I love ohtani, but I do get the “narrative” meta-counter argument. being an above average pitcher and one of the best hitters in the league is awesome, but he’s not quite head and shoulders above the league anymore when it comes to overall value. he’s been truly atrocious for a couple of months now
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Saturday, 18 September 2021 04:13 (two years ago) link
what’s interesting is that his “value”, by WAR, might be depressed by playing in the AL? I was looking at bumgarner’s career hitting numbers the other day…his career batting WAR (on fangraphs) is 5.3 over 727 PA, good for 4.7 per 650 PA. ohtani this year clocks in at 4.6 in 569 PA, or 5.2 per 650. madbum’s career wRC+ is 44
imagine if shohei were in the NL and played RF on his off days?
I have to think about this more to decide if my logic makes sense
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Saturday, 18 September 2021 04:25 (two years ago) link
well he'd have to play RF well to not be dinged for defense but sure a DH is gonna get less WAR than an adequate fielder
― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 September 2021 04:30 (two years ago) link
i get what you mean though, it is a weird situation. replacement level is much higher in the AL since its any hitter vs a pitcher hitting
― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 September 2021 04:32 (two years ago) link
either way though he's essentially 2 good players at once to the team which is hard to out-value for a most valuable player award. who else is as good as 2 good players?
― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 September 2021 04:34 (two years ago) link
right you're essentially getting an extra roster spot with him which I don't think WAR takes into consideration
― frogbs, Saturday, 18 September 2021 04:42 (two years ago) link
Vlad any other year but this year. you just don't have two way players for everyone to fall in love with. overhyped yes, but in this case it's fine.
― Bee OK, Saturday, 18 September 2021 06:30 (two years ago) link
I just skimmed this, but I think it's everyone but one for Ohtani:
https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-mvp-roundtable
The Triple Crown seems academic--I cannot see Vlad making up 8 RBI in 16 games. There's a decent chance he won't lead in any of the three categories when the season ends.
Having said that (and to reinforce Kevin's post above): "does it matter that Vlad is finishing red hot and Ohtani has been a little cooler..." A "little" cooler? Ohtani has been terrible in August and September on the hitting end of things. As of today: .207/.327/.379. He's still got some room to turn that around a little, but I'd be curious as to whether an MVP has ever finished a season so poorly. There was the one season where Hamilton got the MVP sitting out most of September, so I guess you could use that as a precedent.
(But what about Ohtani's pitching for those two months? Very good August, lousy September; combined, you're talking about six starts and 35 innings.)
― clemenza, Saturday, 18 September 2021 13:41 (two years ago) link
something being “unprecedented” seems awfully narrative-y! interesting how those same mores are deployed in favor of shohei if things continue along this path.
so does ohtani just keep winning every year he’s above average on both sides? or does he only win MVP this year because of the novelty factor? or perhaps…will it be based on the cumulative amount of value he produces on a year by year basis?
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Saturday, 18 September 2021 14:08 (two years ago) link
the first and third are kinda the same though is what i was getting at - its hard to out-value someone whos producing two good players worth of WAR even when one of them has the DH penalty applied
― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 September 2021 14:36 (two years ago) link
and if you think the MVP award is about who contributed the most to their team then yes he should win every year. they didn't stop giving it to barry bonds after the first year he obp-ed .600 as if that was no longer impressive the second or third or fourth time
― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 September 2021 14:38 (two years ago) link
err .500 you know what i mean
― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 September 2021 14:39 (two years ago) link
frogbs’s point that his ability to play both starter and DH essentially frees up a roster spot notwithstanding, our currently accepted framework for “value” has other guys within rounding error
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Saturday, 18 September 2021 16:04 (two years ago) link
Ohtani’s arm is going to explode in the next 2 or 5 years. Probably sooner. Give it to him now while he really is one of the best hitters and the best pitchers. It’s incredible, and as much as everyone just assumes he’ll keep doing it and there will be this problem with giving him 10+ MVPs, irl tragedy and disappoint will strike relentlessly until he is a 80% shell of his potential and his combined WAR dips below 6
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Saturday, 18 September 2021 16:16 (two years ago) link
yeah i was looking at bbref where he's got more than a win on guerrero, fangraphs has them closer
either way i'm happy to consider other guys besides the WAR leader but if i had to choose today i'd pick ohtani. i don't believe that august/september games are worth more
― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 September 2021 16:24 (two years ago) link
going back to what I was saying before, ohtani’s split OPS+ in games he started as a pitcher is 452, over 58 plate appearances. I’d love to see how many wins that’s worth if you changed his defensive adjustment from DH to P
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Saturday, 18 September 2021 16:24 (two years ago) link
in fact, i predict that ohtani will be out of the big leagues by 2026
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Saturday, 18 September 2021 16:42 (two years ago) link
give the kid his mvp for being an international superstar, a new babe ruth, doing something that literally no one else can do, for being really hot, and for being an icon. then let him suffer and die and go away
vlad jr is from the guerrero family. he will always hit the crap out of the ball, even if it's 2 feet outside, even if his arm is broken. he'll be fine. he will collect 2 MVPs and deserve a 3rd before his career is through
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Saturday, 18 September 2021 16:43 (two years ago) link
but also, am i wrong in thinking that if vlad finishes 1 RBI off johnny RBI and doesn't win the triple crown, then he has absolutely no chance at MVP? let's see, give it to a generational icon who is about to die (ohtani), or give it to someone who will win 2 MVPs later and whose chance of winning this one comes down to RBI opportunities
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Saturday, 18 September 2021 16:50 (two years ago) link
i don't believe that august/september games are worth more
I've advocated for this before without much agreement here. To me, it's just the mirror image of the concept of in-game leverage. (You could, I suppose, argue that with Ohtani's team more or less out of the running by the All-Star break, his late-season slump really doesn't matter.)
― clemenza, Saturday, 18 September 2021 23:24 (two years ago) link
Perez tying "Bench's record" is false -- he has 30 HR as C and 15 as DH. They're not the same thing and he's not a serious candidate.
Vlad is amazing but come on. What Ohtani is doing was considered impossible by literally every expert and casual fan. There is almost no precedent for it in modern sport.
"Two good players in one roster spot" absolutely has value that WAR cannot account for.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 19 September 2021 09:25 (two years ago) link
Is this roster-spot thing a money issue? Hasn't he already been credited with the appropriate WAR, i.e. how many games better he is than a replacement hitter or pitcher?
If it's a money thing, do we start giving MVP candidates extra credit for things like taking less money in a free-agent year to stay where they are? (Not that that ever happens--you know, theoretically.) How much invisible WAR do we credit Ohtani with in every MVP contest?
I don't think an MVP hitter should check out after the All-Star game.
― clemenza, Sunday, 19 September 2021 13:33 (two years ago) link
Good point about Bench/Perez. For what it's worth, I checked Bench's '70 season, and 7 of his 45 HR were hit while playing somewhere other than catcher (six as an outfielder, one at first base). So I guess the record is technically 38--or maybe someone else has it for catcher-only.
― clemenza, Sunday, 19 September 2021 13:59 (two years ago) link
haven't really thought about it, but first, put aside the money. just think about the value of an entire extra roster spot. yes, he's already credited with WAR for how much better than he is than a replacement hitter and pitcher. now, think about about why baseball teams get excited about adding additional roster spots at the end of the season, before the playoffs.
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Sunday, 19 September 2021 18:20 (two years ago) link
from a cardinals perspective, we rarely carry a 3rd catcher. yadi always starts, anyway, and knizner (the backup) rarely plays. but the effect is that yadi can never come out of the game, because if he does, there's no backup to the backup. and when knizner gets a rare starting opportunity, yadi can't pitch-hit, etc. when there's roster space, they bring up this one guy (ali sanchez) to be the emergency catcher.
what's that extra spot worth? i don't know, but every single team will take it and use it
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Sunday, 19 September 2021 18:28 (two years ago) link
Maneuverability--fair point. I hope the Ben Zobrists of the world got their invisible WAR adjustment in MVP voting every year.
Vlad's within a game of Ohtani in fWAR (1.2 down in bWAR) and having a good day today. I'm going to hold off till the end, and hope he edges him out in at least one of the two. If it happens, I'm going to change my argument to, "Come on, the guy pitches and hits, and Vlad still has more value!"
― clemenza, Sunday, 19 September 2021 19:44 (two years ago) link
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Sunday, September 19, 2021 2:20 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
by definition the player who fills this extra spot will be a replacement player, right?
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Sunday, 19 September 2021 19:45 (two years ago) link
I'm going to change my argument to, "Come on, the guy pitches and hits, and Vlad still has more value!"
lol, tbf that is a good argument! and don't get me wrong, sorry - vlad is having a great year and he's right up there with ohtani. you can make arguments for both for sure. i just want ohtani to win before he dies.
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Sunday, 19 September 2021 20:56 (two years ago) link
haha, sorta! i don't know, my life is upside-down right now so the little man in my brain who figures out things is just tossing up his arms in the air recently. i think they would be a meta-replacement player
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Sunday, 19 September 2021 20:58 (two years ago) link
like karl i fully expect him to explode in some form within a few years, or just spend half the season on the IL every year, or stop being very good at all at either position...... if he doesn't do that then we will be blessed and i will be cool with him just getting an award annually for it. if he does this long enough to win 10 MVPs i will be just as giddy about it by #10
― ✖, Sunday, 19 September 2021 22:43 (two years ago) link
there should be a new award, maybe even one given while ohtani is still playing, like now:
best pitcher/position player combo. The Ohtani award.
― typo punishment 3: people shouldn't have to feel like they have ea (Karl Malone), Sunday, 19 September 2021 22:49 (two years ago) link
Give Ohtani the NL MVP since no one really deserves it
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Sunday, 19 September 2021 22:54 (two years ago) link
That's a good point, you could argue that since he's a pitcher who hits, he's de facto an NL player
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 20 September 2021 00:38 (two years ago) link
overall, yes. but the extra roster flexibility allows for high-leverage use of one-tool players — if ohtani makes the room to carry career 75 OPS+ hitter jarrod dyson specifically to run in extra innings, that has real-life value not captured by WAR.
― mookieproof, Monday, 20 September 2021 01:54 (two years ago) link
agreed re: Ohtani's longevity, can definitely see a future where pitchers figure him out a bit (which may be happening right now) and he's too perpetually injured to pitch regularly. really hope I'm wrong though!!
― frogbs, Monday, 20 September 2021 02:17 (two years ago) link
Perez's 46th HR evidently does count as an official record; you've got to play at least half your games at a position to qualify for a positional record.
https://www.mlb.com/royals/news/most-home-runs-by-a-catcher
― clemenza, Monday, 20 September 2021 22:30 (two years ago) link
(Javy Lopez holds the unofficial record with 42 while catching.)
― clemenza, Monday, 20 September 2021 22:31 (two years ago) link
Ohtani and Guerrero now separated by 0.4 fWAR (Burnes has moved to #1)--which actually surprised me, as Ohtani had a very good start yesterday.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 21 September 2021 17:15 (two years ago) link
three walks and two homers isn’t great for FIP
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 21 September 2021 17:59 (two years ago) link
Over. I thought Vlad was the best choice two weeks ago--TC still viable, Jays on a streak, Ohtani supposedly finished pitching and slumping badly with the bat--but Vlad (1-17) and the Jays have cooled, Ohtani's had two good starts, and his hitting has picked up. Probably back to unanimous, or close.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 28 September 2021 14:49 (two years ago) link
yeah agree
― mens rea activist (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 29 September 2021 11:11 (two years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Friday, 1 October 2021 00:01 (two years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Saturday, 2 October 2021 00:01 (two years ago) link
god bless you, two people.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 2 October 2021 04:04 (two years ago) link
One of whom would change his vote today...
― clemenza, Saturday, 2 October 2021 18:24 (two years ago) link