hall of fame, next vote...

Good day for Thermo's daughter. Schilling ~ 71%, Bonds and Clemens ~62%, Rolen just over 50%.

There's no way Schilling gets in his last year after what happened three weeks ago. I suspect he'll have a tough time with the Veteran's Committee too--aren't they, in general, bigger on character-counts than even the writers?

Scott Rolen's character seems pretty good why isn't he in ffs.

Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley are on the floor of the senate right now, trying to get the vote de-certified...I googled Schilling for some reaction and came across a letter he posted yesterday on Facebook (and linked to on Twitter--I thought he'd been kicked off). I only skimmed it--it's long and rambling. Obviously, I feel bad for him re his wife, who's in the middle of chemotherapy. Elsewhere, there's a real passive-aggressive self-pity going on: "I don’t think I’m a hall of famer as I’ve often stated but if former players think I am then I’ll accept that with honor." Read at your own risk.

https://www.facebook.com/1044701480/posts/10223220822362596/?d=n

Nah I'm good.

Recent good read on a vote given for player's character.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/1/26/22249356/commentary-why-i-voted-for-latroy-hawkins-on-my-baseball-hall-of-fame-ballot

I didn't read that Schilling thing closely enough: he's asked to be removed from the ballot.

https://www.tsn.ca/curt-schilling-requests-removal-of-his-name-from-baseball-hall-of-fame-ballot-1.1583338

Very Trumpian way to short-circuit falling short again.

I liked the way that writer defended his Latroy Hawkins vote, but he's a little schizophrenic--he also voted for Schilling.

I suspect he'll have a tough time with the Veteran's Committee too--aren't they, in general, bigger on character-counts than even the writers?

baseball players as a whole are conservative as fuc. for every dexter fowler or jason heyward there are half a dozen aubrey huffs or adam laroches. i don't think 'character' will mean the same thing to the veterans committee that it does to the writers

anyway, fuck him -- i'm just happy he didn't make it for now

xp hmm article has ?3 sentences about LH; seems mostly about other players...and giving schilling et al the benefit of the doubt

James's idea (posted as a poll on Twitter): "Suppose the HOF vote had 4 committees: BBWAA, Players, Executives/Analysts and Historians, and suppose you had to pass a test to serve on any committee (as well as other credentials). Suppose that 75% means getting a majority from 3 of the 4 committees. Better system, or not?"

not

curious as to what executives/analysts means, tho, and how it differs from the rest

"Analysts" would seem to align better with the BBWAA, and just call it media.

I don't think it's a bad idea, but a majority is too low--you'd get four or five inductees most years, I would think. I'd put it at 60%, or two-thirds. I thought three or four years ago that things were going to improve: the logjam was gone, and it was clear that the main group of PED players weren't going in (which at least meant that that debate wouldn't drone on). But it feels really messy again.

The BBWAA thinks that (alleged) drug use is a bigger crime than the stuff that Schilling says? IDGI.

Cronyism on the various HOF committees is more out of control than at any point since the 60's. Maybe people will look at Schilling's comments and take it as a sign that the process needs to change (yet again).

>The BBWAA thinks that (alleged) drug use is a bigger crime than the stuff that Schilling says?

yes AND capitol insurrection was jan 6th and ballots were due Dec 31. I would think there would be SOME attrition if ballots hadn't already been mailed. Nevertheless...

Scott Rolen's character seems pretty good why isn't he in ffs.

― Van Horn Street

he had a big jump in votes this year (52.9%, up from 35% or so), and jay jaffe seems to think he's on a glide path to election in a couple years

I think he's a sure-thing, just not sure when. He may get held back by Ortiz next year; in 2023, Beltran comes on, in 2024 it's Beltre.

I’m excited for Beltre. Dude had such a productive golden years to his career.
I hope his plaque has a hand reaching for his head off to the side.

With Rolen, I didn’t realize his career WAR had made it into the 70s (just). A few GG and all star games, a ROY - but only finished top ten in MVP once and never led the league in any notable offensive category ever (I find the later kind of surprising).

Hey Curt: What Hall of Famer said 12 Swiss Jewish bankers ruled the world, the last 8 US presidents were “traitors” and AIDS was hatched in a Maryland lab in order to kill gays and blacks and still got 95.82 pct of the vote? A: Steve Carlton. P.S. I voted for him and for you.

— Bob Ryan (@GlobeBobRyan) January 28, 2021

bob . . . thanks

What a steaming pile of a hot take.

"Freedom of speech got your ass out of Cooperstown, bro'"

The Straw that Stirs the drink has spoken.

I think with Schilling you really have to talk about what a nonentity he was in his twenties. He had a few very good seasons on some bad Phillies teams, especially age 30 and age 31, where his strikeout rate dramatically improved over what he showed in his twenties. In his first all-star appearance at age 30, he was the Phillies' only all star. He was basically Jason Schmidt, the ace of a bad team.

How many guys in the Hall of Fame had zero all star appearances prior to age 30?

probably a good amount of guys that retired before 1933.

I thought of two that check out, although for obvious reasons they're almost the exceptions that prove the rule: Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm.

How many guys in the Hall of Fame had zero all star appearances prior to age 30?

i think adrian beltre might fit the bill, once he gets in.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

if i'm reading that correctly, he didn't make an all-star team until age 31, despite finishing 2nd in the MVP race at age 25 with the dodgers

Veteran's Committee nominations for this year (two categories):

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/baseball-hall-of-fame-announces-early-baseball-golden-days-era-committee-ballots-for-2022/

These committees are a mystery, but my guesses would be Buck O'Neil and Dick Allen.

jeez, there are many, many, worthy candidates here

buck o'neil, dick allen, but also minnie minoso and gil hodges. ken boyer and lefty o'doul as well

not sure about all of them, but i just mean there's a ton of good candidates here

Pretty much all of those 'golden days' players probably should have gotten the call when they were around. They can throw in Vada Pinson and Curt Flood too why they are at it.

I'm sure all the others probably should be there too.

Lefty O'Doul looks pretty suspect--a prime that lasted all of four years, inflated offensive era, and his home stats for '29/30, his two biggest years, are freakish. Shibe Park was infamous--he hit .453 at home in 1929.

yeah, but his name is lefty o'doul, first off, and his HOF case depends on what you think of his non-playing activities. i love the wikipedia citations argument going on in the second paragraph here:

O'Doul was instrumental in spreading baseball's popularity in Japan, serving as the sport's goodwill ambassador before and after World War II. The Tokyo Giants, sometimes considered "Japan's Baseball Team", were named by him in 1935 in honor of his longtime association with the New York Giants; the logo and uniform of the Giants in Japan strongly resemble their North American counterparts.

O'Doul was inducted into the San Francisco Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame in 1981 and the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame in 2002. He has the highest career batting average of any player eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame who is not enshrined.[original research] Contrary to popular belief,[whose?] his hitting exceeded the standard of his era;[citation needed] had he played his first full season prior to the age of 31, he would likely have been inducted.[opinion]

i guess there's an argument that what he did in japan doesn't factor into his MLB case. but since MLB is currently the de facto "world league" (the best players come to the U.S. to play baseball, generally, when they can), I feel like playing a key role in supporting the game globally should be worth a lot

All valid, I do think such things should count; and if you throw in all his PCL years, he hit .351 over a 27-year career. Still feels kind of iffy to me.

Posnanski: "Lefty O’Doul is really fascinating because he has not really been considered for the Hall of Fame in several decades." Sounds like he's amenable.

There's a guy I bowl with who's a big Giants fan; he thinks Lincecum will get in towards the end of his 10-year window. A little starry-eyed, to put it mildly...Memorable guy, great 2-3 year peak. My own guess is that he gets 30% first time around, maybe a little higher, and that's the best he ever does.

His drop off was so fast and kind of shocking really. That peak was amazing, but for sure too brief for the hall.
God bless your friend tho.

Without checking, my guess is that Lincecum sits at the bottom of the list of pitchers with two or more Cy Youngs--him and McClain. More peak value for McClain (meaning the two Cy years only), more career value for Lincecum.

I can now verify this to be true. After those two, you take a big leap up to maybe Kluber and Saberhagen.

(McClain actually has slightly more career bWAR than Lincecum, more than 75% of it from his two Cy years.)

I can't see him doing any better than Johan did

2.4% and out--you're probably right, don't know why I said 30%. Obviously, Santana was a much more qualified candidate; there is a legitimate peak argument for Santana, and even for his career he edged over 50.0 bWAR.

i've been a bit johanpilled by his supporters... he definitely shouldn't have been a one and done at least. maybe i'm biased because this was when i first started watching baseball seriously, but he *felt* like the best pitcher in the world from 04-06 and literally the only good pitcher in the AL. should've won 3 CYs.

Is Lincecum really better than Hershiser or Doc Gooden?

Gut feeling says no.

I don't think so, no, not for peak (late '80s Hershiser, Gooden early on) or career. Hershiser in '88 and Gooden in '85 were phenomenal. Cone was better, Stieb was better, Viola was probably better, a lot of guys were. Sounds like I'm really down on Lincecum; I'm not, just reacting to this guy I know thinking he's HOF-bound. He was one of the best reasons to watch baseball for a few years...a very few years.

Where do fidrych and lincecum rank on similarity scores

Great comparison in a lot of ways (starting with haircut), but Fidrych only pitched 150 innings total after his first season.

Grim list:

Alex Fernandez (958.1)
Jake Arrieta (956.5)
Charlie Morton (950.2)
Scott Kazmir (948.8)
Sid Fernandez (942.5)
Lance Lynn (942.4)
Jim Bibby (940.6)
Jose Rijo (939.3)
Yovani Gallardo (938.8)
Pete Harnisch (938.8)

I would not say grim, there are some good pitchers there.

Some are like Lincecum in that they were really good some near the best for a couple seasons and then the injuries happened.

Rijo
Big Sid
Arrieta (really one killer year)
Kazmir

Then some are guys that are more just solid, some up and down periods.

Lynn
Morton
Fernandez
Harnisch

Then there are a couple late bloomers like Jim Bibby who I think was a reliever for a long while that suddenly had some success as a starter for the Pirates.

grim list in terms of HOF chances, i guess.

clemenza your friend has no idea, lincecum has 0% chance. but he's a 100% SFG hall of famer, if they have one

He's just a guy I bowl with--I've known him for three months...I enjoy talking baseball with him, he's got something to say on almost any name that pops up, but no, I won't be consulting him if I'm ever in a HOF pool or something like that.