Bryce Harper, catcher and Scott Boras advisee

pretty solid!

I used to be so down on Bryce but I was wrong

Definitely an MVP candidate...not sure I'd assume his career inconsistency is over, though. (His career numbers will likely remain in proximity to HOF-level because of how good his good years are.)

he has a good case but man what a depressing NL MVP race it's been, you've got prime acuna and tatis and soto and degrom and mookie and the league leader might not surpass 6 fWAR

well i guess corbin burnes and zack wheeler surpassed it already tbf

neither of them seem like candidates though

not sure I'd assume his career inconsistency is over, though.

this is what i mean, though - he hasn't been very inconsistent! i think that's his reputation. but look at his numbers:

https://i.imgur.com/Eg7Yf8K.png

his 2014 is his second worst, as a hitter. but he was 21 years old, and seriously injured for maybe the first time (?) in his career? and even then, he puts up a 115 wRC+, as a 21 year old, only looking bad in comparison to his own first couple years.

then his MVP 2015, which i think had the effect of resetting the expectation of him as a perennial mike trout superstar.

then his worst year, offensively, 2016. wRC+ of 111 -- 11% better than an average hitter -- dropping from .330 BA to .243 (BAPIB dropped from .369 to .264) looked bad, but his OBP was still .373!

and that's about it. those are his relatively bad seasons. his next worst hitting season is when he was 19 (wRC+ 121), and after that is 2019 (wRC+ 125), his first year in Philadelphia.

he's a pretty good lock for 4+ fWAR each year, and with upside for years like 2015 and 2021 as well. seems pretty consistent!

I think we're just looking at it from a different angle. then his MVP 2015, which i think had the effect of resetting the expectation of him as a perennial mike trout superstar--unfair as it may be, that's mine. If he were to stay where he is right now for a couple more seasons, I'd likely stop thinking that way. I still see Fred Lynn as a good comparison. Lynn also had a very good age-28 season--not as good as Harper this year, but he did get some MVP support. Another comparison (see above), this time Harper today vs. Lynn through his age-28 season:

Harper: .278/.389/.520, 141 OPS+, 38.4 WAR
Lynn: .308/.383/.520, 141 OPS+, 32.1 WAR

That's pretty damn close (Harper had a three-year head start on WAR). Lynn followed up with a disastrous strike-year season (injury? don't remember), then was never the same after that. So we'll see.

i guess i just mean, 10 years, 42 WAR for harper. he already proved himself

Good column:

https://open.substack.com/pub/joeposnanski/p/the-yankees-bryce-harper-and-what?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

(xposts) A year later--and assuming Harper continues playing this well--the Lynn comparison is moot.