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A federalism where the only real federal superstructure is the military and intelligence community... now that's possible.
Sort of the Grover Norquist ideal, right? To the extent there is a coherent Republican strategy right now (and I'm not saying it's very coherent), I think that's it. Seize more-or-less unshakable control of the federal govt, and then strip it down, dismantle the regulatory state, theoretically leave things like environmental regulation up to the states, but then of course use federal leverage to penalize California/NY/anyone who steps out of line.
It is definitely among the possible scenarios.
That’s not unlikely, but basically lose-lose for California in particular considering climate change is one of the main points of contention, CA is getting some of the worst effects of it, CA also pays more than its share of taxes, and the US military has been (and maybe still is) the single organization with the largest carbon footprint.