SB 51: the California politics thread

it’s so crazy. it seems like we’ve had a recall vote on every governor since i moved to this stupid state in 2002

Gray Davis was in a far weaker position than Newsome is right now.. and no big star candidate like Schwarzenegger

Seems like he's being recalled for eating at a posh restaurant, as far as I can tell

Cox and Elder are both lunatics so I voted Faulconer.

It doesn't matter if there's a big star candidate. The big star is the idea of recalling Newsom, which is very attractive for some. Elder seems to have the strongest constituency among the listed candidates.

I can see that it makes sense to vote for someone in case he is recalled, but I couldn't do it. Faulconer voted for Trump in 2020, which is enough said. I don't want to add to his votes to bolster his case for running next year

I haven't voted yet, but I'll probably go for Faulconer. Elder is leading in the question #2 polls, and I'd hate to see him get it.

Even if Newsom is booted (through Dem sloth), I don't think whichever Repub wins will get anywhere near enough of a boost to win in 2022.

Supermajorities for, what, 5 years and they’ve just sat around and done nothing about a recall process that can only hurt them.

Even voting for a Green candidate (with a "no" on recall) would be better than leaving it blank. It shows support for the progressive side.

that was my thinking, but I couldn't imagine it registering in any way, and I didn't want to acknowledge the legitimacy of the recall by voting for someone else

since i moved to this stupid state in 2002

consider approx. 47 of the alternatives tho

just sayin

- go to Lowe’s
- buy a 20” box fan
- buy four 20x30” Filterete 1900 filters (the blue ones)
- buy wide painters tape (any color but blue matches nicely)
- make a box out of the filters (arrows pointing in)
- tape the box fan to the top of the filter box, air blowing upward pic.twitter.com/0IbxBKmUw8

— Burrito Justice (@burritojustice) August 20, 2021

(although the real thing is still in stock for now, and probably doesn't cost a lot more than that contraption)

About to say.

CA Superior Court with a Friday night bombshell: Prop 22 can't be enforced because of the clause that required 7/8 of the state legislature to support any amendments (h/t @veenadubal) pic.twitter.com/pPW5zJf0q3

— o...k (@kateconger) August 21, 2021

looool they fucked up their drafting, classic boner

Cheered at that boner tbh; now suck it up and exploit your workers a bit less

Not just california but this seems as good a place as any to share this observation. Portland this weekend, Los Angeles last.

There is political street violence somewhere on the west coast pretty much every weekend now

— Julia Carrie Wong (@juliacarriew) August 23, 2021

I can't believe anyone voted for Falcouner, wtf. Vote for some nobody, that at least takes a vote away from the dangerous 4 (Falcouner, Elder, Cox and Jenner). Why on earth would you contribute to their totals?

vote no on recall, but newsom's delegation of california's vaccination program to a donor after based on a no-bid contract was obviously a bad idea and should disqualify him from a second democratic nomination: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08/22/private-consultants-vaccination-drive-outsourced/.

Why on earth would you contribute to their totals?

Is there another candidate on the list with better qualifications who also has a chance of winning? I didn't see one. To me it's a choice between being stabbed in the leg vs shot in the heart and I choose leg.

Makes sense. I didn't see one either and he would be better than Elder. I just couldn't do it

Paffrath was in second place a couple days ago (by a good ways) so you could at least pick a Dem as the backup for question #1 going "yes."

he would be a complete joke and a total embarrassment for the state, but at least he (hopefully, who knows) wouldn't appoint a republican senator if Dianne Feinstein croaks

Agree, but less of an embarrassment than Elder getting in.

I am usually very pragmatic about elections, but it's hard to be about this one

Promising

Amid increasing scrutiny over his treatment of women and calls for his withdrawal from the race, California Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder is shaking up his campaign team and hired a new campaign manager, POLITICO has learned https://t.co/gn53sOBhga

— POLITICO (@politico) August 23, 2021

Vote no but my guitar player Adam Papagan is running so vote for him too! Meet Kevin is a piece of shit youtube grifter landlord scum.

I moved to San Diego right before the Gray Davis recall election and my roommate decided she wanted to throw her name in the ring. She paid more of the rent than I did, so that made me her go-to signature getter. It still felt like a shitty thing to ask. None of the people who I asked to sign her petition were remotely amused. I gave up after a torturous and embarrassing afternoon trudging up and down University Ave.

promising (the point here is not that democrats are turning out early, they always do, it's that this electorate doesn't look different from 2020)

The current partisan breakdown of returned ballots in the California Recall is about the same as it was at an equivalent point in 2020:

2021 Recall (8/23): 58% D, 20% R, 22% Other
2020 General Election (10/12): 57% D, 21% R, 22% Otherhttps://t.co/cJobEXBeqp

— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) August 23, 2021

not sure if she was ever seriously in contention for VP, but i've heard her mentioned for feinstein's seat, so this would be interesting

NEW: @KarenBassTweets is "seriously considering" a campaign for Mayor of Los Angeles. Says she has been "humbled and really honored" by people encouraging her to run. (#DraftBass)

We also talked CA recall + @AAVREP_ work mobilizing Black voters. Coming soon for @NPR @KPCC @LAist

— Libby Denkmann (@libdenk) August 31, 2021

Replacement Ballot
(R) Elder 27%
(R) Cox 6%
(D) Paffrath 6%
(D) McGowan 6%
(D) Baade 5%
(R) Kiley 5%
(D) Ross 5%
(R) Faulconer 5%
Others 3% or less

Faulconer's not even close. Mea culpa!

hmm

Newsom won't be recalled, chill out folks. https://t.co/l9cCWTSEFn

— Noah Smith 🐇 (@Noahpinion) August 31, 2021

Is Noah Smith a Nate Silver alias?

no i think he's like a shit ezra klein

Do we still have eviction moratorium?

Maybe?

COVID-19 Tenant Relief Act (AB 832)

On June 28, 2021, the Governor signed a bill that extends the protections in AB 3088 and SB 91 through September 30, 2021 and includes some additional protections. The time in which landlords may not evict tenants for nonpayment of rent if those tenants have delivered to their landlord a declaration of COVID-19-related financial distress within 15 days of being served with a notice to quit was extended to September 30, 2021. For notices to quit based on rent due between September 1, 2020 and the new end date of the protections, September 30, 2021, tenants’ time to pay the required 25% of the total amount of rent due was extended to September 30, 2021. The provisions regarding the rental assistance program were expanded, to provide that for qualified tenants, 100% of the amounts due to the landlord would be paid.

You know, folks have been (rightly, imho) pointing out what a dangerous decision Newsom made not having a backup, but it occurs to me that no one has pointed out how dangerous the R's strategy was. The decision on the R side to not endorse a specific candidate clearly increased the chance of a recall success, but as we can see in the polls it eliminated the possibility of a competent candidate. It's clear that the R's had no plan for seriously governing at all (which, I know, is a recurring pattern).

Newsom isn't going to get recalled if the latest polls are any indication.

"Seems like he's being recalled for eating at a posh restaurant, as far as I can tell"

that is absolutely it, plus anger at his 'response to covid' which these days people are rating highly; it's a minority of people who are still fucking pissed about last year's lockdowns. Newsom is a dipstick with absolutely terrible instincts for optics, but he is not very bad at actual policy and governance, so hopefully this situation knocked a little sense into him, but I doubt it.

now we can all hope Feinstein retires after this recall is over but I also doubt that will happen

he is not very bad at actual policy and governance

🤔

that phrase could be read different ways -- either as "kinda good actually" or as "he sucks but he's not completely awful"

I still can't imagine we could end up with Larry fucking Elder. I can't believe it will happen.

And your cynicism about it caek is very off-putting

yes you've said before.

I appreciate your not reacting angrily to my comment, sorry, I'm just so disgusted by the world right now

i assume we all agree that larry edler would be a disaster. newsom is not a disaster and i very much hope he wins this.

but he has bad policy beliefs, he's the chief executive of a badly run state, and he's very obviously and objectively a bad electoral politician. pointing this out is not cynicism. having such low expectations that you think he's good despite that (if that's what you think?) is cynicism.

on the bright side, assuming newsom wins (seems like he will) and faulconer loses to edler in the other vote, faulconer's statewide career is over before it began.

I don't have low expectations, he's made mistakes but I don't think he's run the state badly or has bad policy beliefs.

Ezra Klein had a piece the other day more in the lines of akm's view than caek's, but for me i'm kind of torn. I mean obviously Care Not Cash didn't solve homelessness, but then Jerry Brown had excellent instincts but a huge fucking blindspot on housing (which I do believe is a huge issue).

...and there is some signs of hope in housing under Newsom.

Also if you haven't read it, the Ezkenasi piece on missionlocal from a few days ago is fun.

I thought the Ezra klein piece was good fwiw

Jerry Brown had excellent instincts but a huge fucking blindspot on housing (which I do believe is a huge issue).

lol ... speaking of mayors who became governors (yeah I know he had been governor before as well as after) ... I could rant about Jerry's housing policy as mayor of Oakland, and how the building of hundreds (maybe thousands by now) of market rate and luxury apartments and condos in my neighborhood has seriously demonstrated the flaws of YIMBYism ... as the majority of these units are vacant, meanwhile the unhoused communities keep expanding mere blocks from this housing.

i might regret saying this, but i've pretty much stopped worrying newsom is going to lose

um, this little detail in Playbook this morning. @GavinNewsom
recall leader -->

"...Heatlie, the recall’s founder, tells POLITICO he was missing from his regular radio gig last week because he caught the coronavirus. Heatlie told POLITICO he has not been vaccinated..." https://t.co/ikP7CvklRw

— Angela Hart (@ahartreports) September 7, 2021

Just up the road, by a freeway exit, I saw two brand new signs zip-tied to a chain link fence: DEMOCRATS FOR THE RECALL and ASIANS FOR THE RECALL, the latter including some Chinese characters. There was no "paid for by" or URLs or anything, just these bogus org names.

There were gone the next day.