Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866546/infectious-disease-specialist-discusses-whether-the-u-s-is-over-testing-for-covi

Early in the pandemic, there were not enough coronavirus tests to keep track of the disease. Now the U.S. might be facing something like the opposite problem. Dr. Monica Gandhi argues that too many vaccinated people are getting tested and finding out they have a breakthrough infection even if they don't have any symptoms. Dr. Gandhi studies infectious diseases at the University of California San Francisco and joins us to explain.

Dr. goes on to say, yeah, people are testing positive despite viral loads too small to really spread. But then she is asked about the Delta variant and says:

I think the delta variant is a different beast. I think that it is something that has a higher viral load, which is why we are seeing now more symptomatic breakthroughs in people who are vaccinated - not that they're severe breakthroughs. It's still true that 99.6% of people in the hospital right now with SARS-CoV-2 in our country are unvaccinated. But there are more symptomatic breakthroughs. You're all hearing this - more of a mild cold, or even can feel like you have a flu. We need to know if those people can transmit. It's likely that they can, though, because there is higher viral loads with the delta variant - so another reason why viral load is incredibly important now when we discuss breakthroughs at this point with the delta variant.

So what the fuck was the point of the initial piece?

i know four friends with breakthroughs now.

really sad to see the vaccines don't work.

getting unvaccinated as we speak

I would get unvaccinated but I'm really loving this 5G

we have a billboard here that says "The Covid-19 Vaccine: It's Up To You". it means to say "it's up to us to end the pandemic" but instead comes off like "get the shot or not, whatever"

― frogbs, Monday, July 26, 2021 11:22 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Looked into this and found an article about the campaign:

That night Pereira sent a slide deck of the concept to campaign coordinators at the Ad Council. They quickly signed off on the idea, though some were initially incredulous that such a deferential tagline could be the pillar of an energetic public education campaign. “ ‘It’s Up to You’?” Bridgeland of the Covid Collaborative remembers thinking. It was so different from, say, the rousing spirit of the campaign to build volunteerism after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. “What about, ‘It’s Up to Us’? ... We need a greater sense of we.” But he was persuaded by the research showing that wasn’t how to talk to an atomized, mistrustful America.

Pereira’s team began drafting scripts and scenarios for how “It’s Up to You” could be customized for different audiences. Apaliski designed a logo in the shape of an adhesive bandage with “It’s Up to You” in the center. Much of the creative material and underlying research would be open-source on the Ad Council site, meant to be borrowed and co-branded by allies in the education effort. “The only way to tackle a problem this big is to create something almost like the DNA of a campaign that we can give to the entire marketing and publishing and tech ecosystem and say, ‘Go do it,’ ” Pereira says. “If we go the traditional route” of a top-down, one-agency campaign, “we are not going to be able to go as deep and as fast as we want.”

As a final check that the slogan would resonate with hesitaters — and that they wouldn’t interpret “It’s Up to You” as “It’s Optional” — Nunez tested it in a survey squeezed between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. The message clicked. “Everyone was thrilled,” Nunez says, “because we didn’t have much more time to come up with something else.”

sad lol

I wish I could get unvaccinated so that I can get revaccinated and win an empanada or a gift card or lottery ticket. I feel ripped off that when I got vaccinated all I got was likely protection against a deadly disease for me and my loved ones.

I know people who said there was coffee and donuts at their vaxx place and I'm like, why did I even bother?

at Cabaret Lido they give you a free facesitting with your shot

When my daughter got her first shot she could I guess get a free Krispy Kreme donut, but then I heard that anyone could get a free donut, vaxxed or not, and I was, like, why bother?

Just in the last week I've seen a noticeable increase in mass wearing here.

Three weeks after restrictions lifted here, cases in Seattle have increased 130%, and twenty separate restaurants were identified yesterday as breakthrough infection sites (ie vaccinated ppl catching it). Local health depts covering 58% of Washington State's population formally recommended people individually going back to indoor masking, in lieu of being able to mandate.

CDC expected to recommend masks for everyone in K-12, regardless of vaccination status, and reverse indoor mask policy for COVID hot spots. I know I'm a minority here on this opinion but, jesus, it's almost as if those numbnuts shouldn't have jumped the gun on telling everyone to rip them off in the first place.

in fairness, they did establish at the time that masks could come back if conditions changed. people heard it as a permanent edict though.

xpost Nah, I'm right there with you. I thought it was grossly irresponsible at the time and well (gestures wildly at increasing number of people falling ill)

Of course people thought it meant 'masks off forever!'. Of course unvaccinated people figured that it applied to them, as well. People are primed to hear what they want to hear after a year and a half of this shit. Which is why people in a position of authority need to err on the side of caution when issuing guidance.

^^^^ OL otm. I don't think it's fair to blame the average vaccinated Joe for going unmasked when that was largely the message being sent and reinforced. I'm sorry that it's hard for them, but they need to think how the messaging is going to land.

thing is, though, unless everybody upgrades to K95 or N95 masks, it's not going to put a significant dent in Delta due to the 1000x increased viral load and the rate of transmission right now. which isn't to say cloth or surgical masks aren't effective, but cloth are about 50% effective, surgical about 60%, and K95/N95 masks about 95%. i'm going back to the latter.

i'm not saying don't do it, because it will offer personal protection and to the people around you, just saying things may not have turned out much differently with Delta if the mask guidance had stayed in place the whole time.

I guess?

But to me, the concern is not so much which type of masks (though they do undoubtedly make a difference), rather that the "masks off" recommendation gave cover for the vaccination averse to waltz around with no mask at all.

I will say that when I wear a mask (which I just did earlier today, getting my haircut, as did the haircutters) it's a KN95, otherwise I sort of feel like "why am I bothering?"

That makes sense, and I get it.

I'm just not sure why folks are so ready to frame the CDC recommendations through the lens of obedient mask wearers. That's not the concern! It's the 40% of this country that are actively and vocally anti-mask and/or anti-vaccination being given free cover to waltz around completely maskless.

Yeah, for much of the past year it felt like, "think of others, wear a mask." Now it's more like, "thanks to others, wear a mask."

Having just been to the supermarket and chemists I can report that mask wearing is definitely in decline. I'd say the majority of men under 50 aren't wearing masks anymore (because they're so hard and their balls are so big) - also, I've never really understood why people with children have pretty much never worn masks. The staff in Morrisons seem to have given up on masks too.

So weird, like I said, anecdotally the total opposite here. Then again, I've always figured those already vaxxed are also likely the ones to remask, and we live in a heavily vaxxed area.

I can report I am in the 1% of people at my gym wearing a mask (i.e. I see someone else once a week wearing a mask).

this is why I've stopped going to yoga class for the time being

I get it. I can't bring myself to do that, especially since I'm going into work 3 days/wk now.

Starting Monday I'm back in the office full time, every day. As far as I know everyone in our open office area is vaccinated, but not one of them is wearing a mask. Even if I wear a mask every day, I'm worried about how helpful it will be if no one I spend time with day after day will be wearing one.

I'm apparently back in the office next week. I'll be wearing a mask even if everyone else abstains. Particularly since there's no vaccine mandate at my place of work. Who knows how effective it'll be. If cases skyrocket again, I might tell 'em where they can stick their job because I don't trust them to handle it responsibly.

Although I'm more concerned about being on the train two hours a fucking day.

As much as I hate contributing to more climate change, as long as my son is still unvaccinated the train is a big no from me and I'm back to driving.

yesterday my employer announced plans to reopen in september were postponed until further notice

a non-circumstantial biologically motivated argument (i.e. better than my numerology looking at waves) that this is going to be a short, sharp burst:

Excellent pictorial explanation of what a "shorter serial interval" (almost certainly true for Delta in my view) means for delta from @wanderer_jasnah. https://t.co/f7GkzdKs4w

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) July 27, 2021

Makes sense, and sucks that you have to make a choice around it.

also, I've never really understood why people with children have pretty much never worn masks

Have consistently, from March 2020 til now, seen families with masked kids and unmasked parents.

do to jvc

A masked kid is a rarity where I am.

and that’s the anecdotal conga

Returned from epic trip to island off the Maine coast. Masks in decline but still quite in use, particularly in Western Mass, where we stopped on the way up and way back so I could do some serious book shopping.

On the island, of course, no one wore masks... except in the general store, where nearly everyone was masked up while doing their shopping.

do to jvc

thanks autocorrect

ha, wasn't sure if you were blaming me for something ("due to jvc") or confirming the same thing ("do too jvc")

Masks coming back in Vegas. Masks back in Savannah. Masks back in Provincetown. Disney mask situation ... evolving. Name a vacation destination and I can probably tell you which direction this is going in.

Incidentally, here's part of the Savannah mayor's fed-up statement:

"I know the question will come - are we effectively punishing those who did the right thing and took the vaccine? And the answer is yes, we probably are," Mayor Johnson said. "The minority is being punished because of the inaction of the majority. We have the ability to determine our own fate, our own destiny, by doing what we can to improve our vaccination rates. As for me, the short and long-term health effects associated with COVID-19 are too high, so I chose vaccination. And I hope you will, too."

Scrolling through some of the Illinois and Chicago COVID threads about the new CDC guidelines this morning, I find it not at all comforting to see that approximately 80% of the people commenting are absolutely furious about even the implication that they might be asked to wear a mask indoors again. Seems good.

People are done with that shit. Ironically, this might help more people get vaccinated or get authorities and businesses to mandate vaccines, which would be good.

I mean, I get it. It is an absolute shame we are heading back in this direction because dumbfuck Americans prefer to take their medical advice from their dumbest cousin's Facebook feed, but it doesn't fill me with confidence to see all the people responding to this news with, "not going to wear one", "come make me", "I refuse to wear a mask again", etc etc.

Dane County is recommending masks indoors again, although our vax rate is 70%. I'm back at the office and no one has been wearing masks, no word from the company yet on anything (apparently employee vax rate is like 97%).

I think that for people like me for whom "wear a mask when you go in the store" just doesn't feel like a big deal, it is a challenge, but a challenge I really have to be serious about, to internalize the fact that for many other people, not just MAGA-motivated reasoners -- hell, maybe *most* other people -- it is truly a burden.

definitely saw more masks around town after last night's news from CDC came out. I'm working on ordering K95s for when I do venture out and for my folks. we'd been using them but got lazy and went back to surgical.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/britain-covid-cases-plummet-mystery/2021/07/28/4fa3a734-ef7c-11eb-81b2-9b7061a582d8_story.html

Possible explanation for what seems to be a pretty short sharp wave:

Excellent pictorial explanation of what a "shorter serial interval" (almost certainly true for Delta in my view) means for delta from @wanderer_jasnah. https://t.co/f7GkzdKs4w

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) July 27, 2021

DeSantis however has forbid local officials from reinstituting mask mandates and won't issue a state-wide one himself, so I don't know that widespread adoption is coming back.

the media isn't really helping with its frequent watering down of what the CDC said. the CDC said 'some' vaccinated people might be able to spread the virus, even though rare, as some tests showed that a few infected vaccinated had similar viral loads in their nose to unvaccinated, whereas with Alpha, usually just about every infected breakthrough case had a much lower viral load. So they're bringing back the masks to account for this still-remote but growing possibility - however, the media reported it as "vaccinated people can spread the virus" as if every breakthrough case will carry this risk, which isn't what she said. Likewise, reporting it as a reversal, an admission that 'we got it wrong' when in reality they always left open the possibility that this mask guideline would return if cases spiked again. It's unfair to expect the policy to remain static without regard to circumstances.

unfortunately, the "why get the vaccine?" crowd is back and full-throated. I've already seen the "what's the point of getting a shot if I still have to mask?" as if this question hasn't been answered to death for 8 months. at this point, though....it makes sense why they're bringing back the mandate and we can't base every strategy on "how are the stupid people going to interpret this?". i just hope this doesn't depress vaccine turnout further, as it was starting to upswing late last week.

xpost read that yesterday, and it was really helpful in understanding. but soooooooooooo many people are skeptical right now of the UK's decline being a reflection of them actually peaking. not just your wingnuts. some are convinced the UK is manipulating the data based on pure circumstantial bullshit ("they stopped testing"), but the infection rate has also been on the decline since 7/22, which doesn't support that.

I'm not sure how to separate some of the more legitimate concerns from the "I will frame every bit of positive COVID news as a bad thing because I am Eeyore" concerns, as some of them are coming from actual math dudes or healthcare workers.