutralization resistance exceeded that of the Beta (B.1.351) variant, which is markedly neutralization resistant in cell culture and, in comparison with the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant, is less well inhibited by the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine [9]. Nevertheless, heterologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19/BNT162b2 vaccination, which was previously shown to augment neutralizing antibody responses against VOCs compared to corresponding homologous vaccinations [7, 10], might offer robust protection against the A.30 variant. Collectively, our results suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 variant A.30 can evade control by vaccine-induced antibodies and might show an increased capacity to enter cells in a cathepsin L-dependent manner, which might particularly aid in the extrapulmonary spread. As a consequence, the potential spread of the A.30 variant warrants close monitoring and rapid installment of countermeasures.

you still get some protection from mRNA vaccines/BNT/Pfizer, though, just not as much

i'm hoping people who haven't gotten vaccinated but have had covid are also equally "protected", otherwise 2022 is going to be another fun year

ok but, evasion of antibodies is only one part of the equation. there are variants that are much better than Delta than evading antibody protection, but they never gained a foothold because they weren't as transmissible as Delta.

way too soon to be sounding the alarm here.

we were hearing air raid sirens when Mu came out, for instance

that's a good point

i dunno what i’m hearing about cathepsin L inhibitor MDL 28170 response is bananas

someone is going to have to translate that

look if you’re not going to engage with the different facets of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 vaccination then i don’t know what you’re posting on this forum for tbh

ChAdOx1 is my name on counterstrike

No, no, you misunderstand. "BNT162b2" is the name of my dog.

“I never knew what irony was until I was watching this play about how people weren’t taking a pandemic seriously while surrounded by people not taking a pandemic seriously.”

Powerful words from @Laughfrodisiac on her experience of watching THE NORMAL HEART at @NationalTheatre with a mostly unmasked audience. It really is the most extraordinary of ironies and indictments on theatregoers! A MUST-READ. https://t.co/q20usY0nv9 pic.twitter.com/x9uhkGPyTL

— Mark Shenton 💙 (@ShentonStage) October 26, 2021

Wait theaters in London don’t require masks???

Got my Moderna booster, by the way. Zero side effects (but I had no side effects from the original doses either, maybe a little tiredness but I'm not even sure.)

Almost 90% of adults have been vaccinated in the UK so it’s pretty loosey goosey here. The risk feels low.

1 in 55 people in the UK are infected, and numbers rose 18% last week, to the second-highest point of the pandemic. Vaccinated people can still spread the virus. Vaccine efficacy reduces at five months.

It’s possible that “feeling” is not the best measure of epidemiology. Even facebook was putting “misinformation” flags on posts by a year ago; after the last few days here, maybe stet should be implementing something similar.

flags

aiui iirc

Efficacy reducing at 5 months still not agreed upon by a large portion of experts fwiw. Hence why boosters are only recommended for 'some' ppl

At least, reducing significantly enough to warrant boosters.

UK cases decreasing this week if you go by day of report, not so if you go by specimen date (there it appears to plateau)

Good article which is more specific on waning

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/how-long-will-coronavirus-vaccine-last

sic i agree with you fwiw.

also a higher percent of the UK's population received astrazeneca, which is the least effective and why, at least in canada, it's being recommended that you get an mRNA booster if you did get AZ

Efficacy reducing at 5 months still not agreed upon by a large portion of experts fwiw. Hence why boosters are only recommended for 'some' ppl

if only any experts had ever recommended mask-wearing indoors at any point

far more people I know (in the uk) have tested positive in the last month than the whole rest of the pandemic put together. Obviously it's not an objective measure but I feel it's more probable that I personally am at higher risk (of testing positive) right now.
That said I'm not doing much different other than continuing to avoid crowded indoor places and do regular LFT testing. The main risk continues to be via school and preschool imo.

anecdata from London-- went out more in the last week than any time since the beforetimes. Thursday was leaving drinks at a pretty busy pub. One person started off in a mask but it was gone by her second drink. Was probably a group of 50 people, lots of hugging and close talking as the pub was loud. Friday was a gig at Brixton Academy. They required proof of vaccination or lateral flow test, but I don't know that I saw anyone in the crowd (capacity 5000 and it was sold out) wearing masks, just some of the staff. At least a couple songs where most of the crowd was singing along. And Saturday to the cinema, we wore masks until everyone was seated and then took them off as glasses were steaming up, which I know is the magical thinking of taking your mask off when you're at your table at a restaurant but not when you get up to go to the loo. I've been on the tube a bit more for work, and would say masking is like 60-75% right now, when I'm traveling (not rush hour).

So yeah, it is pretty weird, I know lots of people that are testing positive while vaccinated, but things are just kind of back to normal here in many ways, with a bit of mask-wearing which is pretty sporadic.

My own travels on the Central Line are probably more like 30% mask wearing. TFL says all the air in a tube car is replaced every... 7 minutes or something because of the doors opening and closing? but I probably feel the least safe there, because of the proximity and the amount of time. my commute means i'm sitting in the same car for about 45 minutes. with about 75% unmasked. all seats taken for much of the trip, some standing.

For some reason the cinema doesn't seem as bad to me, even though you're in there for longer, I'm not sure why. Even though nobody's masked. I guess everybody's sitting so much farther apart, the ceilings are incredibly high? Not sure any of that makes a difference though.

1 in 55 people in the UK are infected, and numbers rose 18% last week, to the second-highest point of the pandemic. Vaccinated people can still spread the virus. Vaccine efficacy reduces at five months.

It’s possible that “feeling” is not the best measure of epidemiology. Even facebook was putting “misinformation” flags on posts by a year ago; after the last few days here, maybe stet should be implementing something similar.

― bobo honkin' slobo babe (sic), Tuesday, 26 October 2021 bookmarkflaglink

It isn't just a feeling. It's clear the vaccines have worked as mitigation. Vaccinated adults will get something rougher than flu and not need a hospital. Mortality and Hospitalisations are far lower than last winter. 1-200 deaths a day is still terrible, looks like we should've begun vaccinating children earlier, been more aggressive at pushing boosters and never gotten rid of masks but you can say the risk has decreased from the figures.

It's interesting that cases are getting low again over the last couple of days. One to monitor.

Both my kids have had it in the last 2 weeks. Daughter (13) caught it day after getting vaccine, was rough a couple of days and has lost her sense of taste. Son (11) was completely asymptomatic and we'd have had no idea he was positive if we weren't testing because of his sister.

It was absolutely rampant in their school before half term, so much so that my daughter's year had to finish early for half term as they didn't have enough healthy teachers.

idk why i open this thread just to see sic being a dick to everyone for not having the same information he has, which isn’t even agreed upon by experts, maybe his posts should get flagged as misinformation too

maybe it’s cool and righteous to be a dick about this sorry

it's been nearly two fucking years of this, i'm used to posts that correct other posts without suggesting we introduce misinformation flags to ilx

anyway i wish i had kept these posts in my mind

It’s okay sic is being a massive dick

He’s also usually right

The two are not exclusive

it's true, i'm out

Didn’t take tracers post as an endorsement of the general feeling here, just (accurate) description, which is hardly misinfo

The uk approach is best illustrated by the fact that there is much talk about a mooted “PLAN B” which literally just entails recommending wfh and masks, and it’s being talked about (by p much everyone) as like a nuclear option instead of something that we should have done all along. I looked up what ashworth’s stance on this was & it was basically “we support the govt, plan b is a great idea but I really must insist we implement it soon” - this is a wider issue where labour & the media are all too happy to let the tories completely set the terms of the conversation, it’s inconceivable atm that they would be like “how about just one year we don’t play chicken with the health service”

Again, we lifted *every* restriction months ago when we had like half the population vaxxed so it’s not surprising that it’s all lalala vaccines work it’s fine (& also not surprising that our cases & deaths are much higher than neighbouring countries which are also doing relatively well w vaccines but which have kept masking, restrictions on large indoor events & other basic shit like that)

Even for this thread, suggesting someone gets a post tagged with "misinformation" for, afaict, accurately attempting to describe a general feeling, is a new low. It's exhausting to see someone swing in here (and other threads, even on ilm now!) to scold people, constantly.

Emotions run high when people’s lives are at stake. Forgive and half forget

I just keep looking at the overall plot of cases and marveling at how work forced us all back in the office, full time, almost exactly as the second highest peak of the entire pandemic (in the US) was about to crest. Heckuva job.

how has your office been this quarter?

COVID wise, fortunately, very good. No cases, that I'm aware of, among staff/faculty. Overall campus population positivity rate only once hovered over 0.8% so, whatever we're doing, it's working. Can't say the same for all of the mental health of coworkers, who have all come out of this in very, very different places.

did some of them quit?

it's been fun seeing the press deem this the The Great Resignation, realizing i quit and pulled a bon iver right in the middle of that. i feel very much more of the Great Resignation cohort than "millenials" or taurus or any other dumb thing i've been assigned

i am amazed at all the people who just carry on. it's very human of them, and also a lot of them have children or other people depending on them, so they have to carry on so as to not frighten the others. for me, for people with little attachments, it's just a giant LED screen with the 1984 apple ad on it, unmistakable, yelling "late-stage capitalism is falling apart on you"

Not as many people quit as I'd hoped, tbh, though I still think there are a number of departments "unofficially" working remote. There seems to be a lot of silence on that topic and I know quite a few people I interact with that are definitely NOT on campus full time. So I think some departments held on to staff by not toeing the party line. Some longtime staff did leave though, and it's been "funny" to watch the leadership be absolutely baffled[ as to why.

I’m kind of stunned by the difference between the UK and US on some things. Most arts venues here in the DC area and East Coast in general require proof of vaccine AND masking. The Kennedy Center will no longer accept proof of a negative PCR test as a substitute for vaccination although I think other venues still do. The Baltimore Symphony bans attendance by under-12s outright. Masking is enforced by ushers. Drinks and snack concessions at these venues are currently mothballed.

I haven’t been to a rock club yet, but I am pretty sure they still require proof of vaccination or a negative test but don’t know if masking is required.

if the UK is 90% vaccinated, how is it that things are going so far off the rails? the US isn't anywhere close to that, and people over here are just wildin', yet overall it seems not so bad. Am I missing something? Is it just a matter of the US being massively larger and more spread out?

haha, come to Texas. The actively will try to stop you from enforcing any kind of mask or vaccine requirements for most things.

xp