Defenestrate Them All: Canadian Politics 2021

Alberta fighting hard to take the mantle of worst covid response back from Ford

Looks like we've pulled ahead of the US and UK in both the % of the population that had the first dose and that is fully vaccinated, and are tied with Israel for 11th in the world wrt being fully vaccinated (we're ahead of them for first doses): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/hinshaw-covid-apology-confusion-1.6129785

In a column sent to various media outlets Wednesday, Dr. Deena Hinshaw says her words have caused some people to think she believes COVID-19 is over.

Hinshaw says that wasn't her intended message.

She said in the column that lifting precautions, including isolation requirements, asymptomatic testing and contact tracing will support the whole health of Albertans by allowing the province to focus on other health threats, opioid deaths and syphilis.

I want 2 scream

I give up

Ontario NDP Leader @AndreaHorwath doesn't think vaccines should be mandatory. Instead, she says education workers who aren't vaccinated should be required to take rapid tests.

"Unlike @StevenDelDuca, I don't take lightly people's charter rights," says Horwath. pic.twitter.com/Q4rPbd0uNp

— Power & Politics (@PnPCBC) August 4, 2021

why are political leaders so hellbent against learning anything even after [insert timeframe here depending on whether you want to see this as just a single issue or part of a larger thing] of this shit

fuck ford's gonna be re-elected isn't he

he's gonna outlast kenney!

Kenney has been much worse than Ford from what I've seen. Ford is not nearly so overtly racist and has at least consistently been somewhat willing to listen to constituents and moderate his policies; in comparison to Kenney, he also seems like a model of caution wrt COVID. Liberalizing rent control, scrapping planned labour protections, and privatizing home care are still terrible tbc and I'm not voting PC, but I'd take him over Kenney if forced to choose.

But yeah, polls have been showing PCs pretty likely to win: https://338canada.com/ontario/

my sense was that ford is unpopular in ontario but the opposition is completely ineffective. In contrast with Notley's Alberta NDP, who nail Kenney on everything.

His popularity went up during the pandemic. There was a perception aiui (not 100% unfounded) that he was handling it competently. The NDP have overall been a fairly good Opposition imo though this is not Horwath's best moment. Liberals usually reap the benefits though, despite their near-absence of a Parliamentary presence.

what is horwath's best moment

the last 12 months of Ontario govt's incoherent covid policies seem really exploitable by a competent opposition

They did get pools and necessary physio exercise facilities reopened for people with disabilities, although that was really more Harden than Horwath. They've pressed things like paid sick days pretty consistently but they might have been able to draw more of a big picture, perhaps. I had actually been thinking more of the Opposition pre-COVID. I think Horwath has been trying to paint a picture of Ford's "incoherence": https://www.ontariondp.ca/news/horwath-calls-ford-avoid-same-re-opening-mistakes . I think, though, that people are more likely to see this as flexibility and compromise on Ford's part. Kenney's more "coherent" approach seems easier to poke holes in.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08/10/a-fourth-wave-of-covid-19-is-bearing-down-on-ontario-heres-a-sobering-warning-about-what-to-expect-as-new-cases-spike.html

With Ontario seeing more than three straight weeks of growth in daily COVID-19 cases — primarily in people who have not been vaccinated — the province is “most definitely” in a fourth wave, says a top doctor with the government’s science advisory table.

And with the number of new cases currently doubling every 10 days, Dr. Peter Juni, scientific director of the science table, warns the province could see as many as 1,200 new cases per day by the time school resumes in less than a month. That’s up from a current average of just over 300.

For those who choose to remain unvaccinated, Juni has a sobering message: “If we continue on our current reopening path, the probability of unvaccinated people across all age groups to experience infection in the next six to 12 months is 80 to 90 per cent. And the risk of complications from Delta in this unvaccinated group is two to three times higher than with previous variants.”

... “We’ve never been as open as we are right now during the entire pandemic. Never. We’re only able to afford that because of the absolutely successful vaccine rollout,” Juni said. He noted, however, that “we can’t have our cake and eat it too.”

“If we want to continue to be as open as we are, we need to protect the health-care system from the unvaccinated. We can only do that if the unvaccinated are being kept out of high risk settings, such as indoor dining, gyms and nightclubs.”

And that means the possible need for future restrictions if the number of COVID hospitalizations among the unvaccinated, driven by the now dominant Delta variant, begin to overwhelm the health-care system, he said.

Because of this possibility, Juni said a better key indicator moving forward is hospital occupancy, echoing comments made Monday by Dr. Kieran Moore, the province’s chief medical officer.

....As of Tuesday, 130 COVID patients were in hospital, including 109 in the ICU, according to the science table.

“If we achieve something like 400 to 500 COVID-19 hospital occupancies in the province, we will need to impose additional restrictions so that we are basically able to slow case growth down,” Juni said.

Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, pegs the first day of the fourth wave in Ontario as July 16, when the province entered Step 3 of its reopening plan and also, coincidentally, the day the province’s seven-day case average hit its lowest level before starting to rise again.

“You can circle that date on a calendar, because that’s the day we said, ‘hey, if you’re not vaccinated and you don’t care, go to the gym and exhale on everyone around you.’ That’s when we said ‘Delta, come on down!’” Furness said. “The wave starts when you set up the conditions for this to happen.”

To get a sense of how low vaccination rates can strain health-care systems, we need look no further than south of the border to the U.S., where the Delta variant has pushed cases and hospitalizations to the highest they’ve been in six months. New cases are averaging more than 126,000 cases per day, according to Johns Hopkins University. Unvaccinated residents in states in the deep south, in particular, have been hardest hit.

For those who choose to remain unvaccinated, Juni has a sobering message: “If we continue on our current reopening path, the probability of unvaccinated people across all age groups to experience infection in the next six to 12 months is 80 to 90 per cent. And the risk of complications from Delta in this unvaccinated group is two to three times higher than with previous variants.”

i think the last part of this is wrong, or at least still unconfirmed. most things i've read suggest delta is not more deadly, just has a higher viral load/higher R0. i'm not sure what to think of the first part either. look at the recent case curve for the netherland: big delta spike among unvaccinated after reopening, then it went down. small increase in hospitalisations proportional to cases, deaths basically stuck near 0. same thing could happen in ontario

https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/1101300/coronavirus-cases-in-netherlands.jpg

that's a good comparison. canada is in a safer and better place than the uk and india, but the same thing happened in those two countries (cases plummetting after delta spikes).

i think if you can prevent thousands getting infected, why not get jabbed, though?

there's evidence that antibodies after getting covid only offers limited protection and not as much as getting jabbed. there is also the unknown of what covid brings in the long term. if that wasn't bad enough, there's also the risk of non-vaccinated causing another variant. as the country opens its borders and more canadians start travelling, the risks also increase. it's not just a local problem/spread issue we're dealing with. with the US having so many cases, it actually puts canada at a higher risk, as that's where most canadians travel to the most.

not to worry, the US isn't letting us in yet (although we're opening the border to them lol, extremely cucked behaviour)

eh call me a cuck but im happy to unilaterally open our borders. covid has given immigration restrictionists a field day

I assume jim just meant that the lack of reciprocity is typical of traditional the virgin Canada vs. the chad USA dynamics

I do think it's odd that I haven't see anyone publicly point out that the reason the US is staying closed is obviously and exclusively racism (against Mexicans), since there's no covid reasoning that makes a lick of sense and all the US statements I saw only referred to opening/closing the borders never a partic border

but yes, as someone who recently decided not to visit my US family because the possibility, however remote, of testing positive on my way back in would mean not being able to come back in until I was negative, it would be personally awesome to get to a point where the only req is vaccination

not to worry, the US isn't letting us in yet (although we're opening the border to them lol, extremely cucked behaviour)

― 《Myst1kOblivi0n》 (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, August 11, 2021 10:26 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

it's weird that this is such a widespread myth in canada. canadians are not banned/disallowed from flying into the US. lots of people at work and friends have been doing it for awhile now. you don't even have to be vaccinated. there's also been lots of people from all over the world who have not stopped flying into the states.

what isn't allowed is travelling there by land.

The flight allowance makes the now unidirectional land border even weirder though

border *closure

not to worry, the US isn't letting us in yet (although we're opening the border to them lol, extremely cucked behaviour)

― 《Myst1kOblivi0n》 (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, August 11, 2021 10:26 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

it's weird that this is such a widespread myth in canada. canadians are not banned/disallowed from flying into the US. lots of people at work and friends have been doing it for awhile now. you don't even have to be vaccinated. there's also been lots of people from all over the world who have not stopped flying into the states.

what isn't allowed is travelling there by land.

― Punster McPunisher, Wednesday, August 11, 2021 12:21 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

oh yes, sorry, im aware of this. just that if i were to go to the united states i would be using the land border (as probably thousands of americans did yesterday entering to BC through peace arch crossing)

Didn't realize there was this discrepancy. Funny to think that I could fly to San Francisco easier than I could drive to Syracuse (although tbh I have no reason to go to either place atm).

yeah i think i may have thought that there were some border restrictions in general at one stage but it was clear last summer that there were tourists from around the world, including the states, in vancouver, so that definitely disabused me of that misapprehension

that's true, jim, there's definitely more canadians that would drive to the states for day or weekend trips probably

God, this had better be true: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-ndp-david-shepherd-deena-hinshaw-jason-kenney-1.6139605

election time https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-call-trudeau-1.6138794

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-election/2021/08/14/conservatives-launch-attack-ad-called-dumb-by-their-own-party-members.html

"The only reason for an election is because Trudeau wants a majority."

Is that supposed to be shocking?

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2021/08/conservative-party-bitterly-derides-upcoming-election-as-big-popularity-contest/

cory doctorow on how canada is on its way to becoming a police state if it passes the worst internet laws in the world:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/08/11/the-canada-variant/#no-canada

C10 iisthankfully dead now that parliament has been dissolved. Of course it may return in some other form.

Canada accepting 20k refugees from Afghanistan seems like an OTM start, although tbh it should have probably been the focus the whole time. Marvelling a bit that even Harper had the foresight to see the pointlessness of the mission and pull out seven years ago.

interesting strategy...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-party-election-platform-1.6142319

Wow

they announced another interesting idea a couple weeks ago:

"Helping newcomers maximize their success by allowing them to work in their field of knowledge will be good for Canada, good for the economy and, most importantly, good for these workers and their families," said O'Toole in a media release.

Canada already has programs that allow skilled workers to speed up their immigration applications if they meet certain requirements, but critics say it's still difficult for many of those workers to immigrate and find work in their fields.

A Conservative government would create a new credential recognition task force to improve that process, the party said today.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-human-rights-agenda-1.6132728

wonder how much of an improvement it would actually be in practice of course.

seems like they are trying very hard not to repeat scheer's mistakes (no platform, shifty anti-gay rhetoric...) still doubt urban voters are going to be receptive to voting for them. Trudeau is trying to wedge them on requiring vaccines to travel by plane/train, which is probably a more urgent issue.

Not sure what to make of this left turn tbh. It is good that those international human rights and labour issues are being talked about at the least.

there are a lot of current CPC stances that would be a lot more credible if they were coupled with explicit repudiations of Harper's record, such as his free trade deals with China and his anti-immigrant dog whistling

Or O'Toole's own stances from a year ago? Wonder if he still plans to find a dollar in savings for every dollar of new spending he's proposing now.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/conservative-leadership-race-candidates-platforms_ca_5f3fd2cdc5b697824f97d994

It’s gonna take a couple of election cycles (if ever) for the CPC to decouple itself from the neo-con/Alt-right turn it took in lockstep with global conservatism. Seems like they’re hearing the ground-level chatter that people miss the Red Tory option, but when the LPC basically occupies that neoliberal/centrist/technocrat ground anyhow, where TF can they go? Weird strategy (“We’re just like the LPC, but Taxes Bad!”)

Weird turn for the Tories. Not sure what I expect from the election. Liberals in power most likely buy unsure of majority or minority

wow OToole privatizing the CBC seems like the perfect angle for the Libs to rile up some boomers

The CBC is out of control and in need of reform. I’ll slash funding for English TV and CBC News Network, and end funding for digital news. Focus should be on CBC Radio and Radio Canada.

Add your name: https://t.co/HA2lG4G59d pic.twitter.com/N3gTtP12fA

— Erin O'Toole (@erinotoole) February 14, 2020

promising to defund in February 2020, he's a visionary

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/canadian-campaign-for-afghan-peace-afghanistan-federal-election-humanitarian-crisis-1.6148969

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid19-vaccine-update-bc-1.6149947

serious business (or just a copy of quebec's policy, really)

Tory support rising: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

I'm actually leaning Liberal atm. Yasir Naqvi is replacing McKenna here; he's a former provincial Attorney General with some legitimate accomplishments - restrictions on police street checks and amendments to the Human Rights Code to include immigration status and social condition as prohibited grounds for discrimination happened during his tenure. The NDP picked an economist who struck me as fairly milquetoast and vague during the nomination race.