SB 51: the California politics thread

Yeah but the upkeep on the castle has gotta be killer

The Palo Alto house needs a new dishwasher, so it balances out.

This appears to be a deliberate campaign strategy, and not an act of vandalism, fwiw. pic.twitter.com/n1MHOjwzRO

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) May 3, 2021

“The coverage yesterday was all about the bear,” bemoans @BeastJohnCox, who brought the bear. Says focus should be on issues making California “unlivable and dangerous.”

— Guy Marzorati (@GuyMarzorati) May 5, 2021

Cox is in the Bay Area today, but sent the bear home... it was stealing all his thunder.

my homie is running for gov lol

It's gonna be a clown car of candidates, and if voters go with the recall, whomever gets a the most votes becomes governor (as opposed to a majority). The whole thing is set up really badly.

Hugely important and sobering story

Current and former public health officials say Newsom has entrusted the essential work of government to private-sector health and tech allies, hurting the ability of the state and local health departments to respond to the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/sPUIdsky6A

— Miriam Pawel (@miriampawel) May 6, 2021

relative to the alternatives he's good, but he's a really bad governor!

don't elect shitty mayors to be governor, they'll just be shitty mayor governors

caek u a citizen yet

no, one the fence tbqfh and there's no rush

*on

but think of all the delicious voting you could be doing

(also would need a few nights with more than four hours sleep uninterrupted by my terrible children to pass the citizenship test, which i'm not getting any time soon)

this seems correct (both about her aim, which is not to win but to grift, and the possibility that "trump voters and no one else" ends up being enough to be the winner of the plurality in a clown car field with no democrats)

I don’t think it’s this clever. It’s not really a campaign to become governor, it’s a campaign to become a conservative political celebrity. https://t.co/YP4x3WK3up

— Josh Barro (@jbarro) May 6, 2021

don't elect shitty mayors to be governor, they'll just be shitty mayor governors

― Clara Lemlich stan account (silby), Thursday, May 6, 2021 10:43 AM (yesterday)

Jerry Brown was a less shitty governor than he was mayor, but then he'd already been governor before he'd been mayor? Idk, I feel like being Governor during Covid is a structurally no-win situation. Kinda like being mayor of Oakland.

Story of the day, really.

https://theintercept.com/2021/05/07/california-fires-chico-housing-real-estate/

The nation's most populous state lost more than 180,000 people between January 2020 and January 2021, a decline of 0.46 percent... this was the first time California experienced an actual annual drop since the state began recording such data in 1900.

Opponents of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is facing a recall election, are sure to use the historic decline as proof of California's woes.

They talk about this like it's a bad thing. We have forty million people and not enough water... .46% is a statistical blip, we need more people to leave

🤔

i will escape one day

wtf!?

Anyone following Newsom's plan to send $8b in stimulus payments to 2/3rds of Californians needs to understand he's essentially required to send money back to taxpayers due to a 1979 ballot measure mandating that real per person state government spending must be under 1979 levels https://t.co/WIfNAAiRg8

— Liam Dillon (@dillonliam) May 10, 2021

the upside (downside) of having your state income tax base dominated by high net worth tech people who get paid in stocks is that when the stock market does really well (badly) you have a ton of (no) money. this year we have more. touch luck for cities that depend on sales tax, but congrats to the state i guess?

and what is this proposition 4?! i have never heard of this! and newsom is now claiming he is obliged to send $600 to every adult earning under $75k. haha!

Angered by local and state officials’ efforts to replace the dollars lost to the 1978 tax cut he crafted with anti-tax crusader Howard Jarvis, Gann returned the following year with Proposition 4, a ballot measure to limit government spending.

“Let government trim their sails and get rid of the fat,” Gann said in an Aug. 15, 1979, profile in The Times. “We’re picking up where 13 left off!”

Voters resoundingly agreed that November — in part, perhaps, because Gann’s ballot measure also required a tax rebate when revenues outpaced spending on taxpayer-funded programs. The provision has been triggered only once in the law’s 42-year history, resulting in a $1.1-billion rebate in 1987.

Until this month, that is.

Newsom administration officials say a still-growing tax windfall has spilled over the so-called “Gann limit” on state spending. In January, the spillover was estimated at $102 million over a two-year period. This week, Newsom will announce the excess cash that can’t be spent under regular budget rules is an astounding $16 billion.

using a jarvis measure to redistribute wealth to the bottom 2/3 in a recall year is extremely funny. fair play.

congratulations to the people making money out of this i guess?

Caitlyn Jenner's been running for governor for a month and has done two (2) interviews and no public events - ie, stuff where she could meet voters and take more questions. @JeremyBWhite @cmarinucci's stuff is holding up, as usual https://t.co/4a17MnyBjV

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) May 20, 2021

. @Caitlyn_Jenner cancels on the Ruthless pod which @HolmesJosh likens to no-showing on Meet the Press for Rs

“You don’t unprofessionally let people know that you can’t make it unless you are a completely unorganized shitshow that is a scam-campaign from the very beginning” pic.twitter.com/NEghqBmtEB

— Dave Catanese (@davecatanese) May 20, 2021

These stats are so eyebrow-raising that I would assume they were a data error expect for extreme drought in this region. Sierra Nevada vegetation flammability now appears to be at *all-time* record levels...not just for calendar date, but for any time of year. #CAwx #CAfire https://t.co/GFotZImH1G

— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) June 5, 2021

Good luck down there.

Apologies. Turns out one a scale of one to bad we’re at a 9 not a 10

Correction to give more accurate context: vegetation dryness & flammability metrics (1000hr fuel moisture & ERC, respectively) are indeed exceeding record levels for *calendar* date over most of Sierra Nevada, but *not* records for *any date.* (Phew!) (1/4) #CAwx #CAfire pic.twitter.com/LI222kkbdl

— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) June 7, 2021

this incredibly damaging feedback loop is our best hope tbh

Self-destructiveness of NIMBYs is under-reported, IMO.

They want to keep Prop 13, which ensures steady deterioration of local infrastructure/government services; but they ALSO don't want more homes, which pay modern property taxes and are the only bulwark against bankruptcy. https://t.co/UMh1CK0sWq

— (((Matthew Lewis))) has some Shoup for you (@mateosfo) June 25, 2021

there are plenty of other problematic things about East CoCo County

you might know more actual statistics than me, caek, but I recall that the area in question was one of the prime destinations for the white flight of the 60s - 80s. The 24/980 freeway that tore through neighborhoods in Oakland (where a lot of the white flight was from) was designed to service East Contra Costa County. Then, the gentrification and the subprime mortgage crisis led to a significant number of black Oakland residents (and other POC) moving from Oakland to cheaper places like ... East Contra Costa County.

I don’t know anything about that location. My point is that restrictive planning rules and the structure of property taxes miiight eventually do enough harm to nimbys and prop 13 fans (along with the rest of us) that the situation might change before. Perhaps before we all burn to death.

So in the next couple days?

all I'm saying is that racism is involved as well ... in the case of Eastern Contra Costa County

other things that might happen before say, repealing Prop 13 and building higher density housing and lord forbid affordable housing: more stringent building and fire codes imposed about vegetation management and sprinklering of buildings in areas at risk of burning in a fire. This was the result of the Oakland Hills Fire in the early 90s. It is one of the only instances of the City of Oakland imposing a greater regulatory burden on rich (mostly) white people than on the flatlanders who tend to be lower income and proportionally more black and POC

Newsom recall poll (Likely voters)

51% Recall
40% Retain

SurveyUSA / August 2-4 / n=613https://t.co/oyUvJxTDmu

— Populism Updates (@PopulismUpdates) August 4, 2021

this entire state can fuck off

Key thing here is its likely voters, with the registered dems not enthusiastic. Hopefully news like this changes the enthusiasm. But also Newsom could help here.

looks like newsom has decided 1) to pretend it's him vs larry elder, which is probably smart 2) tell people about his incredibly popular policies

New anti-recall ad for ⁦@GavinNewsom⁩ goes right to the #1 issue with most CA voters— the vaccines, the Delta variant and the stark difference between candidates - @YouTube https://t.co/lzY0KiLXaf

— Carla Marinucci (@cmarinucci) August 16, 2021

WATCH: CA Republican gubernatorial candidate in recall served subpoena during debate pic.twitter.com/jUue7ozmTh

— Melody Gutierrez (@MelodyGutierrez) August 18, 2021

Are you really served when you get it flung at you

So what's everyone doing for the other part of the ballot? Leave it blank like the Newsom campaign says? Vote for the dem youtuber w/ nuts policies? Vote for R former mayor of San Diego who maybe won't be a total mess? Write in the Lt Gov (which apparently doesn't count?) Wait to decide until you lose the ballot?

Tough choices.

I left it blank. I checked with SF elections and they already received my ballot

I don't want to vote for Faulconer and everybody else on the ballot is a joke

I did end up writing in the Lt Gov, which I know doesn't count.

Yeah agree. I just can't vote for Faulconer.

I left it blank as well.. the whole thing is a sham.

Every four years we have a 'conversation' about how lame the Electoral College is, and then it dies down only to reignite four years later. I feel like we need to have a conversation about CA's ridiculously low bar for recall, but we'll likely just move on when this is finished, whatever the outcome

A federal lawsuit has been filed, arguing that this recall election "allows a replacement candidate to be elected with a small plurality — and potentially with far fewer votes than the number of votes cast to keep the current governor". It won't have an influence on the recall but it is a compelling argument. Ultimately I think Newsom will be ok

it’s so crazy. it seems like we’ve had a recall vote on every governor since i moved to this stupid state in 2002

Gray Davis was in a far weaker position than Newsome is right now.. and no big star candidate like Schwarzenegger

Seems like he's being recalled for eating at a posh restaurant, as far as I can tell

Cox and Elder are both lunatics so I voted Faulconer.

It doesn't matter if there's a big star candidate. The big star is the idea of recalling Newsom, which is very attractive for some. Elder seems to have the strongest constituency among the listed candidates.

I can see that it makes sense to vote for someone in case he is recalled, but I couldn't do it. Faulconer voted for Trump in 2020, which is enough said. I don't want to add to his votes to bolster his case for running next year

I haven't voted yet, but I'll probably go for Faulconer. Elder is leading in the question #2 polls, and I'd hate to see him get it.

Even if Newsom is booted (through Dem sloth), I don't think whichever Repub wins will get anywhere near enough of a boost to win in 2022.

Supermajorities for, what, 5 years and they’ve just sat around and done nothing about a recall process that can only hurt them.

Even voting for a Green candidate (with a "no" on recall) would be better than leaving it blank. It shows support for the progressive side.