is New York City dead?

I don't get this part at all -

The first round of ranked-choice voting analysis will eliminate the bottom candidate, recount votes accordingly, then continue until there is a winner with 50% of the vote. The process will kick off next Tuesday, June 29, and will include only in-person votes.

Absentee ballots will be counted a week later, on July 6, and the process could recur the week of July 12 if uncounted or controversial ballots remain.

How can they do the ranked-choice stuff before they count the absentee ballots? Won't the absentee ballots change the order of the rankings?

not enough outstanding ballots to alter the bottom quartile

I'm relieved to see Cornegy (probably?) out of range for Brooklyn Borough Pres, I must say.

I guess I live in a Jimmy Van Bramer bubble, had not idea he'd be so decimated for Queens Borough Pres.

A certain amount of work went into this:

https://www.vulture.com/2021/06/nyc-mayors-race-who-every-nyc-tv-character-would-vote-for.html

immediate quibble: tom from succession is definitely a registered republican

don’t really understand why this is such a long process. why wait a week to analyze in-person votes, which are presumably all scanned and easily to work with?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-local-correspondents/new-york-citys-mayoral-election-didnt-meet-the-moment

All other issues shrank in the face of the public-safety debate. Little time was given to discussion of public health, for instance, despite a pandemic that is still infecting hundreds of New Yorkers a day, or climate change, despite how little has been done to protect the city since Hurricane Sandy, in 2012. Most of the candidates’ campaign platforms contained detailed, serious policy plans on a range of issues, including housing, education, and economic development, and most of the candidates could discuss those details competently in public. But few of these details filtered out to voters. On Sunday, two days before primary day, Garcia, a former sanitation commissioner who made climate resilience a centerpiece of her campaign, shook hands with voters outside Zabar’s, on the Upper West Side, where one would expect to find many voters open to her pragmatic, get-stuff-done attitude. “A bunch of people tell her they’re voting for her,” Politico’s Erin Durkin tweeted from the scene, “though one woman vocally noted she’s for @ericadamsfornyc ‘because he’s a vegan and that’s the #1 thing you can do to save the planet.’ ”

it was an oddly muted and sometimes divorced-from-reality-feeling election/campaign process. in particular it felt like everyone was weirdly afraid of offending any Democrats currently in power. surely someone could have made hay out of how little BdB has accomplished in two tersm, or how much Cuomo has screwed the city under his watch...? i guess these are partly just "incumbent party problems" but in general the conversations were so vague or focused on very specific issues rather than an overall picture of what the city should be like.

TIL that Curtis Sliwa has 15 cats.

I had my mayoral choices ranked but I didn't realize I'd have to rank city council, comptroller and borough prez until my coworker mentioned it. I spent at least an hour deciding my ranking of the many City Council District 26 candidates. I ranked as # 1the person who came to my door twice--and he was ahead at the beginning of election night but now he is being overtaken by my #2. I think Jumane Williams had the advantage in being an incumbent for Queenz prez (and he also got a lot of the union endorsements) -- but I wasn't expecting Elizabeth Crowley to do so well.

If it's Adams we are in for a lot of random crazy politics in the next few years. At least the tabloids will have something to do. Adams says or does something ridiculous every day -- it's like having our own mini Trump for the city. My union endorsed him -- so I guess they are hoping that he will fund city agencies.

District 26 was insane. A few of them came to my door. A few of them tried to stop me at the farmer's market. My wife contacted Julie Won, Amit Bagga and Haile Kim and gave them tours of Doughboy Park and Windmuller Playground to show them what a mess they are, Doughboy's extensive construction and dirt piles, Windmullers lack of any kinds of gates on the playground, rubber tiles under the playground structures installed upside down = slippery, and of course our great water feature, which was knocked over by a park truck so now is just a geyser spraying out of the ground.

I voted for, in this order: Won, Bagga, Haile Kim, Julia Forman and Jesse Laymon.

I see Won just overtook Bagga. I assumed Bagga would win and is probably a better "politician" than Won and figured it didn't hurt to put her first. Denise Keehan-Smith was a turn-off by going on and on about how many generations her family's been in Woodside and how important it is that she was born here. It's one of the most immigrant-heavy diverse places in american, who cares if you were born here! Emily Sharpe meanwhile put up actual billboards and barely made a dent.

A friend who's dealt with Woodside on the Move said Brent O'Leary was no good. I don't know the full story, I still give them money.

You mean Richards for Borough Pres. Agreed about Crowley but surprised about JVB. My wife said "we definitely live in the Jimmy Van Bramer bubble"! In Sunnyside/Woodside he seems like such a big player but obviously he doesn't have the recognition outside of District 26.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgwHpxq-Jfw

eric adams to vanity fair on monday:

What’s the best concert you’ve ever been to?

Curtis Mayfield at the Wingate Concert Series. At that concert there was a rainstorm and the lights fell on Curtis Mayfield and they actually paralyzed him at that concert. He died a few years ago, but it was an amazing concert before that happened. Just so unfortunate.

Hi

NYC MAYOR RANKED CHOICE RESULTS ARE UP! (only early + in-person votes, no absentees yet)

Final Round:
Eric Adams 51.9%
Kathryn Garcia 48.9%

This is a real race folks. The uncounted absentee ballots have the potential to put Garcia over the top.

— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) June 29, 2021

I still don't get how that makes sense. Don't they need to add the absentee ballots in first so they can determine the order candidates get eliminated in?

Also there’s a typo. It’s adams 51.1.

Or is it like "that's what the results would be without absentee ballots - and the absentees are enough to change things, so now we re-do the whole ranked-choice count"?

You can run the rounds with the votes you have. This is a hypothetical final round. Wiley could still win in principle. Point is it’s close.

Yes xp

ahh, ok - "What will happen on Tuesday is essentially an exercise: It will show only who would win based on votes that have already been tallied — that is, who would win if, hypothetically, there were no absentee ballots. Later, after absentee ballots have been counted, the board will take the new total that includes them and run a new set of elimination rounds — the real ones, for the final result."

The gap should tighten but that’s a big gap.

looks like when it gets down to 3, Garcia has 236146 votes (29.8%), Wiley 232340 (29.3%)

you can go through the steps here (although it skips some late?)

https://web.enrboenyc.us/rcv/index.html

Here it is without typos and with an explanation

*Preliminary, in-person only* RCV results! Eric Adams hold on, but Kathryn Garcia narrows the gap significantly.
16,000 vote gap in the end, but 125,000 absentee votes have yet to be factored in. https://t.co/Cqrefe4OgY pic.twitter.com/MduxoiWgga

— Jeff Coltin (@JCColtin) June 29, 2021

They do. This is basically just for funsies and I have no idea why they’re reporting it.

— Daniel Festa (@_danfesta) June 29, 2021

explain the world in one tweet

What’s the best concert you’ve ever been to?

Curtis Mayfield at the Wingate Concert Series. At that concert there was a rainstorm and the lights fell on Curtis Mayfield and they actually paralyzed him at that concert. He died a few years ago, but it was an amazing concert before that happened. Just so unfortunate.

― adam, Friday, June 25, 2021 8:01 AM (four days ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah I saw this too. Pretty deranged stuff.

Go Go Garcia

Adams claiming the results look suspicious, sounding like another New Yorker I remember

Huh. I don't remember if I ranked Garcia. That may have been a mistake.

Tabulating the incomplete rankings when absentee ballots are not yet out is just a recipe for provoking more confusion and outrage when late mail ballots skew progressive, as they have done to a huge degree in Seattle for years. It allows headlines about a “comeback” in the days after Election Day but it’s just an artifact of which votes are counted when.

The ranking complicates this logic, but if the 16000 vote gap were in a two-way race the person trailing would need 70,500 of 125k (56%) of outstanding ballots, which is within the realm of possibility. So whoever this fucker is could still lose.

Remember six months ago when we were all doing this for individual counties in Pennsylvania, good times

I can't do the math but I wonder if there's any chance the absentee ballots could put Wiley back ahead of Garcia.

*supposedly* the districts featured heavily in the absentee ballots lean garcia, but who knows. (not sure about wiley tho.) and yeah releasing results piecemeal like this is absurd

also why the fuck does this take so long? it's a million votes; entire european countries count this shit in a matter of hours, not weeks

Generically the issue in the US is late postal votes. In New York specifically the problem is that the boe is a patronage mill of people who get out of bed at like 2 in the afternoon and can’t count to 100.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/nyregion/nyc-voting-election-board.html

absentee ballots weren't even due until today (as long as they were postmarked by election day)

It’s always great when “bungling” is in the headline

Lmao

The Board of Elections appears to h ave taken down its ranked-choice tabulations from earlier today pic.twitter.com/xBjOuK3mhh

— Dana Rubinstein (@danarubinstein) June 30, 2021

A lot of people have been blowing the whistle on NY's election administration for years, but this is the most botched election results reporting by an official agency I've ever seen in the U.S.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 30, 2021

We are aware there is a discrepancy in the unofficial RCV round by round elimination report. We are working with our RCV technical staff to identify where the discrepancy occurred. We ask the public, elected officials and candidates to have patience.

— NYC Board of Elections (@BOENYC) June 29, 2021

What was wrong with the old style of voting, like where everyone gets one vote

Lots of things rly

pee after sex or you’ll get an rcv

— vacation ember 🐺 (@embernic) June 29, 2021

What was wrong with the old style of voting, like where everyone gets one vote

Here's a treat of a story about being an NYC poll worker:

Oh boy. Gonna break my twitter silence for a hot minute to talk about this election. I was a poll worker at a site that will remain nameless because I'd like to be allowed to do it again. Buckle up, buttercups, we're on an express elevator to hell, going down... https://t.co/t4IJRpHvvU

— every cop is a policy failure (@Dr_Memory) July 1, 2021

oh god.

made it about 10 tweets through that thread before closing my laptop in anger

I honestly don't understand the commotion about RCV. I thought it was obvious and easy to navigate. Yes I know everyone says it will be harder for "the elderly" which I'm sure that's true for some but there are mentally alert elderly people too. What I *do* know is that elected officials who had been in office for multiple terms and had budgets for community outreach DIDN'T DO COMMUNITY EDUCATION early enough, probably because some of them were trying to stop it from happening.

oof

Eric Adams: 50.5

Kathryn Garcia: 49.5

--Fin--https://t.co/qGzrF0xeVf

— David Freedlander (@freedlander) July 6, 2021

Looks like Wiley's votes went 2-to-1 to Garcia, but still wasn't enough.