SB 51: the California politics thread

Paffrath was in second place a couple days ago (by a good ways) so you could at least pick a Dem as the backup for question #1 going "yes."

he would be a complete joke and a total embarrassment for the state, but at least he (hopefully, who knows) wouldn't appoint a republican senator if Dianne Feinstein croaks

Agree, but less of an embarrassment than Elder getting in.

I am usually very pragmatic about elections, but it's hard to be about this one

Promising

Amid increasing scrutiny over his treatment of women and calls for his withdrawal from the race, California Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder is shaking up his campaign team and hired a new campaign manager, POLITICO has learned https://t.co/gn53sOBhga

— POLITICO (@politico) August 23, 2021

Vote no but my guitar player Adam Papagan is running so vote for him too! Meet Kevin is a piece of shit youtube grifter landlord scum.

I moved to San Diego right before the Gray Davis recall election and my roommate decided she wanted to throw her name in the ring. She paid more of the rent than I did, so that made me her go-to signature getter. It still felt like a shitty thing to ask. None of the people who I asked to sign her petition were remotely amused. I gave up after a torturous and embarrassing afternoon trudging up and down University Ave.

promising (the point here is not that democrats are turning out early, they always do, it's that this electorate doesn't look different from 2020)

The current partisan breakdown of returned ballots in the California Recall is about the same as it was at an equivalent point in 2020:

2021 Recall (8/23): 58% D, 20% R, 22% Other
2020 General Election (10/12): 57% D, 21% R, 22% Otherhttps://t.co/cJobEXBeqp

— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) August 23, 2021

not sure if she was ever seriously in contention for VP, but i've heard her mentioned for feinstein's seat, so this would be interesting

NEW: @KarenBassTweets is "seriously considering" a campaign for Mayor of Los Angeles. Says she has been "humbled and really honored" by people encouraging her to run. (#DraftBass)

We also talked CA recall + @AAVREP_ work mobilizing Black voters. Coming soon for @NPR @KPCC @LAist

— Libby Denkmann (@libdenk) August 31, 2021

Replacement Ballot
(R) Elder 27%
(R) Cox 6%
(D) Paffrath 6%
(D) McGowan 6%
(D) Baade 5%
(R) Kiley 5%
(D) Ross 5%
(R) Faulconer 5%
Others 3% or less

Faulconer's not even close. Mea culpa!

hmm

Newsom won't be recalled, chill out folks. https://t.co/l9cCWTSEFn

— Noah Smith 🐇 (@Noahpinion) August 31, 2021

Is Noah Smith a Nate Silver alias?

no i think he's like a shit ezra klein

Do we still have eviction moratorium?

Maybe?

COVID-19 Tenant Relief Act (AB 832)

On June 28, 2021, the Governor signed a bill that extends the protections in AB 3088 and SB 91 through September 30, 2021 and includes some additional protections. The time in which landlords may not evict tenants for nonpayment of rent if those tenants have delivered to their landlord a declaration of COVID-19-related financial distress within 15 days of being served with a notice to quit was extended to September 30, 2021. For notices to quit based on rent due between September 1, 2020 and the new end date of the protections, September 30, 2021, tenants’ time to pay the required 25% of the total amount of rent due was extended to September 30, 2021. The provisions regarding the rental assistance program were expanded, to provide that for qualified tenants, 100% of the amounts due to the landlord would be paid.

You know, folks have been (rightly, imho) pointing out what a dangerous decision Newsom made not having a backup, but it occurs to me that no one has pointed out how dangerous the R's strategy was. The decision on the R side to not endorse a specific candidate clearly increased the chance of a recall success, but as we can see in the polls it eliminated the possibility of a competent candidate. It's clear that the R's had no plan for seriously governing at all (which, I know, is a recurring pattern).

Newsom isn't going to get recalled if the latest polls are any indication.

"Seems like he's being recalled for eating at a posh restaurant, as far as I can tell"

that is absolutely it, plus anger at his 'response to covid' which these days people are rating highly; it's a minority of people who are still fucking pissed about last year's lockdowns. Newsom is a dipstick with absolutely terrible instincts for optics, but he is not very bad at actual policy and governance, so hopefully this situation knocked a little sense into him, but I doubt it.

now we can all hope Feinstein retires after this recall is over but I also doubt that will happen

he is not very bad at actual policy and governance

🤔

that phrase could be read different ways -- either as "kinda good actually" or as "he sucks but he's not completely awful"

I still can't imagine we could end up with Larry fucking Elder. I can't believe it will happen.

And your cynicism about it caek is very off-putting

yes you've said before.

I appreciate your not reacting angrily to my comment, sorry, I'm just so disgusted by the world right now

i assume we all agree that larry edler would be a disaster. newsom is not a disaster and i very much hope he wins this.

but he has bad policy beliefs, he's the chief executive of a badly run state, and he's very obviously and objectively a bad electoral politician. pointing this out is not cynicism. having such low expectations that you think he's good despite that (if that's what you think?) is cynicism.

on the bright side, assuming newsom wins (seems like he will) and faulconer loses to edler in the other vote, faulconer's statewide career is over before it began.

I don't have low expectations, he's made mistakes but I don't think he's run the state badly or has bad policy beliefs.

Ezra Klein had a piece the other day more in the lines of akm's view than caek's, but for me i'm kind of torn. I mean obviously Care Not Cash didn't solve homelessness, but then Jerry Brown had excellent instincts but a huge fucking blindspot on housing (which I do believe is a huge issue).

...and there is some signs of hope in housing under Newsom.

Also if you haven't read it, the Ezkenasi piece on missionlocal from a few days ago is fun.

I thought the Ezra klein piece was good fwiw

Jerry Brown had excellent instincts but a huge fucking blindspot on housing (which I do believe is a huge issue).

lol ... speaking of mayors who became governors (yeah I know he had been governor before as well as after) ... I could rant about Jerry's housing policy as mayor of Oakland, and how the building of hundreds (maybe thousands by now) of market rate and luxury apartments and condos in my neighborhood has seriously demonstrated the flaws of YIMBYism ... as the majority of these units are vacant, meanwhile the unhoused communities keep expanding mere blocks from this housing.

i might regret saying this, but i've pretty much stopped worrying newsom is going to lose

um, this little detail in Playbook this morning. @GavinNewsom
recall leader -->

"...Heatlie, the recall’s founder, tells POLITICO he was missing from his regular radio gig last week because he caught the coronavirus. Heatlie told POLITICO he has not been vaccinated..." https://t.co/ikP7CvklRw

— Angela Hart (@ahartreports) September 7, 2021

Just up the road, by a freeway exit, I saw two brand new signs zip-tied to a chain link fence: DEMOCRATS FOR THE RECALL and ASIANS FOR THE RECALL, the latter including some Chinese characters. There was no "paid for by" or URLs or anything, just these bogus org names.

There were gone the next day.

where was this fence?

I saw two brand new signs zip-tied to a chain link fence

A little voice inside my head said "Don't look back, you can never look back."

This has been a test of the ILX obligatory response system. Had this been an actual response it would have been funnier.

I saw an ILX in the Home Depot parking lot the other day ...

The fence is where the 580 meets Park Blvd in Oakland

1. remove that definite article when talking about 580 if you want to rep Oakland
2. oh yeah, I know that fence lol

He’s been repeating this line, a quote from a highly critical la times oped, on the stump. It doesn’t seem like a vote winner but what do I know

Elder onstage now: “Say hello to the black face of white supremacy!” pic.twitter.com/NXWFZqHFRe

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 8, 2021

Well, his proposed reparations for former slave owners should strike a chord in orange county

(I'm actually kinda glad he's the front runner)

the guy who started the recall has said his candidacy has been "unhelpful" so yeah

Now that it looks like Newsom will prevail, yeah.

*sotto vocce*

"why couldn't we get a WHITE white supremacist?"

Well, his proposed reparations for former slave owners should strike a chord in orange county

― Andy the Grasshopper, Wednesday, September 8, 2021 4:47 PM (one hour ago)

CoCo County too -- in parts. I drove through Contra Costa County today -- it really does get warmer. #negativwisdom

https://i.imgur.com/vj0dgW1.png

The https://t.co/yhzYavvEFf campaign site has a “Stop Fraud” button.

Upon clicking it, visitors are sent to a site called https://t.co/hID0ZD0xSD that claims he already lost tomorrow’s California special election due to fraud. pic.twitter.com/wuBVX9MRE3

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 14, 2021

I think most people are in agreement at this point

There hasn't been a republican elected to statewide office since 2006, so that fraud is clearly very entrenched and effective

wake up sheeple!

Many QAnon believers think California is majority Republican. In the weeks after the 2020 presidential election, QAnon discourse was full of baseless assertions that Trump won California; in reality, Biden received 11 million votes to Trump’s 6 million.

In an attempt to sow the seeds of this “rigged” election narrative, one popular QAnon forum has been filled with stories pushing California election misinformation. One highly upvoted story in recent days was headlined: “Gov. Gavin Newsom warns Californians: ‘You will all die of COVID if I’m recalled.’” Although this is written as a direct quote, Newsom never said this...

California used to be majority Republican ... in our lifetimes, and in many of theirs too. There are some counties that are still heavily Republican. Conversely, there are people that live in liberal/progressive regions that are shocked when they realize a significant part of their state is like "those other places" (e.g. Texas, Florida)

Yes, these people are ridiculous though.

it me tbh

I’ve never been inland, though.