Brazil - have you been there?

Oh, also, a very important figure in recent Brazilian politics: Marielle Franco, whose murder the police are almost certainly implicated in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marielle_Franco

I think she may have been featured for a few minutes but it slipped my mind this morning. one of the triggers for a number of new candidates to stand.

looong piece attempting to define The Brazilianization of the World. There are lots of interesting bits, but it ended up drawing a long 'hmmmmmmm' from me.

central theses include, from my single reading:

• deaption: the behaviour and social responses to ideas (such as enlightenment liberalism) displaced in zones with different material conditions (eg colonised countries) - strong
• the applicability of that process back out globally - v wary
• high level geopolitical mechanics of end of history to

this quote gives a good example of where i'm super-wary: do they *actually* make rich and powerful states look like banana republics? (an unhelpful term, given its literal meaning - i assume the meaning here is more 'shoddy governance and public corruption').

yes we have seen very recent examples of political indifference to corruption, which in turn do seem greater in venality and magnitude that the sort of corruption visible in earlier decades, but on the whole the public and civic structures in western democracies are still very strong.

i'm also incredible wary about generalising patterns of wealth inequality across different countries - wealth inequality in the US has grown significantly since the bicentennial of the declaration in 1976, wealth inequality took a jump in the thatcher years but has stayed static in the UK since. (that's not to say there aren't very visible signs of how we fail the most vulnerable eg homelessness, or substantial deficits being built up in the civic realm eg social care, which will probably lead to significant increases in wealth inequality, just that the measures have been static, and wealth inequality in the UK is more of a London and its large financial hinterland, and everywhere else.

the piece is good on the telos of post-history liberalisation that endorses fascism when it doesn't get its way (eg the outcome of the telos doesn't materialise) - the relief with which papers like the Economist welcomed Bolsanaro being the best example.

at one point the author identifies a social mechanic for the absence (and therefore the conditions for the presence of) culture:

Writing in the early 1940s, the great Brazilian historian Caio Prado Jr. analyzed the colonial form of contemporary Brazil, remarking upon the efficiency of the colonial order as an organization of pro­duction combined with a sterility with respect to higher-level social relations—all economy, no culture. What defined a modern periphery molded by colonialism was therefore a “lack of a moral nexus,” that complex of human institutions that maintain individuals linked and united in a society and that weld them into a cohesive and compact whole. If we already hear echoes of the contemporary neoliberal dis­aggregation of society here, it is not by chance.

I buy it. But you then don't get to do this later in the same essay:

Given the country’s natural bounty, its admired and widely shared culture (despite everything)

nope, you don't get to do a 'despite everything' there i'm afraid. it exists in the conditions you have outlined so what does that mean for the 'lack of moral nexus' thesis? Maybe at most it just means that culture is not dependent on that moral nexus, and is just shaped by, adaptive to, and reflective of the material conditions of its creation. (and indeed the frictions of 'deaption' (a new concept to me).

it gets pretty sketchy towards the end, referring to 'the EU's neoliberal death spiral'. really? i mean it's been pragmatically and frequently badly managing crisis from day one and continues to do so and presumably will one day cease to exist or transform beyond its current definition. but i don't see any reason to call that a death spiral.

so yes, some easy mode thinking, but it's a good piece with plenty of ideas in it.

picked it up from Adam Tooze's excellent Chartbook series - this one on Central America and the Caribbean.

*high level geopolotics from end of history to the end of the end of history

i should probably say the whole piece is an attempt to understand what comes next via an analysis of what a definition of what Brazilianization is and might look like. i think there's a lot of *reach* there tbh, but as i say, it's good.

DEATH OF SATIRE KLAXON tho ffs.

Social movements flood São Paulo's Paulista Avenue demanding vaccines, food and the immediately impeachment of Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro.pic.twitter.com/u2o5HgOk2U

— Kawsachun News (@KawsachunNews) May 29, 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/14/bolsonaro-brazil-hospital-hiccups

thoughts and prayers

"with one prominent Brazilian journalist claiming the president was suffering from a bowel obstruction."

"Where ere you be, let your wind blow free, for it is the wind, that killeth thee."

Hope to see him in the Obituary thread soon

aw not too soon. a while longer. with deterioration

That dental surgeon is the silent hero Brazil deserves.

And needs, obv.

i hope the hiccups never go away and he ends himself in a year or two. after he's been voted out and maybe lula can through a little case his way for good measure

Bolsonaro is being transferred to São Paulo hospital after doctors diagnose bowel obstruction.

After 10 days of hiccups, he was rushed to the hospital in Brasília early this morning. https://t.co/96lzOXOGOV

— Raquel Krähenbühl (@Rkrahenbuhl) July 14, 2021

RI p- ip ip ip

Diddums got a sore tummy?

A busy day for the Brasilian doctor whose expertise is prolonged hiccups.

Not unrelated:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/14/amazon-rainforest-now-emitting-more-co2-than-it-absorbs

Sao Paulo, Brazil, on July 24, 2021

Burning statue of Borba Gato, symbol of slavery pic.twitter.com/f3RWmh5O8I

— Emily (@Emily_Lykos) July 25, 2021

is he still hiccuping, do we know?

https://www.fiafnet.org/pages/News/FIAF-Statement-Cinemateca-Brasileira-07-2021.html

"It is with great shock and upset that the International Federation of Film Archives (FIAF) and its 172 Members and Associates around the world heard reports of a fire in one of the warehouses of the Cinemateca Brasileira in São Paulo on 29 July 2021."

SMDH--this is just the latest disaster to hit Brazil's cultural institutions under Bolsonaro. The Cinemateca staff had been warning the government that something like this could happen.

Lol

#BREAKING Brazil's Bolsonaro urgently hospitalized: reports pic.twitter.com/y52Uw1hjmq

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) January 3, 2022

one of the better new years

goddamnwhen is this guy gonna finally fuckin die

intestinal blockage again?!

Lula is so cool pic.twitter.com/ylTAtp3OxD

— Venom Lord (getting worried) (@aniceburrito) September 30, 2022

bread and picanhas, baby

just voted here in NYC. hope this all ends.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZJ6QGSpVSk

Have been following the emigrant/diaspora results, Brazilians in Ireland:

BREAKING: 🇧🇷🇮🇪

🗳️ RESULTADO DA IRLANDA:

Lula VENCE na Irlanda

Results of Brazilian Citizens voting in Ireland (1st Round):

Lula: 73.80%
Bolsonaro: 17.51%
Others: 8.69%#Eleicoes2022

pic.twitter.com/EctOL9yyUy

— Next Irish General Election (@NextIrishGE) October 2, 2022

Brazil, Ipec exit poll:

Lula (PT, centre-left): 52% (new)
Bolsonaro (PL, right): 26% (-20)
Gomes (PDT, centre-left): 7% (-5)
…

(+/- 2018 Election)

Sample size: 22,004 #Brazil #eleiçoes2022 pic.twitter.com/fsL503HU7H

— America Elects (@AmericaEIige) October 2, 2022

Sounds too good to be true.

There’s no exit polling this year, I read? It’s the results that are being counted now

One of the comments to that tweet also said no exit poll.

yeah, no exits. bloomberg is tracking it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-brazil-election/

numbers are higher for Bolsonaro because most of the complete/quicker results are always in areas where he has more votes anyway.

looking at family and friends posts – there was also larger turnout I think this year.

last election was the biggest number of people voting blank/null ever.

Hope for a strong 1st round result for Lula, one & done would be great but…

Mark Hamill is... cool?

The future is YOURS, Brasil. 🇧🇷 pic.twitter.com/A8p1uu5gHW

— Mark Hamill (@MarkHamill) October 1, 2022

hamill and mark rufallo are normally giving their support a lot to lula and against bolsonaro. ruffalo for a long time, afaik

This thread from French ipsos guy is tasty.

🇧🇷🗳️ Les résultats à ce stade dans les plus grandes villes :

São Paulo : Lula 48,9% (Haddad 39,6%)
Rio de Janeiro : Lula 42,3% (Haddad 33,6%)
Brasilia : Lula 36,4% (Haddad 30%)

Lula fait nettement mieux qu'Haddad *au second tour* en 2018.

— mathieu gallard (@mathieugallard) October 2, 2022

taking a lead now, exactly around the time it normally turns for PT/left parties

well, getting a new red outfit ready for the end of the month now

Brazil’s Congress will be very right wing, as usual. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party is projected to be the largest in the chamber of deputies, with possibly over 100 seats. In 2018 his PSL only got 52. Lula has appeal, but the PT is weak in the downballot races.

— Liam (@Hezbolsonaro) October 2, 2022

Seems like moderate centrists reluctantly voted for fascism? How odd

A lot of Bolsanaro's base seems to be more middle-class, richer.

I wonder what Lula can do about Amazon deforestation if he doesn't have much help in Congress? That's what I'll be looking out for.

BREAKING: Sergio Moro – Bolsonaro’s former Justice Minister and architect of the Lava Jato prosecution that put Lula in prison on false charges of corruption – is elected to the Senate. pic.twitter.com/BrrKoOHuZ6

— David Adler (@davidrkadler) October 2, 2022

closeness of this doesn't bode well at all

Lula is a strong favourite to win. But his popularity has stopped disguising the weakness of the centre left. We can see it now as the results have come in for the Congress and Senate.

In that sense its very similar to much of the world: US, UK, and so on.

in the sense that lula was freed from jail and that legal proceedings were curtailed i guess you can say that the "procedural centre" held, at least for now

closeness of this doesn't bode well at all

Someone on twitter pointed out that the difference of votes between Lula and Bolsonaro is roughly equivalent to Portugal's entire voting population. Lotta people in Brazil! Astounding insight I know.

How brutal is this election in Brazil? Lula’s campaign stated yesterday that he believes in God “and does not have a pact with, nor has he ever spoken with the Devil.” pic.twitter.com/JSDPWfySXi

— Brian Winter (@BrazilBrian) October 5, 2022