Enough With The Cutesy Titles, People Are Dead: US Politics January 2021 pt 2

Unless Democrats can get the economy out of the shitbin, I don't see pickups in 2022.

If I had to make a guess, GOP holds onto the Florida and Wisconsin seats, democrats take one of the three vacant GOP seats, GOP take either the GA or the AZ seat.

Xps to akm - OH, sorry, missed that in the scrum. Carry on.

To man alive I feel like Trump Fatigue alters the equation a bit (cf. Georgia - neither D candidate was a strong contender until the runoffs became a referendum on "sick of this shit" vs. MAGA.)

Georgia also depended on unparalleled enthusiasm and fundraising from Democrats nationwide, demoralized Trumpers/divisions in the GOP, and incredible efforts by organizers outside the official party mechanisms. I guess the third of those things could pay dividends continuing into 2022. Certainly we will no longer have the trump fatigue to help.

FEtterman is probably my favorite politician at the moment. Love him, his wife, their dog, his weed flag.

I keep waiting for the "Fetterman actually sucks" take that must be out there somewhere, but on the surface he seems pretty cool. Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

2022 Senate:

Vacant Seats: PA, OH, NC (all three GOP)
Dem Incumbents: GA (Warnock), NH (Hassan), AZ (Kelly), CO (Bennet), NV (Masto)
GOP Incumbents: FL (Rubio), WI (RoJo)

Trump Fatigue alters the equation a bit

lol it won't in two years

And nothing makes me more pessimistic than hearing dems talk about the favorable map we have in 2022.

tipsy: beard but no mustache, come ON

Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

we should be prepared for Sen. Jim Jordan

If I had to make a guess, GOP holds onto the Florida and Wisconsin seats, democrats take one of the three vacant GOP seats, GOP take either the GA or the AZ seat.

Dems have won every statewide election in WI since Trump's election. they've been close but I feel like a good D candidate will probably win here, especially given what an unparalleled disaster RoJo has been

I'm usually overly optimistic when it comes to stuff like this but 2020 was looked upon as a horrible year by basically everyone and Trump & the Rs played no small part in that, if things are back to normal after 2 years of Dem rule I think that'll really boost their chances. not to mention every R Senator is gonna have to go on record as either betraying their party or their country and I can't see either being good for their electoral chances

I'm very interested in how the SLoP has set herself up. Independent, always there to humanize her partner, on the ground backing causes she cares about, beautiful and fashionable but also responsible, publicizes shopping in thrift stores, raises money by auctioning off her personal projects, managing soc meds for her spouse & herself & their family & building reach + image, always being gracious and grateful to constituents. I also am kind of waiting a bad take but I hope not, I hope they are just that great.

That Kellyanne Conway news is beyond the fucking pale

you know I've always wondered if these people are as horrible in real life as they are in their jobs

SLoP???

Second Lady of Pennsylvania. One of the many likable things about her is that she's embraced the acronym.

xps Back to normal is a tall order

Dems have won every statewide election in WI since Trump's election. they've been close but I feel like a good D candidate will probably win here, especially given what an unparalleled disaster RoJo has been

The issue is just that it's not clear who the candidate is. The only person who's declared is Tom Nelson, who I see no reason to think will be a good candidate -- he got stomped when he ran for Congress in the 8th district. There are actually a lot of people who could run who seem potentially good on paper but it's not easy to knock off an incumbent senator, even one with middling approval ratings, as Leah Vukmir found out.

it's not just middling, he's in the low 30s, and there's a chance he may not even run for re-election. and I don't think the Vukmir comparison really applies, Tammy is broadly popular here, I don't think she ever had a shot. I do agree there doesn't seem to be a decent D candidate in the field right now, though there are a lot of young aspiring Dems who may have a crack at it

I keep waiting for the "Fetterman actually sucks" take that must be out there somewhere, but on the surface he seems pretty cool. Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

one thing I really like about him is how he plays counter to so many of the Dem stereotypes - he's very affable and funny, and doesn't mince words nor does he come off like a policy wonk. I appreciated him getting on TV and saying straight up that the GOP was trying to steal the election rather than do the whole "well this is very concerning" routine. he seems 'real' in a way so many Dems aren't, minus "the Squad" of course, though the fact that he resembles the villain in a Schwarzenegger movie means he's gonna get bullied a lot less

my ray of hope is that every Dem in Congress has to understand that success in 2022 depends overwhelmingly on being able to run not just on "remember, wasn't the Trump era bad?" but specifically "look at where you are now versus two years ago." IOW they have to see that a robust and meaningful COVID recovery/stimulus package is the key. whether they act on this boldly or timidly is probably the biggest variable. this is not a time when you plan on winning out just by saying you're troubled by deficits or government overreach.

but --- and maybe this is really naive of me --- i have hope that the way this actually goes is, (1) a period of initial bummer vibes as the legislation takes too long to be implemented and Manchin types hem and haw and try to look moderate, then (2) the legislation is made to include more pork for those people's immediate constituents, and (3) all of a sudden the logjam breaks, they come up with some way to break the filibuster while pretending they didn't, blah blah blah, what's most important is going to their voters and saying "once again i've brought back real results for the people of X."

The last Marquette poll pre-election has Baldwin 44-36 approve disapprove and Johnson 38-36, and that's in a sample with Biden beating Trump 46-42; Morning Consult has Johnson above water at 41-35; where are you getting low 30s because that news would make me happy and I'd like to read it. (I would HOPE his approval rating is tanking after the last few months of nonsense, I just haven't seen it.)

lard it all up xp

I keep waiting for the "Fetterman actually sucks" take that must be out there somewhere, but on the surface he seems pretty cool. Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

Didn't he grab a shotgun and chase down an innocent black man when he was a mayor?

Unless Democrats can get the economy out of the shitbin, I don't see pickups in 2022.

This is how covid may play a big role. Again, who knows what we'll be facing in 2022, but I think it's relatively safe to assume that by 2022 covid will be in check, by way of vaccine, herd immunity, whatever, and with covid in check I don't see how the economy doesn't automatically start improving. Certainly, lack of covid shouldn't make it worse! Of course, it will be improving from a few different lows, and there are pervasive economic issues from the pre-covid era that need to be addressed, too, but barring (more) disaster I think the country will at least *feel* like it's on the upswing in two years. Of course, given our tendency toward dum-dummery, I can also see that convincing enough people to let down their guard and vote GOP again.

The man they caught up with was Chris Miyares, who was checked for weapons and let go when officers didn’t find any.

Miyares gave Mayo his account of the situation, saying he was jogging near Ben Fairelss School when he heard a car horn behind him.

“I pulled my sunglasses off and pulled my earphones out of my ear, and I looked up, and it was the mayor of Braddock,” Miyares said. “He jumped in his Ford F-150 and followed me into North Braddock and pulled a shotgun and aimed it at my chest.”

Miyares said he, too, heard what he thought was gunfire, but believes it came from a group of kids shooting off bottle rockets nearby.

“There were three kids in the parking lot where the Dumpster is by the library. They were just shooting off bottle rockets. I heard it when I was running up Parker (Avenue) and it kind of got me too until I looked up and saw colors,” he said.

The last Marquette poll pre-election has Baldwin 44-36 approve disapprove and Johnson 38-36, and that's in a sample with Biden beating Trump 46-42; Morning Consult has Johnson above water at 41-35; where are you getting low 30s because that news would make me happy and I'd like to read it. (I would HOPE his approval rating is tanking after the last few months of nonsense, I just haven't seen it.)

this has him at 35% and 32% in consecutive polls

https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2020/10/07/murphys-law-not-many-approve-of-ron-johnson/

though I do think he was very unpopular when he got re-elected, so who knows. I mean Scott Walker barely lost. That said I think not having the cult of personality around Trump is probably gonna hurt these guys somewhat

This is how covid may play a big role. Again, who knows what we'll be facing in 2022, but I think it's relatively safe to assume that by 2022 covid will be in check, by way of vaccine, herd immunity, whatever, and with covid in check I don't see how the economy doesn't automatically start improving. Certainly, lack of covid shouldn't make it worse! Of course, it will be improving from a few different lows, and there are pervasive economic issues from the pre-covid era that need to be addressed, too, but barring (more) disaster I think the country will at least *feel* like it's on the upswing in two years. Of course, given our tendency toward dum-dummery, I can also see that convincing enough people to let down their guard and vote GOP again.

― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, January 26, 2021 12:12 PM (twenty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I can think of a lot of ways it doesn't automatically start improving by what is basically 12-18 months from now. In fact I think it can get worse before it gets better. Shuttered businesses don't just magically reopen. There are also potential financial shocks coming, e.g. with the commercial property and commercial mortgage markets, although maybe the govt and fed are more ready to head off a crisis this time.

this has him at 35% and 32% in consecutive polls

https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2020/10/07/murphys-law-not-many-approve-of-ron-johnson/

Those are older than the Marquette poll I mentioned, and his disapproves in those polls are 31 and 36 -- I think it is pretty fair to say that he has consistently middling approval ratings (fav/unfav always within a few points of each other) and there are a lot of people who just have no opinion because let's face it he has been kind of a nobody for 10 years. I think he has actually made himself higher-profile since November in a way I'm not sure is to his benefit (I am certain Scott Walker suffered here from becoming visibly thirsty for national attention) But I would want to see more up-to-date poll numbers before I started seeing him as really unpopular.

Is Mandela Barnes interested in running / would he have a shot?

Dems need to get good-energy candidates out, Fetterman is a great example. I think GA has a better shot keeping Warnock in 2022 than if it had been Ossoff. The main thing I hold put hope for is that the GOP fails to untether itself to the MAGA cult, and judging by Hawley/Cruz sucking up to them during the vote certification, I’d say that’s a good shot.

Good question -- every time Barnes on stage with Evers it's plain who the more skilled politician is and it isn't Evers. There's a lot of interesting young Dems in the state -- Barnes, Mahlon Mitchell, Kelda Roys are a few off the top of my head -- but you just never know who can really do it statewide. You have to imagine Pocan might go for it, following the path Baldwin took to the Senate. If you forced me to pick somebody right now I'd think he'd have the best shot against Johnson.

Donald Trump’s campaign has sought to distance him from efforts to create a “Patriot party”, an idea the former president has reportedly toyed with since his election defeat... Trump was reconsidering starting a new party, after it was “gently pointed out to him” that “threatening a third party while simultaneously threatening primaries makes no sense”.

It makes sense to me! I fully support the fledgling Patriot Party in their efforts to dismantle the crushing hegemony of the two party system.

I'm frankly impressed some of you have the stomach to be gaming out the 2022 election already. I might need to get into basketball or something this year? I can't muster the psychic energy to surmount the dread this all makes me feel.

Isn't that basically what the tea party was, a "third party" that wasn't really a party at all, just a sort of insurgent movement within the party?

The main reason I don't have greater concern about it is his lack of discipline and long-term thinking. OTOH, as has been pointed out by innumerable thinkpieces, there's an opening for a more disciplined demagogue to run with his playbook. OTOOH as has also been pointed out, it's not just like a recipe you can follow. Candidates with a Trumplike effect on people are not easy to come by.

also i really believe the lack of discipline and general messiness of trump is a feature, not a bug, to his followers

a friend of friends dipped his toes into WI politics but got his ass handed to him by Rob Swearingen

Something I've been thinking for a while — the 2020 election ends up feeling similar in some ways to 2018. Obviously much less of a blue wave overall, but the same sense from a short remove that actually the election ended up looking better for Democrats two months later than it did on election night. A lot of that in this case is the Georgia elections, obviously, but also once all the noise settled down around the presidential election it looks like a plenty decisive victory (however close some of the individual states). I'm not exactly optimistic about either what can be accomplished in the next two years or how things look for '22 and '24, but ... I'm a lot more than I was in the second week of November when it felt like we'd barely escaped giving Thanos the final infinity stones but were still pretty well doomed.

I think GA has a better shot keeping Warnock in 2022 than if it had been Ossoff

def agree and wish their reelection schedules were reversed

Also helping Warnock is the fact that Kemp is up for re-election.

Rob OTM

Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

icwydtt

Kemp getting owned and Warnock being reelected would be beautiful

def agree but even so wish their reelection schedules were reversed

xxposts to self

Dems have won every statewide election in WI since Trump's election. they've been close but I feel like a good D candidate will probably win here, especially given what an unparalleled disaster RoJo has been

I'm usually overly optimistic when it comes to stuff like this but 2020 was looked upon as a horrible year by basically everyone and Trump & the Rs played no small part in that, if things are back to normal after 2 years of Dem rule I think that'll really boost their chances. not to mention every R Senator is gonna have to go on record as either betraying their party or their country and I can't see either being good for their electoral chances

― frogbs, Tuesday, January 26, 2021 11:08 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

what’s feingold up to?

but also once all the noise settled down around the presidential election it looks like a plenty decisive victory (however close some of the individual states).

true but a single half-point swing towards Trump would've given him the victory. what's so frustrating about this is that Dems have to consistently hit 53-54% of the vote just to break even thanks to the Electoral College, the unrepresentative Senate, and gerrymandering, and it sucks that we're facing five different crises in parallel otherwise they might be able to look into doing something about it

BREAKING: Biden to order DOJ to end private prison contracts as part of racial equity push https://t.co/376agiZ6Bd

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 26, 2021

um

i'm unable to feel good news but from a distance that looks like it rocks