Enough With The Cutesy Titles, People Are Dead: US Politics January 2021 pt 2

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McConnell didn’t get anything here. Manchin and Sinema said the same thing they’ve said before. Bringing them around to reform is and was always going to be a process that likely requires repeated GOP obstruction. McConnell picked this fight, lost and is now doing a little CYA. https://t.co/pq0qYmFK4C

— Adam Jentleson 🎈 (@AJentleson) January 26, 2021

What fight did McConnell pick and lose? I feel like I'm missing part of the context.

Attempted to block an organizing resolution for committees and power sharing unless democrats pledged to preserve the filibuster.

he let things proceed once sinema and manchin kissed his ring in public

i didn't realize asking raffensperger to "find" enough votes to overturn the election in georgia was part of the article of impeachment. i thought it was all jan 6 stuff. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/11/us/articles-impeachment-trump.html

awesome. fuckin needed to be in there

Attempted to block an organizing resolution for committees and power sharing unless democrats pledged to preserve the filibuster.

― Mr. Cacciatore (Moodles), Tuesday, January 26, 2021 12:35 AM (thirty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

(1) he got the filibuster preserved - why is that an L for him, because that would have happened anyway?
(2) how is a power sharing agreement an L for the party that doesn't have the majority?

Good questions! I wonder what the point of the power-sharing agreements are, especially since 2008.

and they aren't rhetorical questions. But I am a little concerned about dems' tendency to underplay a strong hand and then call it a win.

The U.S. Supreme Court dismissed two cases against former President Donald Trump Monday that alleged the president violated the Emoluments Clause by illegally profiting off the presidency, saying the cases are now moot as Trump has left the White House.

crimes are irrelevant if they happened in the past

weird coincidence that they only got around to addressing them a week or so after his last day in office, when it was clear on day negative 100 of his term that he would repeatedly violate the emoluments clause

So I can embezzle funds at work, quit, and then not be prosecuted since I'm no longer employed there. Good to know.

(1) he got the filibuster preserved - why is that an L for him, because that would have happened anyway?
(2) how is a power sharing agreement an L for the party that doesn't have the majority?

1. the filibuster was never going to be dropped as part of the organizing resolution. that wasn't either side's goal. schumer wanted to retain the option. mcconnell wanted a promise to preserve it. schumer got what he wanted. mcconnell didn't. he's relying on those 2/50 senators not changing their mind and no democratic pickups in 2022.

2. because he didn't get what he wanted from the agreement. (they do need an agreement btw. the dems don't have a majority either.)

As Paul Kane reminds us, these two headlines happened in the same year https://t.co/YAMemtxLai pic.twitter.com/oITF0pR1sR

— David Nir (@DavidNir) January 26, 2021

I heard a logical sounding argument about Manchin being less of a force of bad than the Republican who would be in his seat otherwise. Since that replacement would probably be actively seeking to do GOP evil instead of not doing egalitarian good or something to that effect. But at least it does mean there is a point that doesn't get reached to have a nominal Dem there.

Also wonder how Garland feels about McConnell after not getting onto Scotus.
A dish of cold revenge reopening the various scandals of a couple of years ago to full investigation would seem really appetising . Probably not entirely neutral or objective though. Hope that wouldn't be enough to stop him pursuing that line of enquiry though.

What earthly use is a Kirsten Sinema? Same source that was arguing there was some positive to Manchin considering the voting trends of his constituency was pointing out that she didn't have anything like the same environment so had far less reason for taking the stances she has.

seems like Kellyanne Conway posted a nude of her daughter Claudia that she'd stolen off the daughter's phone, then Claudia facetimed a friend so the friend could livestream Kellyanne calling cops to the house and requesting they section her daughter, after seeing Claudia posting calls for help in morse code on tiktok?

... Claudia Conway is a minor, fucking hell

Claudia has, over the latter months of 2020, posted footage of her mother verbally abusing her, hitting her, and actively trying to infect her with COVID. In twenty minutes of that livestream, Kellyanne's only & repeated maternal criticism of Claudia is that Claudia "is addicted to" the phone that she uses to broadcast calls for help.

(speculation not facts: the repeated "excuse me! (reframe)" indignant cutting-off tactic maps to Kellyanne's behaviour in press conferences, but in this context rings of hand-me-down abuse. her constant "that didnt happen" statements echo like alcoholism here, feeling a different tone to the ones she made in a formal capacity to the entire world about her government. but oof it all works similarly.)

Has Elizabeth Warren got a role yet. Or is she just fading into the background again.

That’s a good question, Stevolende - I *feel* like she’s up for something but it’s been a long three months and I barely remember now

Mitch folding on this one is good news. It's at least *conceivable* that when the filibuster conversation goes from being an abstract hypothetical to "the minority of republicans are blocking a huge COVID-relief/stimulus-package/also-btw-the-stimulus-includes-eight-hundred-infrastructure-projects-in-west-virginia bill," then there's still a shot at nuking the thing and the Dem majority getting shit done for a year and a half rather than just shuffling towards its own destruction while the country finishes collapsing.

In news that should surprise no one

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/01/25/959694007/at-least-38-capitol-police-officers-test-positive-for-c-o-v-i-d-19-since-jan-6-riots?utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1jjGCsCbb77wmM1gmJ7AEUS66YPrWVDgMasTSfkbTmvr7K5b2AsLPY83s

promises mean nothing in 2021 - do what you have to do today, reassess tomorrow

I agree that filibuster removal ostensibly still being on the table is a good thing but I’m not going to celebrate until it’s gone or until 10-15 Republicans get replaced by their good counterparts from an alternate universe

Regardless of the filibuster it is good that McConnell caved because until he did Republicans still controlled all Senate committees.

Yeah, and that exactly is the value of even useless Democrats in the Senate. Take away Manchin or Sistema and Mitch is still in charge.

it is possible that Manchin, Sistema and others would be amenable to filibuster *reform* which would give them cover and effetively end McConnell's abuse: either by lowering the threshold for debate from 60 votes—down to 40 or 50—or by requiring roll call votes for cloture, which would mean keeping R's present and forcing them to go on record

seems like Kellyanne Conway posted a nude of her daughter Claudia that she'd stolen off the daughter's phone,

This is insane. This is circulating child pornography, and a felony?!

there's no such thing as a felony if you're a powerful Republican

and never, ever any accountability

In fact, all things are justifiable - acceptable even - given the standing of the people involved.

I understand and agree with a lot of the arguments for prison abolition but I keep thinking “if we get rid of prisons altogether, what are we going to do about people like Kellyanne Conway”

Like, I am about 75% down the path of volunteering to be unfairly incarcerated if it means she would also be incarcerated

democratic pickups in 2022.

If Mitch blocks everything the Dems want to do between now and then, that provides them pretty powerful campaign leverage: "all these promises we made, all the things we want to do, Mitch is still blocking them all, so we need even more Dems in the Senate", etc. Also, knock on wood, but 2022 *should* be post-covid and, hopefully, recovering anyway, however slowly or feeble, which gives Dems something else to campaign on, too. "For years, Mitch and his cohort made sure none of the problems in America were addressed, now things are finally getting better but he'd prefer things be as they were before," and so on. But honestly it's hard to think that far ahead.

2022 Senate:

Vacant Seats: PA, OH, NC (all three GOP)
Dem Incumbents: GA (Warnock), NH (Hassan), AZ (Kelly), CO (Bennet), NV (Masto)
GOP Incumbents: FL (Rubio), WI (RoJo)

Has Elizabeth Warren got a role yet. Or is she just fading into the background again.

Lt Gov John Fetterman is going hard for that PA seat. Who is likely to be the GOP challenger?

awesome, that dude rules

Warren will not (and imo should not) leave the Senate without being able to ensure a D replacement. This has been clear for months. Wtf.

Change the climate in Massachusetts, then Warren will be free to take any role that suits her. Deservedly so.

FEtterman is probably my favorite politician at the moment. Love him, his wife, their dog, his weed flag.

I believe the question about Warren was re: Senate committees. (xpost)

Also add 2 years of covid risk to all these mummies:

Feinstein D CA - 87
Grassley R IA - 87
Shelby R AL - 86
Inhofe R OK - 86
Leahy D VT - 80
Bernie - 79
Mitch - 78
Risch R ID - 77
Cardin D MD - 77
King I (lol) ME - 76
Blumenthal D CT - 74
Some safe D trash 76-73
Mitt - 73

I spoke w/@nanwhaley, who is considering a run for the Portman seat, about OH & what Dems need to compete there

What do Ohioans need from Biden? "They need the rescue package."

Do they care about it being bipartisan? "No. No. They want it fast."

More --https://t.co/fr0fn95v6q

— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) January 26, 2021

Unless Democrats can get the economy out of the shitbin, I don't see pickups in 2022.

If I had to make a guess, GOP holds onto the Florida and Wisconsin seats, democrats take one of the three vacant GOP seats, GOP take either the GA or the AZ seat.

Xps to akm - OH, sorry, missed that in the scrum. Carry on.

To man alive I feel like Trump Fatigue alters the equation a bit (cf. Georgia - neither D candidate was a strong contender until the runoffs became a referendum on "sick of this shit" vs. MAGA.)

Georgia also depended on unparalleled enthusiasm and fundraising from Democrats nationwide, demoralized Trumpers/divisions in the GOP, and incredible efforts by organizers outside the official party mechanisms. I guess the third of those things could pay dividends continuing into 2022. Certainly we will no longer have the trump fatigue to help.

FEtterman is probably my favorite politician at the moment. Love him, his wife, their dog, his weed flag.

I keep waiting for the "Fetterman actually sucks" take that must be out there somewhere, but on the surface he seems pretty cool. Smart, funny, suitably gritty.

2022 Senate:

Vacant Seats: PA, OH, NC (all three GOP)
Dem Incumbents: GA (Warnock), NH (Hassan), AZ (Kelly), CO (Bennet), NV (Masto)
GOP Incumbents: FL (Rubio), WI (RoJo)

Trump Fatigue alters the equation a bit

lol it won't in two years