hall of fame, next vote...

Hey Curt: What Hall of Famer said 12 Swiss Jewish bankers ruled the world, the last 8 US presidents were “traitors” and AIDS was hatched in a Maryland lab in order to kill gays and blacks and still got 95.82 pct of the vote? A: Steve Carlton. P.S. I voted for him and for you.

— Bob Ryan (@GlobeBobRyan) January 28, 2021

bob . . . thanks

What a steaming pile of a hot take.

"Freedom of speech got your ass out of Cooperstown, bro'"

The Straw that Stirs the drink has spoken.

I think with Schilling you really have to talk about what a nonentity he was in his twenties. He had a few very good seasons on some bad Phillies teams, especially age 30 and age 31, where his strikeout rate dramatically improved over what he showed in his twenties. In his first all-star appearance at age 30, he was the Phillies' only all star. He was basically Jason Schmidt, the ace of a bad team.

How many guys in the Hall of Fame had zero all star appearances prior to age 30?

probably a good amount of guys that retired before 1933.

I thought of two that check out, although for obvious reasons they're almost the exceptions that prove the rule: Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm.

How many guys in the Hall of Fame had zero all star appearances prior to age 30?

i think adrian beltre might fit the bill, once he gets in.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

if i'm reading that correctly, he didn't make an all-star team until age 31, despite finishing 2nd in the MVP race at age 25 with the dodgers

Veteran's Committee nominations for this year (two categories):

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/baseball-hall-of-fame-announces-early-baseball-golden-days-era-committee-ballots-for-2022/

These committees are a mystery, but my guesses would be Buck O'Neil and Dick Allen.

jeez, there are many, many, worthy candidates here

buck o'neil, dick allen, but also minnie minoso and gil hodges. ken boyer and lefty o'doul as well

not sure about all of them, but i just mean there's a ton of good candidates here

Pretty much all of those 'golden days' players probably should have gotten the call when they were around. They can throw in Vada Pinson and Curt Flood too why they are at it.

I'm sure all the others probably should be there too.

Lefty O'Doul looks pretty suspect--a prime that lasted all of four years, inflated offensive era, and his home stats for '29/30, his two biggest years, are freakish. Shibe Park was infamous--he hit .453 at home in 1929.

yeah, but his name is lefty o'doul, first off, and his HOF case depends on what you think of his non-playing activities. i love the wikipedia citations argument going on in the second paragraph here:

O'Doul was instrumental in spreading baseball's popularity in Japan, serving as the sport's goodwill ambassador before and after World War II. The Tokyo Giants, sometimes considered "Japan's Baseball Team", were named by him in 1935 in honor of his longtime association with the New York Giants; the logo and uniform of the Giants in Japan strongly resemble their North American counterparts.

O'Doul was inducted into the San Francisco Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame in 1981 and the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame in 2002. He has the highest career batting average of any player eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame who is not enshrined.[original research] Contrary to popular belief,[whose?] his hitting exceeded the standard of his era;[citation needed] had he played his first full season prior to the age of 31, he would likely have been inducted.[opinion]

i guess there's an argument that what he did in japan doesn't factor into his MLB case. but since MLB is currently the de facto "world league" (the best players come to the U.S. to play baseball, generally, when they can), I feel like playing a key role in supporting the game globally should be worth a lot

All valid, I do think such things should count; and if you throw in all his PCL years, he hit .351 over a 27-year career. Still feels kind of iffy to me.

Posnanski: "Lefty O’Doul is really fascinating because he has not really been considered for the Hall of Fame in several decades." Sounds like he's amenable.

There's a guy I bowl with who's a big Giants fan; he thinks Lincecum will get in towards the end of his 10-year window. A little starry-eyed, to put it mildly...Memorable guy, great 2-3 year peak. My own guess is that he gets 30% first time around, maybe a little higher, and that's the best he ever does.

His drop off was so fast and kind of shocking really. That peak was amazing, but for sure too brief for the hall.
God bless your friend tho.

Without checking, my guess is that Lincecum sits at the bottom of the list of pitchers with two or more Cy Youngs--him and McClain. More peak value for McClain (meaning the two Cy years only), more career value for Lincecum.

I can now verify this to be true. After those two, you take a big leap up to maybe Kluber and Saberhagen.

(McClain actually has slightly more career bWAR than Lincecum, more than 75% of it from his two Cy years.)

I can't see him doing any better than Johan did

2.4% and out--you're probably right, don't know why I said 30%. Obviously, Santana was a much more qualified candidate; there is a legitimate peak argument for Santana, and even for his career he edged over 50.0 bWAR.

i've been a bit johanpilled by his supporters... he definitely shouldn't have been a one and done at least. maybe i'm biased because this was when i first started watching baseball seriously, but he *felt* like the best pitcher in the world from 04-06 and literally the only good pitcher in the AL. should've won 3 CYs.

Is Lincecum really better than Hershiser or Doc Gooden?

Gut feeling says no.

I don't think so, no, not for peak (late '80s Hershiser, Gooden early on) or career. Hershiser in '88 and Gooden in '85 were phenomenal. Cone was better, Stieb was better, Viola was probably better, a lot of guys were. Sounds like I'm really down on Lincecum; I'm not, just reacting to this guy I know thinking he's HOF-bound. He was one of the best reasons to watch baseball for a few years...a very few years.

Where do fidrych and lincecum rank on similarity scores

Great comparison in a lot of ways (starting with haircut), but Fidrych only pitched 150 innings total after his first season.

Grim list:

Alex Fernandez (958.1)
Jake Arrieta (956.5)
Charlie Morton (950.2)
Scott Kazmir (948.8)
Sid Fernandez (942.5)
Lance Lynn (942.4)
Jim Bibby (940.6)
Jose Rijo (939.3)
Yovani Gallardo (938.8)
Pete Harnisch (938.8)

I would not say grim, there are some good pitchers there.

Some are like Lincecum in that they were really good some near the best for a couple seasons and then the injuries happened.

Rijo
Big Sid
Arrieta (really one killer year)
Kazmir

Then some are guys that are more just solid, some up and down periods.

Lynn
Morton
Fernandez
Harnisch

Then there are a couple late bloomers like Jim Bibby who I think was a reliever for a long while that suddenly had some success as a starter for the Pirates.

grim list in terms of HOF chances, i guess.

clemenza your friend has no idea, lincecum has 0% chance. but he's a 100% SFG hall of famer, if they have one

He's just a guy I bowl with--I've known him for three months...I enjoy talking baseball with him, he's got something to say on almost any name that pops up, but no, I won't be consulting him if I'm ever in a HOF pool or something like that.

I was reading a roundup by Jay Jaffe the other day and a) Vizquel's personal issues were even nastier than I knew, and b) Jaffe seems to think Ortiz is on the fence; I'd bet money he goes in right away.

ortiz seems like a good 3rd-4th year candidate, but yeah, i think he'll make it

In terms of the "fame" part, the dude helped break the curse of the Bambino. That's about as legendary as you can get.

I think people hitting playoff homers in droves over the past couple decades kinda makes the numbers maybe not quite as impressive, but criminy at that point I don't think I had ever seen one batter pretty much pick up his team and carry them like Ortiz did in '04.

Ortiz should be a no brainer first ballot selection but the 2003 steroid test still hangs over him like a cloud, so the voters might make him wait a few of years just because, like they did with Piazza and Bagwell.

I mean the 2003 leak is only hard on the voters bc it requires them to be consistent in the application of their morality; p sure everyone wants to see ortiz in because it would be fun (he shd be in even if just for big hall reasons)

i revise my estimate to 1st or 2nd year. I see that Vlad (SENIOR) got 70% in the first year, made it in on the second. Ortiz has very comparable stats to Vlad, + the curse + "Big Papi" stuff. i wouldn't say no-brainer first ballot (just because he was a DH), but it's possible

Just a gut feeling--he'll get a pass on the PED issue (enough of one, anyway), and Edgar paved the way for first-ballot.

yeah he’s in first ballot I think. certainly within 2-3 years

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!39939&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!AK9u16pmWGGlQsI

First ballot in--defiantly pro-PED/MAGA.

The rest of my life is going to be annoying

welcome to middle age

Not great so far!

these early voters are some real sickos

To vote for Clemens but not Bonds... I don't get it

This one's something else:

https://www.delcotimes.com/2021/11/28/mccaffery-jimmy-rollins-ryan-howard-passed-hall-of-fame-eye-test/

true sicko

this is one of the most hilarious pieces of baseball writing i've ever read

So writers it must be, for they are relied upon for their eyes, their guts, their contacts, their experiences, their objectivity. And ultimately, they get it right, even if it sometimes takes a while. Even the system itself has enough firewalls to ensure Derek Jeter makes it to Cooperstown, even if some rogue voter chooses not to include him on a ballot.

It is under that system, then, that Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are each one checked-ballot closer to Cooperstown than they were on Thanksgiving Eve. Though neither is projected to be named on the 75 percent of completed ballots necessary for induction, Cooperstown would be emptier without their presence.

They were cut-above superstars for a NL East dynasty, ultimate professionals, big-game performers, steroid-free competitors who not only generated statistics as alluring as many already in the Hall of Fame, but never brazenly broke a rule. In the case of Howard, he belonged in the Hall of Fame alone for running out a ground ball to end a playoff series with one of his Achilles tendons dragging six feet behind.

Those first two votes, then, were simple: Rollins? Check. Howard? Check.