2021 AL MVP

yeah i was looking at bbref where he's got more than a win on guerrero, fangraphs has them closer

either way i'm happy to consider other guys besides the WAR leader but if i had to choose today i'd pick ohtani. i don't believe that august/september games are worth more

going back to what I was saying before, ohtani’s split OPS+ in games he started as a pitcher is 452, over 58 plate appearances. I’d love to see how many wins that’s worth if you changed his defensive adjustment from DH to P

in fact, i predict that ohtani will be out of the big leagues by 2026

give the kid his mvp for being an international superstar, a new babe ruth, doing something that literally no one else can do, for being really hot, and for being an icon. then let him suffer and die and go away

vlad jr is from the guerrero family. he will always hit the crap out of the ball, even if it's 2 feet outside, even if his arm is broken. he'll be fine. he will collect 2 MVPs and deserve a 3rd before his career is through

but also, am i wrong in thinking that if vlad finishes 1 RBI off johnny RBI and doesn't win the triple crown, then he has absolutely no chance at MVP? let's see, give it to a generational icon who is about to die (ohtani), or give it to someone who will win 2 MVPs later and whose chance of winning this one comes down to RBI opportunities

i don't believe that august/september games are worth more

I've advocated for this before without much agreement here. To me, it's just the mirror image of the concept of in-game leverage. (You could, I suppose, argue that with Ohtani's team more or less out of the running by the All-Star break, his late-season slump really doesn't matter.)

Perez tying "Bench's record" is false -- he has 30 HR as C and 15 as DH. They're not the same thing and he's not a serious candidate.

Vlad is amazing but come on. What Ohtani is doing was considered impossible by literally every expert and casual fan. There is almost no precedent for it in modern sport.

"Two good players in one roster spot" absolutely has value that WAR cannot account for.

Is this roster-spot thing a money issue? Hasn't he already been credited with the appropriate WAR, i.e. how many games better he is than a replacement hitter or pitcher?

If it's a money thing, do we start giving MVP candidates extra credit for things like taking less money in a free-agent year to stay where they are? (Not that that ever happens--you know, theoretically.) How much invisible WAR do we credit Ohtani with in every MVP contest?

I don't think an MVP hitter should check out after the All-Star game.

Good point about Bench/Perez. For what it's worth, I checked Bench's '70 season, and 7 of his 45 HR were hit while playing somewhere other than catcher (six as an outfielder, one at first base). So I guess the record is technically 38--or maybe someone else has it for catcher-only.

Is this roster-spot thing a money issue? Hasn't he already been credited with the appropriate WAR, i.e. how many games better he is than a replacement hitter or pitcher?

haven't really thought about it, but first, put aside the money. just think about the value of an entire extra roster spot. yes, he's already credited with WAR for how much better than he is than a replacement hitter and pitcher. now, think about about why baseball teams get excited about adding additional roster spots at the end of the season, before the playoffs.

from a cardinals perspective, we rarely carry a 3rd catcher. yadi always starts, anyway, and knizner (the backup) rarely plays. but the effect is that yadi can never come out of the game, because if he does, there's no backup to the backup. and when knizner gets a rare starting opportunity, yadi can't pitch-hit, etc. when there's roster space, they bring up this one guy (ali sanchez) to be the emergency catcher.

what's that extra spot worth? i don't know, but every single team will take it and use it

Maneuverability--fair point. I hope the Ben Zobrists of the world got their invisible WAR adjustment in MVP voting every year.

Vlad's within a game of Ohtani in fWAR (1.2 down in bWAR) and having a good day today. I'm going to hold off till the end, and hope he edges him out in at least one of the two. If it happens, I'm going to change my argument to, "Come on, the guy pitches and hits, and Vlad still has more value!"

haven't really thought about it, but first, put aside the money. just think about the value of an entire extra roster spot. yes, he's already credited with WAR for how much better than he is than a replacement hitter and pitcher. now, think about about why baseball teams get excited about adding additional roster spots at the end of the season, before the playoffs.

― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Sunday, September 19, 2021 2:20 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

by definition the player who fills this extra spot will be a replacement player, right?

I'm going to change my argument to, "Come on, the guy pitches and hits, and Vlad still has more value!"

lol, tbf that is a good argument! and don't get me wrong, sorry - vlad is having a great year and he's right up there with ohtani. you can make arguments for both for sure. i just want ohtani to win before he dies.

by definition the player who fills this extra spot will be a replacement player, right?

haha, sorta! i don't know, my life is upside-down right now so the little man in my brain who figures out things is just tossing up his arms in the air recently. i think they would be a meta-replacement player

like karl i fully expect him to explode in some form within a few years, or just spend half the season on the IL every year, or stop being very good at all at either position...... if he doesn't do that then we will be blessed and i will be cool with him just getting an award annually for it. if he does this long enough to win 10 MVPs i will be just as giddy about it by #10

there should be a new award, maybe even one given while ohtani is still playing, like now:

best pitcher/position player combo. The Ohtani award.

Give Ohtani the NL MVP since no one really deserves it

That's a good point, you could argue that since he's a pitcher who hits, he's de facto an NL player

by definition the player who fills this extra spot will be a replacement player, right?

overall, yes. but the extra roster flexibility allows for high-leverage use of one-tool players — if ohtani makes the room to carry career 75 OPS+ hitter jarrod dyson specifically to run in extra innings, that has real-life value not captured by WAR.

agreed re: Ohtani's longevity, can definitely see a future where pitchers figure him out a bit (which may be happening right now) and he's too perpetually injured to pitch regularly. really hope I'm wrong though!!

Perez's 46th HR evidently does count as an official record; you've got to play at least half your games at a position to qualify for a positional record.

https://www.mlb.com/royals/news/most-home-runs-by-a-catcher

(Javy Lopez holds the unofficial record with 42 while catching.)

Ohtani and Guerrero now separated by 0.4 fWAR (Burnes has moved to #1)--which actually surprised me, as Ohtani had a very good start yesterday.

three walks and two homers isn’t great for FIP

Over. I thought Vlad was the best choice two weeks ago--TC still viable, Jays on a streak, Ohtani supposedly finished pitching and slumping badly with the bat--but Vlad (1-17) and the Jays have cooled, Ohtani's had two good starts, and his hitting has picked up. Probably back to unanimous, or close.

yeah agree

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

god bless you, two people.

One of whom would change his vote today...