the scottish independence referendum

The worst thing about this tweet?

For 5 years, the government's own experts have told them that every Brexit scenario will make the British people poorer, and the only time they're willing to admit that, is when it can be used for political advantage to threaten Scotland. https://t.co/G483i62FgM

— Femi😷 (@Femi_Sorry) February 5, 2021

here we fucking go

It’s going to pass this time isn’t it?

it’ll pass 52/48 in favour and the tories will say it’s too narrow a margin to allow it to happen

if it doesn't pass this time then it will be disastrous, in so many ways. I'm still not convinced one way or another for various reasons but I kinda want it to happen because the alternative timeline for both Scotland and the UK is cataclysmic

I wouldn't put money on it tbh. I can't imagine what state the economy and the world at large will be by Oct 2023.

looking forward to seeing Gordon Brown out on the big stage again where he belongs

Nothing is certain but the yoon argument has taken a ton of damage since the first referendum - Brexit alone must be worth at least 10% to yes. I am saying this mindful of the various caveats about the reality of indyScot but the last eight years haven’t exactly been “we’re so glad you stayed”.

the Scottish Government is currently taking control over the administration of the benefits system and has made a deliberate and real committment to treating claimants better than DWP. If the roll-out is a success it's going to have a huge impact. Plus, Brexit.

the flipside is that, you only need to spend a day in Sturgeon's own constituency to see the kind of thing that turns voters off - poor housing, fly-tipping and litter, rampant effects of drug use. I live here and I like it, but when you've had to call the council to put down traps for rats in the communal bin area shared by six tenenment blocks, you do have to ask if things are going as well as they possibly could.

going to be interesting to see

* are the tories going to try to declare it illegitimate? surely this couldn't be another catalonia, but then what?
* what kind of remain campaign can be mounted if the vote isn't supported by national parties?
* will there just be a spoiler boycott in order to undermine legitimacy?

My timeline already full of "just go away, we're subsidising you ungrateful and we don't want you" guys, who all seem to have changed their tune from the unionist tune they were all dancing to in 2014 insisting we had to stay for, um, reasons.

I think for it to be successful it has to be made very clear to idiots like, say, my mum, that the SNP don't have to be the party in government of an independent Scotland. She hated Salmond and hates Sturgeon (despite all the free prescriptions and the free buses and the forthcoming free education her grandson will benefit from, to pick three examples) and even hating the Tories won't convince her to cut Scotland adrift of Westminster because boo SNP bad (c) BBC Scotland and the Scottish Daily Mail.

I'm an indy supporter but I'm really not sure if this is the right time. It doesn't feel to me like there's much demand for a second referendum right now, what with how wild everything's been over the last few years

I've seen people argue that Brexit might actually put voters off voting for Scottish independence, that all the chaos and disruption of leaving the EU will make voters worry that leaving the UK would be equally (or even more) fraught, as well as the fact that an independent Scotland would have to rejoin the EU rather than automatically remaining a member. Does this seem credible to people more in-the-know than me, or is desire to rejoin the EU/resentment of being pulled out of the EU by England the more significant factor?

I don't think Scottish (re)accession to the EU will necessarily be straightforward, given Spanish thoughts about the precedent it would set for Catalonia

whether that is something that Scottish voters will take into account ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If only Russia could be persuaded to invade Scotland.

xxxp I think that worry about the disruption of leaving the UK and wanting to join the EU probably cancel each other out. That's just a personal feeling, I don't have any data to back that up

I remember in 2014 Salmond insisting that negotiating Scotland's exit from the UK would be very straightforward, both Scotland and the rump UK would have a shared interest coming to an agreement everyone was happy with etc, which seemed implausible at the time and is even more unconvincing after Brexit.

Ironically probably a better chance of negotiation with any other government than this one

yesterday I heard the most important issue being brought up on PM: Would ppl from rump UK to be able to take their dogs with them into an independent Scotland without any nonsense like when they take them to France these days. The posh as fuck English people that take their dogs with them on holiday lobby deserve to have their say on Scotland's future as well!