Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

don’t know why anybody’s worried about Lollapalooza, check this public health initiative

Quite a warning in Grant Park: “By attending Lollapalooza, you voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19.”

Gates open at 11. #Lollapalooza pic.twitter.com/5k9qAtS0eV

— Jenna Barnes (@Jenna_Barnes) July 29, 2021

This is what was posted in Savannah two weeks ago:

https://i.imgur.com/yrLQgJm.jpg

Even before we get to the actual after effects of Lollapalooza

It was such a spectacle of joy and even just watching clips of it filled me with delight, but it does seem to me that packing 70K people into the Deer District in Milwaukee for game 6 of the finals was probably a bad idea. I mean, yes, outside. Yes, a fair amount of vaccination in the crowd. But close quarters and yelling, yelling, yelling for hours.

Lolla is all that plus partying young people (who are already less likely to be vaxxed and demonstrably irresponsible in the best of circumstances).

It's not so much the outdoors part, it's all the afterparties and shows in crowded indoor clubs and bars that worry me. Not to mention the hotel parties and kids packed 15-20 to a room for three days.

Re: assumption of the risk signs, similar signs are in every stadium everywhere regarding inherent dangers of attending sporting events. It's what prevents you from suing the stadium if you get hit by a baseball. Now, it's a sad day that getting the coronavirus is an inherent risk of going to a music festival, but here we are.

tl;dr = don't go to music festivals.

xp Deer District

was pretty crazy when ABC would cut from the coach being interviewed on the court during a time-out, standing 10 feet away from the interviewer (who was also masked) to 70,000 people outside the arena basically climbing each others backs like the zombies in Z Nation.

Had the pre-shutdown experience this morning of being in a diner with two young junkies in the adjacent booth, nodding off on a Thursday morning and not saying much, one of them sneezing a bunch and telling me (after it took a long while to get his attention) that it was allergies when I asked if he'd been tested recently.

Radio reporting from Lollapalooza just described it as a beautiful summer day, which is a lie. It is pushing 90 and humid as balls. These dummies must really, really want COVID-19.

And then there’s *next* weekend’s big event:

Should Market Days and the Pride Parade require masks and proof of vaccination?

Howard Brown, the city's largest LGBTQ health provider, says yes. But Market Days' organizers say they'll follow city guidelines instead. More on @BlockClubCHI.https://t.co/og7xpGFeGr

— Jake Wittich (@JakeWittich) July 28, 2021

Lightfoot's cronies don't make nearly as much money off of that event though, so she'll get the go ahead to put the kibosh on big gatherings the minute Lolla rolls up.

article on breakthroughs: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/07/anatomy-of-a-vaccine-breakthrough/619562/

Honestly a very promising sign.

I’m reading a lot of anti-COVID vaccine forums, and it’s striking how quickly the posters fold and get the vaccine as soon as it’s mandated by their jobs/colleges/govs. The other posters tell them to go off the grid and live in the woods, but not a lot of takers on that idea.

— Will Sommer (@willsommer) July 29, 2021

I'm confused by the lack of discussion of the people who had covid and have antibodies in this discussion of vaccines. My work started testing us last year when test became available and I tested positive last July. I was surprised because I wasn't feeling any different than usual but I had my blood work done and my doctor confirmed that I had covid. Since my first negative test I have my blood work done every other month and just last week I still have antibodies and my doctor has advised me that getting the vaccine would be my choice but not his recommendation since I had covid. Are people who had covid getting the vaccine?

yes. either the CDC (and equivalent agencies all over the world) or your doctor are alarmingly wrong.

Are people who had covid getting the vaccine?

I had Covid in March 2020, a mild case. when I donated blood Red Cross picked up on my antibodies and they've been studying them ever since, and those antibodies have definitely been in decline. if I didn't get the vaccine, did I have enough antibodies to prevent me from catching covid again? we'll never know.

I would find a new doctor.

anyway, last recommendation I saw was that if you had a positive covid case, especially one with symptoms, you've probably got a good three months worth of protection, so you might not need a vaccine ASAP. at the same time, I don't think it will hurt you to get the vaccine ASAP.

sobering bulletin from a long-standing local band in Bloomington IN:

Some of you may be aware, or have word of a COVID outbreak traced back to a local music event at a venue here in Bloomington last week. The Dynamics are aware of it, because one of our members was likely exposed to folks who have tested positive. We cancelled band practice this week as a precaution. I have just received a message on FB asking me to post this message from someone who has been directly affected by this outbreak. I am doing so, because I think it's a message that needs to be seen.

This is From Paula Patton: "Bob and I tested positive for Covid-19 on Monday. He was at a music event last Tuesday where everyone was unmasked. WE ARE FULLY VACCINATED, so technically that was ok. Other people from the event have posted that they have it and they were also vaccinated. It passed from Bob to me immediately and another friend, neither of us were at this event. I am VIOLENTLY ill, this virus is NO joke!! I may have died from this if not vaccinated, I believe it has kept me from being hospitalized. The vaccine does not mean we can go around maskless anymore. The Delta variant is way more transmissible and now we know that even vaccinated people CAN and WILL spread it. If you haven't gotten your shots, DO IT and wear your mask everywhere! We have to eradicate this f*cking virus, soon! Do not do this to your family, friends, coworkers and acquaintances! If enough people are vaccinated, it may go away."

I thought consult your doctor was the standard practice? My doctor has been treating me for pleurisy which I finally overcame before this pandemic happened, hopefully, a few more test left. He knows my history and blood work ups. He's given me MRI's and I've been on steroids and Zpacks for 2 years. The measures I took to invest in my health at his advice has improved my life drastically. But I should find a new doctor because we had a long discussion about if I should get the vaccines? But my larger question was about natural immunity, is that just not possible?

I don't think so, no. Antibodies provide *some* level of immunity, but the vaccine provides exponentially more.

A recent chronic illness is kind of a buried lede here.

Your question not should people with other illnesses get vaccinated (maybe not, do talk to your doctor, although tbh I’d be surprised).

It was should people who have had covid get vaccinated (yes absolutely unless they have medical issues that make vaccination dangerous, because the immunity conferred by covid is significantly less than what you get from the vaccines we have).

Covid is not a disease you are either “immune to” or “not immune to”. Chickenpox is the classic example of that (“I had it when I was a kid”), and even that is not a binary lifelong immunity.

The delta variant of the coronavirus appears to cause more severe illness than earlier variants and spreads as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal federal health document that argues officials must “acknowledge the war has changed.”

The document is an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention slide presentation, shared within the CDC and obtained by The Washington Post. It captures the struggle of the nation’s top public health agency to persuade the public to embrace vaccination and prevention measures, including mask-wearing, as cases surge across the United States and new research suggests vaccinated people can spread the virus.

The document strikes an urgent note, revealing the agency knows it must revamp its public messaging to emphasize vaccination as the best defense against a variant so contagious that it acts almost like a different novel virus, leaping from target to target more swiftly than Ebola or the common cold.

It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/?itid=hp-top-table-main

Jesus

Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant.

not a smart-ass question, but I saw someone else ask it and I legit do not know the answer. If someone has a viral load similar to an unvaccinated person when they get a breakthrough infection, does that mean their immune system allowed the disease to copy over and over and over again without any significant push back from their immune system? (I could be way the fuck off here and probably am).

like how is it someone with a similar viral load to an unvaccinated person gets much less severe disease than the unvaxxed person? their immune system is better positioned to fight the infection after it replicates a bunch?

meanwhile I got well-meaning friends thinking they know more than scientists and saying eradication (aka Covid-Zero) is still in sight and possible despite the fact that it would (now) take about a 95% vaccination rate to eradicate it in the US, which probably wouldn't have been possible even if we were the most progressive country alive. 75% was a viable goal when *that* was the estimate (and so far we've managed to fuck that one royally).

"why do you think there's no more polio?", one asked. uhh, they found it in wastewater in Manila my last week there, actually!

BREAKING: Six passengers on Royal Caribbean's Adventure of the Seas cruise ship (which I am sailing on) have tested positive for COVID-19. Four are vaccinated, two are unvaccinated children. Passengers have not yet been notified. Story to come.

— Morgan Hines (@MorganEmHines) July 30, 2021

we're really reliving April 2020 huh

Was talking to a colleague of mine yesterday, he's been vaccinated, but I think he only did it because he was worried he might not be able to travel or go to pubs or something. We used to have to wear masks at all times but since Boris had the bright idea of leaving up to the individual, it's left to your discretion, but everybody still wears one, including the aforementioned colleague - though I think that's because he'd be embarrassed not to wear one. However he told me he's never worn a mask once outside of the workplace - he gets the train in every morning - and never in shops even when it was mandatory to wear one. He has family in India and goes there occasionally but has never had the malaria vaccine, which is recommended, because the side effects are bad and he's sure he's not going to get malaria. He's never had the flu vaccine and never will because he doesn't consider himself vulnerable - this despite the fact that he's forever telling us how he's clinically obese and, not so long ago, was actually morbidly obese. He won't be getting any COVID booster jabs because, again, he's not vulnerable and he doesn't like 'putting shit in his body when he doesn't need to', I said have you seen what's in the food you're eating. Oh and he thinks seat belts are a waste of time, except if you're on a motorway, because you're not going to die if you're in a crash when you're doing 30 mph. Polio vaccines are fine though.

xpost well except we have vaccines now and thousands of people aren't dying per day

(in the US, obviously globally is another matter)

this is what is driving me nuts. scientists/experts who used to be in line with each other are diverging on lots of things now , even with the CDC.

This is what I am talking about. This headline is HIGHLY misleading and irresponsible at best. This makes it sound as if vaccinated individuals are as likely to contract and spread COVID as easily as unvaccinated individuals do. This is NOT what the CDC report says. https://t.co/AL14gPEO6N

— Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 (@sailorrooscout) July 30, 2021

not a smart-ass question, but I saw someone else ask it and I legit do not know the answer. If someone has a viral load similar to an unvaccinated person when they get a breakthrough infection, does that mean their immune system allowed the disease to copy over and over and over again without any significant push back from their immune system? (I could be way the fuck off here and probably am).

like how is it someone with a similar viral load to an unvaccinated person gets much less severe disease than the unvaxxed person? their immune system is better positioned to fight the infection after it replicates a bunch?

This is a great question! Here is what I've seen virus people say about it. The virus enters your body by inhalation. So it's sitting there in your nose, multiplying. But you don't get really sick from having virus in your nose, you get really sick from having virus inhabiting your lungs. The vaccines really don't let the virus take hold in your lungs but (it now seems) it's possible in some cases that the virus establishes a population in our nose -- which means you'll test positive, and also means you may be able to breathe virus ONTO people -- without making you seriously ill.

That said, there seems little controversy about the fact that, while this CAN happen if you're vaccinated, it's a lot LESS likely to happen if you're vaccinated.

It seems very much like nobody knows anything for sure and that everybody is regularly updating what they think they know based upon what other people think they know and that there's always a set of seemingly reputable people who think they know something that contradicts what the other people think they know. And on top of it all, everybody has seemingly forgotten how to clearly communicate what they think they know and has to constantly backtrack and clarify and adjust their message for different audiences. And yes, it's absolutely maddening.

this is what is driving me nuts. scientists/experts who used to be in line with each other are diverging on lots of things now , even with the CDC.

I don't think that tweet is an example of scientists "diverging." That New York Times tweet is indeed extremely misleading and does not reflect anything I've heard any scientists say. The point is:

1. Vaccinated people are very much less likely to get infected with COVID that non-vaccinated people
2. If a vaccinated person DOES get infected, their likelihood of transmitting virus is probably not very different from that of a non-vaccinated infected person.

But because of 1, it is not at all true that the disease is "spread by vaccinated people as easily as the unvaccinated."

1. seems to be less true as time goes by. But I guess it depends upon which expert you listen to. Shrug!

This is very irresponsible messaging. There is NO way vaccinated people are as infectious as the unvaccinated.

— Muge Cevik (@mugecevik) July 30, 2021

like this is a virologist, not "Eric Feigl-Ding".

Kathleen Neuzil, vaccine expert cited in the CNN article yesterday leaking the internal presentation, said this:

"“We need to shift toward preventing serious disease, disability & medical consequences, & not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose"

this is kind of correct now, isn't it? lockdowns will slow down infection, and help preventing a run on hospitals, but with the ease of spread, it's just going to delay things (which isn't to say it shouldn't be done, but it can't be the only strategy, and the goal can't be COVID Zero anymore).

Masks obviously too but even masked people and the people around them will get sick (just not as often).

isn't to say that cases don't matter, but kind of like caek said upthread, I think we're all just likely to catch this shit at some point, and those of us who are vaccinated probably will wind up unscathed. those of us who aren't vaccinated, well....it's like roulette.

i need to lie down.

So here's the decision I'm struggling with today: I really miss swimming, and I had just decided that I was going to go ahead and join a gym for the next year and only use the pool. I'm vaccinated, I'm in a highly vaccinated city, and I figured I'd keep my mask on except when I was in the pool or the shower. It didn't seem like a major risk. Now I'm reconsidering in light of that article and the recommendation to keep masks on in public settings indoors.

But it also seems like this will be with us for a long time, I'm still being careful in every other way, and the idea of another year with no swimming is pretty depressing. Do you guys think I would be wrong/stupid to join the gym anyway?

What I've been able to piece together from the kaleidoscope of information is that vaccinated people are actually becoming infected with increasing frequency but that it's generally low-grade or symptomless and, as such, is pooh-poohed as nothing to really concern ourselves with. Except for that whole occasional 'long COVID' thing, which has me inclined to still do everything in my power to avoid catching even a mild case. Except that cases are definitely on the rise and life is returning to normal in many respects whether we want it to or not so how much agency do we even have in this situation anyway.

I do not, Lily. A couple days ago I decided, FUCK these unjabbed fuckwits, I won't lock down for their sake. I'll be as careful as ever, have never stopped masking, but I'm not putting my life on hold again.

I'm also single and live alone. You do you!

Amazon mis-delivered my fucking K95 masks THEY ARE TRYING TO KILL ME

I don't think you'd be wrong/stupid for going swimming either. For what it's worth, myself and my partner are both reasonably cautious and haven't been out much, but one thing we have done recently is go swimming a few times in the local public pool, which is open but with a lot of restrictions (on numbers - you have to book a slot/lane in advance, have to arrive changed already under one's clothes to minimise time in changing rooms, no shower use, allocated lockers etc). I definitely feel slightly nervous if it is busy and am prepared to bail out and head home if necessary, but at this point I feel that I can't wait forever to do the handful of wee things that are important to me/my life/my mental and physical health, as long as I do them with what I think to be suitable caution and consideration.

fwiw I also would like to start going swimming again, I was going twice a week before covid but I think I'm leaving it til September (or at least, reconsidering in September)

i wouldn't say *don't* go swimming (for example), but if you're somewhere where cases are high/surging then one option is to wait until this wave is over, which will be a month or two. any activity is less dangerous if the ambient case rate where you live is back to where it was in may/june.

yeah i think that's kind of the thing, transmission levels

11 bus goes straight up Madison to the lake, Lily, or you can walk a different route each time for further exercise / vitamin D time / variety

seems to be less true as time goes by. But I guess it depends upon which expert you listen to. Shrug!

we JUST got the vaccines, and the virus itself is pretty novel iirc. New data comes in every day, so there’s still a lot of scope for real experts to interpret it differently

New data comes in every day

yup, good science requires good data and the data gathering on covid and the vaccines is confined to such a short time period that much of the expert advice consists of highly-educated guesswork based on a very limited set of data. there's no time for the more rigorous science of "let's wait on this until we can form a solid consensus". that won't arrive until years from now.

the problem is the masses want instagratification.

like with hurricane forecasting, a few years ago, someone I know "come on, we have to get this forecast right, millions of lives are at stake", and I had to reply "you can't expect a hurricane landfall forecast within 25 miles fucking THREE OR FOUR DAYS PRIOR TO LANDFALL - but the 'millions of people' *have* been warned that where they live is at risk of possible landfall and given plenty of time to fucking evacuate if they need to. quit acting as if everybody is going to die if the NHC doesn't tell you the GPS coordinates for where the storm is going to hit."