From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

Thanks, that Carnegie piece links to this, which I got a lot out of: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/02/biden-putin-killer-kremlin-propaganda-crimea-approval-rating-economy/

For Putin, this fall from grace was totally avoidable. His ratings nosedive can be traced directly back to June 2018, when the Russian government announced a proposal to raise the retirement age from 55 to 63 for women and from 60 to 65 for men. (The unpopular bill, which was enacted that October, ended up raising the retirement age for women to just 60.) It was a violation of the core, unwritten social contract of Putin’s Russia: We vote for you, and you don’t touch our social benefits.

This feels like an escalation: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/24/belarus-seizure-blogger-ryanair-flight-us-outcry

Yes, and difficult to imagine it won’t lead to repercussions for Belarus, though it’s not completely clear what those are going to be, given that the leadership is already under sanction. Could possibly mean ending flights in to / over the country,

The press release from RyanAir was a fucking disgrace.

Belavia has been banned from operating via the U.K.

The Belarusian authorities have, rather optimistically, tried to blame Hamas.

BA flight from London to Islamabad now bypassing Belarus following Raab's announcement
https://www.flightradar24.com/BAW261/27cff638

What the fuck is going on in Belarus right now? Is this accurate?

Bonkers... Belarussian authorities have granted thousands of migrants from the Middle East visas to visit, and then escorted them to the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, under watchful eye of Belarussian authorities, and stranded them in the cold. https://t.co/ySzHmk7n0l

— Vivian Salama (@vmsalama) November 11, 2021

Belarus dictator is the pits, but this is some real passive-aggressive shit-stirring.

This is a good piece on the use of ‘weaponised migration’ as a concept:

https://www.statewatch.org/news/2021/november/eu-the-weaponised-migration-discourse-dehumanises-asylum-seekers/

Both sides are behaving appallingly. Belarus is, at minimum, profiteering from people’s desperation to reach the EU, financially and politically. Poland and Lithuania have blocked routes, had guards violently attack people trying to cross and are preventing NGOs from coming within 2km of the border to offer food and medical aid. This has been going on for months and is only going to get worse as the temperatures drop.

Heavy artillery fire being reported from Azerbaijan towards Armenia. pic.twitter.com/q3uNO4mJHi

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) September 12, 2022

unsurprising timing

I am not a military or 'border conflict' expert. I am a political analyst with years of fieldwork research in Kyrgyzstan. Since there is a need to explain what's going b/n Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan, I thought to collect here some analysis by my colleagues & myself.
A long thread🧵

— Asel Doolotkeldieva (@ADoolotkeldieva) September 18, 2022

Any recommendations for reading on the Turkey/Greece situation? Elections next year and inflation in Turkey eye-watering

https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/post-2023-election-scenarios-in-turkey

Starting to look at possible scenarios for 2023 here with election 7 months away

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Turkish_presidential_election

This has ome around pretty fast, looks like going to a run-off which would presumably then be advantage Kilicdaroglu

Seems a bit like Brazil except the ominous upswing for Erdogan now has me thinking he will squeak it (because people looovveee jailing journalists and hyperinflation?).

Less than a week to go, bit of a kerfuffle with a bus and some stones in Erzurum.

Read a suggestion that because parliament is Erdogan controlled, after the run off Erdoğan’s line will be “vote me to avoid split government with Kılıçdaroğlu”. Be v interesting to see what happens. You certainly wouldn’t want to bet against Erdoğan - experienced and has the media and state control to generate his preferred outcome.

not sure this is exactly the right thread for ongoing turkey conversation but as we’re here, roll out the barrel:

Erdoğan gives public workers 45 percent pay rise in Turkey’s tight election race

Greece 's elections following on from this week after next, but its the upcoming Slovak elections in September that look most concerning, Slovakia been heading in a bad direction for a while now

Not sure whats happening here with delays in certain districts, but looks like it will go to second round as predicted?

Looks like Erdogan has this now in the run off

https://english.nv.ua/nation/lukashenko-pardons-belarusian-journalist-sentenced-to-eight-years-in-prison-50326284.html

That guy on the Ryanair flight Belarus forced to land a couple of years ago unexpectedly released!

damn what's the catch

Not really sure! like a lot of things of late