outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Longer-term effects of Covid infection look like being a public health crisis we'll be dealing with for a long time:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/18/almost-30-of-covid-patients-in-england-re-admitted-to-hospital-after-discharge-study

A total of 47,780 individuals who had a hospital episode between 1 January 2020 and 31 August 2020 with a primary diagnosis of Covid-19 were compared with a control group who did not have Covid-19.

Of the 47,780, 29.4% were readmitted within 140 days of discharge and 12.3% died. The rate of readmission was 3.5 times greater, and the death rate seven times higher, than those in the control group, the researchers found.

The risk of post-discharge illness – such as respiratory conditions, diabetes and problems with the heart, liver and kidneys – in Covid-19 patients was higher compared with the control group. That risk was also greater in younger and ethnic minority individuals compared with those aged 70 and above and white people.

I've been so irritated by the (very common) attitude that 'you're not going to die from it if you're under 60 so what's the problem'. The severity of long covid has been documented at least anecdotally for months but I haven't really seen specific large-scale data on it like this.

The USA will surpass 400,000 deaths by tomorrow. Officially. Since the tabulation always lags a bit, we are probably already there. Seems absolutely certain the US will lose more than 500,000 lives to this virus, no matter how fast they push out the vaccines.

And yet I bicycled through throngs of students today, not realizing that they actually are doing in-person classes at UPenn this spring. Absurd and scary.

Last time I take that route, for real

I just skimmed that paper and it seems like it compares people hospitalized with covid against matched controls who were not necessarily hospitalized, which makes valid comparison challenging

Remains the case that I’m pretty sure nobody I really know has had covid and I don’t even know of any friends of friends who have. The closest thing to a covid death in my life is the owner of a taco truck I used to go to dying early on.

half of my friends have had it and said it's pretty miserable.

I know some people who've had it. No one too close— but many of the people I am close with are taking pretty reasonable precautions all the time, and have been since the beginning.

Same. Miami's one of the few places in the country where you can eat outside in January and you'd be a fool not to, especially during this impressive run of cold fronts. I go to my local bookstore's cafe every Sunday and sit outside for hours.

I've had several friends and colleagues lose elderly parents and two close friends were down with coughing, shallow breathing and lethargy for a few weeks. Almost all were first wave, only one loss since the last big spike.

One of my dog walking neighbours had it over Christmas and it was a mild case, but her disabled brother a few streets away wasn’t so fortunate, and died on New Year’s Day.

Seems absolutely certain the US will lose more than 500,000 lives to this virus, no matter how fast they push out the vaccines

OTM.

A guy I know, who has been reckless since the pandemic began (and who also is anti-vax), actually got this first of two COVID vax shots 10 days ago (he is a healthcare worker and it was required so he could keep his job). He promptly got COVID this past weekend because he is a fucking moron and was being even more reckless.

We are going to hear more stories like this--people who assume tequilia-styled bulletproofness after getting the vax.

Reminder: after the first shot of Moderna, you are only 50% bulletproof until you receive the booster after 30 days. Then you are 95% bulletproof.

xps I've mentioned it before, but a friend had it, seemed not too bad, then went quite rapidly downhill and died. This was in November.

that’s terrible kinder. i’m sorry.

dandy don - good to see your name pop up :)

Hi Tracer--yes good to see you too :)

A older neighbor I talk to regularly just called to say she has COVID. She lives alone and has been basically indoors since MARCH, WTF?? She grocery shops, I think that's the only thing she goes out for. She's at home and okay so far, god willing she stays that way.

But what it makes me wonder is how I, and my family & pod mates, can be so lucky??! Multiple ppl are going to work, taking the subway, grocery shopping, etc. My sister works in a goddamn post office. Ugh. Let me go and take my Vitamin D just in case.

you might have gotten it and not known! still lucky though for sure.

xpost It's possible you and they had it and just didn't know, right? I barely had it last March, but I've tested positive for antibodies 6 or 7 times in a row since June, half as part of a study. I know a handful of adults that have had it (all mild/minimal symptoms, just for a couple of days), I know a few college age kids that have gotten it (again, mild or minimal symptoms). One of them was driven home from school the day before she tested positive, but she and her mom wore masks for the duration of the 4.5 hour drive and the mom (and the rest of the family) have all since tested negative multiple times while the daughter stayed in the basement. My older teen has one friend that got it, minimal symptoms. My younger teen doesn't know anyone that's had it yet.

I do know multiple people that I consider smart and responsible and careful that have made what I consider irresponsible decisions to travel, however responsibly they've done it. I find that very frustrating.

This includes my mom, btw, who is taking a trip to Yellowstone next week. Sounds like everyone involved is being as cautious as can be, except for the innately risky traveling at all part.

fwiw i am hearing fewer sirens in los angeles

the used waters in France are showing signs of another wave ramping up

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped?

So if this is true then that's all of 2021 lost due to the virus, I think.

Mum and dad have now both had their first jabs. Hooray! Dad is vulnerable and mum is over 70s.

Did anyone tell them they wouldn't actually be protected for another 2 weeks? Nope.

Did anyone have a rough idea when they'd have a 2nd jab ready? Also nope

xpost wtf, it's talking about people who have only received 1 of the 2 doses.

like after one dose, it's 52% effective, gee, wonder why people who only got one dose are still getting COVID

Mum and dad have now both had their first jabs. Hooray! Dad is vulnerable and mum is over 70s.

Did anyone tell them they wouldn't actually be protected for another 2 weeks? Nope.

Did anyone have a rough idea when they'd have a 2nd jab ready? Also nope

― Chuck_Tatum, Tuesday, January 19, 2021 5:05 PM bookmarkflaglink

:( that sucks, i'm sorry. usually the second jab is supposed to happen at the 3rd or 4th week following. so they didn't have a follow-up date available yet for them?

here's hoping one will materialize!

going back to that Guardian article, i'm not exactly panicking considering there's a lot of data missing from it. we have no idea how many of the recently infected had received no vaccine, 1 shot, 2 shots, how long ago the shots were administered, and when they might have contracted COVID.

considering COVIDs lengthy incubation period, someone could have actually contracted COVID a week and a half prior to getting their vaccine without knowing it.

the pfizer vaccine (used in israel) uses very different technology to the oxford one. but there's no reason to think the response to the pfizer vaccine tells you anything about the response to the oxford vaccine.

like after one dose, it's 52% effective, gee, wonder why people who only got one dose are still getting COVID

― Looking for Cape Penis house (Neanderthal), Tuesday, January 19, 2021 5:14 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

where is this number from? that doesn't seem to be true, looking at this figure from the original paper. the second dose was at 21 days, but clearly the vaccine is at or near full effectiveness before that second dose is given.

https://wp.technologyreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/PFIZER_CHART_NEW.png

one thing that could explain the israel result is people who had the first dose less than two weeks ago going around licking doorknobs and eating in phone boxes with other people. seems much more likely.

also the current wave in israel (and everywhere else) is worse than it was when the vaccine was being trialed, so of course you're going to get more cases unless the vaccine is 100.000% effective.

basically, i would ignore back of the envelope remarks from an army official in israel.

xpost wtf, it's talking about people who have only received 1 of the 2 doses.

― Looking for Cape Penis house (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 19 January 2021 bookmarkflaglink

There are concerns over here about how long it will take for everyone to get that 2nd dose, that ppl feel covered by the 1st, go out more often and get infected.

Reporting isn't extensive but what chuck is describing could be more widespread.

i would also ignore coverage of this stuff in UK newspapers tbqh. just absolutely dreadful basic errors in numeracy. i think most people in the UK instinctively know this and don't get too worked up, but i keep seeing americans forwarding stuff they've seen in the independent or whatever.

so what if you get 3 doses then? you're 99% protected?

Make it 4, 99.9999

This is numeracy, to me

the pfizer data clearly shows it is an almost perfect vaccine 14 days after the first dose. everyone in the study got a second dose at 21 days, so the study doesn't tell you what happens later if the second dose is not given. possibly it will stop working (unlikely) or attenuates (more likely). the pfizer data wouldn't tell you that. but they do tell you what happens for the first 21 days.

a lot of partially immune people is a great way of encouraging rapid viral evolution btw.

this is good btw (ignore the URL, it's about public health communication failures and how we're underselling the vaccines)

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/briefing/donald-trump-pardon-phil-spector-coronavirus-deaths.html

btw the world leaders in vaccination are israel, bahrain and these fuckin legends

I did a dive today into why West Virginia is so rapidly outpacing other states in their vaccine distribution and it turns out one reason is they did not sign the agreement with @cvspharmacy and @Walgreens that 49 other states did https://t.co/2jGoMJwWjQ pic.twitter.com/9oeKXYkCZJ

— Alex Leo (@AlexMLeo) January 15, 2021

here is this number from? that doesn't seem to be true, looking at this figure from the original paper. the second dose was at 21 days, but clearly the vaccine is at or near full effectiveness before that second dose is given.

The Guardian attributed that percentage to Pfizer - "Pfizer itself says a single dose of its vaccine is about 52% effective."

FYI, not sure if there are any other ilxors waiting for their stimulus checks, but our second round one finally showed up in the mail today. Again, no idea why it didn't go direct deposit like the first one, especially since we didn't change a single bit of info since then, but oh well. Just thought I'd share in case anyone else was still waiting.

glad to hear you got it!

the little I had left over from fixing that wall I smashed into I bought Iron Maiden stuff with.

next one, I'll probably pay down debt and help my folks with the rest

where is this number from? that doesn't seem to be true, looking at this figure from the original paper. the second dose was at 21 days, but clearly the vaccine is at or near full effectiveness before that second dose is given.

https://wp.technologyreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/PFIZER_CHART_NEW.png

one thing that could explain the israel result is people who had the first dose less than two weeks ago going around licking doorknobs and eating in phone boxes with other people. seems much more likely.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, January 19, 2021 5:30 PM (twenty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this figure is among those who have received both doses iirc, so a subset of all participants. can’t link now but the original data in NEJM are free, and 52% is what I remember I think

right, but from the NEJM paper:

Nevertheless, in the interval between the first and second doses, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2.

that's saying it's 52% averaged aross the three weeks between the first and second dose. clearly it's more effective than that once the first dose has kicked in. graph don't lie.

also one thing that I am surprised more public health thought leaders people have not mentioned is that the protocol allowed for deviations from the 21- and 28-day intervals. (for obvious reasons, I mean you can’t ensure that thousands of people all get their shots all on time.) you could get the second dose of moderna (the 28 day one) up to 7 days late iirc, pfizer I want to say was 3 or 5.

then again you’d be surprised how few of the people with the loudest opinions, even the good guys, actually read the primary literature, let alone the supplements where this info can be found

No one is doubting the vaccine or its efficiency in killing this pandemic off after the two doses are applied on enough of the population.

We don't know whether the population are getting two doses within the 21 days though. The report could be bad, but it is part of the ongoing story.

agreed.

i'm saying there's pretty good evidence that the report is flawed. for one thing, "Pfizer itself says a single dose of its vaccine is about 52% effective" is not true. and i get this is a newspaper article not an epidimiology journal, but you need to say more than "we had a lot of cases" to make quantitative statements about the effectiveness of a vaccine.

that said, i'm not super psyched for the big physics brain experiment the uk is running with spacing doses and creating partially immune people in the context of a virus that is demonstrably mutating.

Fair enough re: report.

We don't know whether the population are getting two doses within the 21 days though

what is the logic behind not giving patients the second dose within the 21 day window? is it so givts can argue they have vaccinated more people, when those people are actually only half-vaccinated? as caek says, surely this is encouraging viral evolution?

In the UK the government is following a strategy of getting as many the first dose as possible to offer some protection and so the second dose has been changed from 21 days to 12 weeks. The JCVI issued a controversial estimate that a single dose of, eg Pfizer, gives 92% protection which contradicts what Pfizer themselves say (52%)

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose