I thought of two that check out, although for obvious reasons they're almost the exceptions that prove the rule: Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm.
― clemenza, Sunday, 31 January 2021 20:49 (three years ago) link
How many guys in the Hall of Fame had zero all star appearances prior to age 30?
i think adrian beltre might fit the bill, once he gets in.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml
if i'm reading that correctly, he didn't make an all-star team until age 31, despite finishing 2nd in the MVP race at age 25 with the dodgers
― Karl Malone, Monday, 1 February 2021 00:42 (three years ago) link
Veteran's Committee nominations for this year (two categories):
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/baseball-hall-of-fame-announces-early-baseball-golden-days-era-committee-ballots-for-2022/
These committees are a mystery, but my guesses would be Buck O'Neil and Dick Allen.
― clemenza, Saturday, 6 November 2021 03:22 (two years ago) link
jeez, there are many, many, worthy candidates here
buck o'neil, dick allen, but also minnie minoso and gil hodges. ken boyer and lefty o'doul as well
― just staying (Karl Malone), Saturday, 6 November 2021 05:10 (two years ago) link
not sure about all of them, but i just mean there's a ton of good candidates here
― just staying (Karl Malone), Saturday, 6 November 2021 05:11 (two years ago) link
Pretty much all of those 'golden days' players probably should have gotten the call when they were around. They can throw in Vada Pinson and Curt Flood too why they are at it.
I'm sure all the others probably should be there too.
― earlnash, Sunday, 7 November 2021 23:28 (two years ago) link
Lefty O'Doul looks pretty suspect--a prime that lasted all of four years, inflated offensive era, and his home stats for '29/30, his two biggest years, are freakish. Shibe Park was infamous--he hit .453 at home in 1929.
― clemenza, Monday, 8 November 2021 00:35 (two years ago) link
yeah, but his name is lefty o'doul, first off, and his HOF case depends on what you think of his non-playing activities. i love the wikipedia citations argument going on in the second paragraph here:
O'Doul was instrumental in spreading baseball's popularity in Japan, serving as the sport's goodwill ambassador before and after World War II. The Tokyo Giants, sometimes considered "Japan's Baseball Team", were named by him in 1935 in honor of his longtime association with the New York Giants; the logo and uniform of the Giants in Japan strongly resemble their North American counterparts.O'Doul was inducted into the San Francisco Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame in 1981 and the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame in 2002. He has the highest career batting average of any player eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame who is not enshrined.[original research] Contrary to popular belief,[whose?] his hitting exceeded the standard of his era;[citation needed] had he played his first full season prior to the age of 31, he would likely have been inducted.[opinion]
O'Doul was inducted into the San Francisco Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame in 1981 and the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame in 2002. He has the highest career batting average of any player eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame who is not enshrined.[original research] Contrary to popular belief,[whose?] his hitting exceeded the standard of his era;[citation needed] had he played his first full season prior to the age of 31, he would likely have been inducted.[opinion]
― just staying (Karl Malone), Monday, 8 November 2021 03:11 (two years ago) link
i guess there's an argument that what he did in japan doesn't factor into his MLB case. but since MLB is currently the de facto "world league" (the best players come to the U.S. to play baseball, generally, when they can), I feel like playing a key role in supporting the game globally should be worth a lot
― just staying (Karl Malone), Monday, 8 November 2021 03:12 (two years ago) link
All valid, I do think such things should count; and if you throw in all his PCL years, he hit .351 over a 27-year career. Still feels kind of iffy to me.
― clemenza, Monday, 8 November 2021 03:46 (two years ago) link
Posnanski: "Lefty O’Doul is really fascinating because he has not really been considered for the Hall of Fame in several decades." Sounds like he's amenable.
― clemenza, Monday, 8 November 2021 14:49 (two years ago) link
There's a guy I bowl with who's a big Giants fan; he thinks Lincecum will get in towards the end of his 10-year window. A little starry-eyed, to put it mildly...Memorable guy, great 2-3 year peak. My own guess is that he gets 30% first time around, maybe a little higher, and that's the best he ever does.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 02:44 (two years ago) link
His drop off was so fast and kind of shocking really. That peak was amazing, but for sure too brief for the hall. God bless your friend tho.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 24 November 2021 05:01 (two years ago) link
Without checking, my guess is that Lincecum sits at the bottom of the list of pitchers with two or more Cy Youngs--him and McClain. More peak value for McClain (meaning the two Cy years only), more career value for Lincecum.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:39 (two years ago) link
I can now verify this to be true. After those two, you take a big leap up to maybe Kluber and Saberhagen.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:42 (two years ago) link
(McClain actually has slightly more career bWAR than Lincecum, more than 75% of it from his two Cy years.)
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:44 (two years ago) link
I can't see him doing any better than Johan did
― ✖, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:49 (two years ago) link
2.4% and out--you're probably right, don't know why I said 30%. Obviously, Santana was a much more qualified candidate; there is a legitimate peak argument for Santana, and even for his career he edged over 50.0 bWAR.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 22:38 (two years ago) link
i've been a bit johanpilled by his supporters... he definitely shouldn't have been a one and done at least. maybe i'm biased because this was when i first started watching baseball seriously, but he *felt* like the best pitcher in the world from 04-06 and literally the only good pitcher in the AL. should've won 3 CYs.
― ✖, Thursday, 25 November 2021 01:35 (two years ago) link
Is Lincecum really better than Hershiser or Doc Gooden?
Gut feeling says no.
― earlnash, Thursday, 25 November 2021 03:19 (two years ago) link
I don't think so, no, not for peak (late '80s Hershiser, Gooden early on) or career. Hershiser in '88 and Gooden in '85 were phenomenal. Cone was better, Stieb was better, Viola was probably better, a lot of guys were. Sounds like I'm really down on Lincecum; I'm not, just reacting to this guy I know thinking he's HOF-bound. He was one of the best reasons to watch baseball for a few years...a very few years.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:02 (two years ago) link
Where do fidrych and lincecum rank on similarity scores
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:38 (two years ago) link
Great comparison in a lot of ways (starting with haircut), but Fidrych only pitched 150 innings total after his first season.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:41 (two years ago) link
Grim list:
Alex Fernandez (958.1)Jake Arrieta (956.5)Charlie Morton (950.2)Scott Kazmir (948.8)Sid Fernandez (942.5)Lance Lynn (942.4)Jim Bibby (940.6)Jose Rijo (939.3)Yovani Gallardo (938.8)Pete Harnisch (938.8)
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 25 November 2021 05:12 (two years ago) link
I would not say grim, there are some good pitchers there.
Some are like Lincecum in that they were really good some near the best for a couple seasons and then the injuries happened.
RijoBig SidArrieta (really one killer year)Kazmir
Then some are guys that are more just solid, some up and down periods.
LynnMorton FernandezHarnisch
Then there are a couple late bloomers like Jim Bibby who I think was a reliever for a long while that suddenly had some success as a starter for the Pirates.
― earlnash, Friday, 26 November 2021 00:30 (two years ago) link
grim list in terms of HOF chances, i guess.
clemenza your friend has no idea, lincecum has 0% chance. but he's a 100% SFG hall of famer, if they have one
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 02:38 (two years ago) link
He's just a guy I bowl with--I've known him for three months...I enjoy talking baseball with him, he's got something to say on almost any name that pops up, but no, I won't be consulting him if I'm ever in a HOF pool or something like that.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 03:47 (two years ago) link
I was reading a roundup by Jay Jaffe the other day and a) Vizquel's personal issues were even nastier than I knew, and b) Jaffe seems to think Ortiz is on the fence; I'd bet money he goes in right away.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 03:49 (two years ago) link
ortiz seems like a good 3rd-4th year candidate, but yeah, i think he'll make it
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 04:03 (two years ago) link
In terms of the "fame" part, the dude helped break the curse of the Bambino. That's about as legendary as you can get.
I think people hitting playoff homers in droves over the past couple decades kinda makes the numbers maybe not quite as impressive, but criminy at that point I don't think I had ever seen one batter pretty much pick up his team and carry them like Ortiz did in '04.
― earlnash, Friday, 26 November 2021 12:21 (two years ago) link
Ortiz should be a no brainer first ballot selection but the 2003 steroid test still hangs over him like a cloud, so the voters might make him wait a few of years just because, like they did with Piazza and Bagwell.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 26 November 2021 15:22 (two years ago) link
I mean the 2003 leak is only hard on the voters bc it requires them to be consistent in the application of their morality; p sure everyone wants to see ortiz in because it would be fun (he shd be in even if just for big hall reasons)
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 26 November 2021 16:00 (two years ago) link
i revise my estimate to 1st or 2nd year. I see that Vlad (SENIOR) got 70% in the first year, made it in on the second. Ortiz has very comparable stats to Vlad, + the curse + "Big Papi" stuff. i wouldn't say no-brainer first ballot (just because he was a DH), but it's possible
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 17:50 (two years ago) link
Just a gut feeling--he'll get a pass on the PED issue (enough of one, anyway), and Edgar paved the way for first-ballot.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 21:15 (two years ago) link
yeah he’s in first ballot I think. certainly within 2-3 years
― k3vin k., Saturday, 27 November 2021 02:47 (two years ago) link
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!39939&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!AK9u16pmWGGlQsI
First ballot in--defiantly pro-PED/MAGA.
― clemenza, Sunday, 28 November 2021 00:10 (two years ago) link
The rest of my life is going to be annoying
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 28 November 2021 01:40 (two years ago) link
welcome to middle age
― mookieproof, Sunday, 28 November 2021 01:55 (two years ago) link
Not great so far!
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 28 November 2021 18:36 (two years ago) link
these early voters are some real sickos
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 29 November 2021 19:48 (two years ago) link
To vote for Clemens but not Bonds... I don't get it
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, 29 November 2021 20:08 (two years ago) link
This one's something else:
https://www.delcotimes.com/2021/11/28/mccaffery-jimmy-rollins-ryan-howard-passed-hall-of-fame-eye-test/
― clemenza, Monday, 29 November 2021 22:47 (two years ago) link
true sicko
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 29 November 2021 22:50 (two years ago) link
this is one of the most hilarious pieces of baseball writing i've ever read
So writers it must be, for they are relied upon for their eyes, their guts, their contacts, their experiences, their objectivity. And ultimately, they get it right, even if it sometimes takes a while. Even the system itself has enough firewalls to ensure Derek Jeter makes it to Cooperstown, even if some rogue voter chooses not to include him on a ballot.It is under that system, then, that Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are each one checked-ballot closer to Cooperstown than they were on Thanksgiving Eve. Though neither is projected to be named on the 75 percent of completed ballots necessary for induction, Cooperstown would be emptier without their presence.They were cut-above superstars for a NL East dynasty, ultimate professionals, big-game performers, steroid-free competitors who not only generated statistics as alluring as many already in the Hall of Fame, but never brazenly broke a rule. In the case of Howard, he belonged in the Hall of Fame alone for running out a ground ball to end a playoff series with one of his Achilles tendons dragging six feet behind.Those first two votes, then, were simple: Rollins? Check. Howard? Check.
It is under that system, then, that Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are each one checked-ballot closer to Cooperstown than they were on Thanksgiving Eve. Though neither is projected to be named on the 75 percent of completed ballots necessary for induction, Cooperstown would be emptier without their presence.
They were cut-above superstars for a NL East dynasty, ultimate professionals, big-game performers, steroid-free competitors who not only generated statistics as alluring as many already in the Hall of Fame, but never brazenly broke a rule. In the case of Howard, he belonged in the Hall of Fame alone for running out a ground ball to end a playoff series with one of his Achilles tendons dragging six feet behind.
Those first two votes, then, were simple: Rollins? Check. Howard? Check.
― skull. kneel. kneel. kneel. kneel. (Karl Malone), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:39 (two years ago) link
listen, everyone. i'm the expert here. and since i am the expert, you can rely on me for my guts, as well as my objectivity. i've got it all. and that's why ryan howard is a hall of famer. next
― skull. kneel. kneel. kneel. kneel. (Karl Malone), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:41 (two years ago) link
My memory's awful--who's the guy who continued to pitch in a playoff game this year after hurting himself badly? He has to go in too under the Ryan Howard rule.
― clemenza, Monday, 29 November 2021 23:45 (two years ago) link
Jimmy Rollins would be a poor choice, though not a completely indefensible one viewed in a vacuum (i.e., ignoring all the better players who aren't in there).
― clemenza, Monday, 29 November 2021 23:47 (two years ago) link
i remember thinking of jimmy rollins as a great shortstop, not quite a hall of fame one. but the ryan howard pick is just hilarious. that was one of the worst contracts in baseball, until he retired. from 2010-2016, he was worth a total of 0.8 fWAR, with negative numbers in 4 of those 7 seasons. and even his early glory days were marred by his piss poor defense. it's a vote that makes no sense unless you declare your gut to be correct and then go with your rong gut
― skull. kneel. kneel. kneel. kneel. (Karl Malone), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:51 (two years ago) link
to be fair, ryan howard does have 200+ more homers than buster posey ;)
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:53 (two years ago) link
"NL East dynasty"
― ✖, Tuesday, 30 November 2021 01:17 (two years ago) link