outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

biden has hinted at this previously but 100% should commit to invoking the defense production act to ramp up vaccine manufacturing

Since this is Biden, he'll actually end up only committing to 70% of it then.

Yeaaaah, seeing Biden trying to tamp down expectations for the vaccine already isn't making me feel any better. Undoubtedly it will get better, but seeing the "if necessary" qualifier added to his talk about the Defense Production Act doesn't thrill me.

I mean, if this pandemic doesn't make the DPA "necessary", what's the fucking point?

agreed, but i assume the problem with the DPA as written is the companies it applies to will sue the federal government if it's invoked and they might win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/nyregion/nj-vaccine-smokers-covid.html

🤦‍♂

ahhaha are they serious? ffs

this seems like a preview of what we're going to see when everyone is eligible https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-16/more-than-40-of-l-a-firefighters-still-unvaccinated

I wonder how much of that 40% is made up of the 25% who've already had it, thinking they don't need the shot if they've already developed antibodies.

cf

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/covid-vaccine-black-people-unlikely-covid-jab-uk

Ugh at that LAFD article.

Firefighters are on the front lines of the pandemic, with many working as paramedics and emergency medical technicians. More than 830 city firefighters — nearly one-quarter of the force — have tested positive thus far. Two have died, most recently Capt. George Roque, 57, a 22-year veteran.

i wonder if a quarter of them already testing positive affects things - the fallacious "i've already had covid-19, i'm immune now" line of hopeful thinking

Wonder if 25% of firefighters testing positive already has something to do with this

Yeah if 25% of them have already had it that has to make a difference.

i do wonder as well

but alas, there's no way to know

So many people have died in Los Angeles County that officials have temporarily suspended air-quality regulations that limit the number of cremations. Health officials and the L.A. County coroner requested the change because the current death rate is “more than double that of pre-pandemic years, leading to hospitals, funeral homes and crematoriums exceeding capacity, without the ability to process the backlog,” the South Coast Air Quality Management District said Sunday.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-17/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-update-pandemic

And meanwhile indoor shopping malls are open. Thank you for your leadership mayor garcetti and governor newsom.

Although there’s good news: positivity rate is down. Cases seem to have plateaued.

The bad news (well, good news if only half of people will bother to get the vaccine?!) is that the county estimates 1/3 of la county residents have had covid (10% that we know about, and a factor of three is a good rule of thumb to get actual infections from recorded cases, but they’ve done real modelling).

here (belgium) it looks like there's some panic Re: The British Variant suddenly breaking out in a couple of locations (2 school kids have it: whole school closed for a week)

+ everyone who gets out of the Eurostar is escorted to a mandatory testing location by police right now, otherwise nobody would do it

Not stating anything we haven't known for a while, but a sobering read nonetheless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/17/us/covid-deaths-2020.html

Longer-term effects of Covid infection look like being a public health crisis we'll be dealing with for a long time:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/18/almost-30-of-covid-patients-in-england-re-admitted-to-hospital-after-discharge-study

A total of 47,780 individuals who had a hospital episode between 1 January 2020 and 31 August 2020 with a primary diagnosis of Covid-19 were compared with a control group who did not have Covid-19.

Of the 47,780, 29.4% were readmitted within 140 days of discharge and 12.3% died. The rate of readmission was 3.5 times greater, and the death rate seven times higher, than those in the control group, the researchers found.

The risk of post-discharge illness – such as respiratory conditions, diabetes and problems with the heart, liver and kidneys – in Covid-19 patients was higher compared with the control group. That risk was also greater in younger and ethnic minority individuals compared with those aged 70 and above and white people.

I've been so irritated by the (very common) attitude that 'you're not going to die from it if you're under 60 so what's the problem'. The severity of long covid has been documented at least anecdotally for months but I haven't really seen specific large-scale data on it like this.

The USA will surpass 400,000 deaths by tomorrow. Officially. Since the tabulation always lags a bit, we are probably already there. Seems absolutely certain the US will lose more than 500,000 lives to this virus, no matter how fast they push out the vaccines.

And yet I bicycled through throngs of students today, not realizing that they actually are doing in-person classes at UPenn this spring. Absurd and scary.

Last time I take that route, for real

I just skimmed that paper and it seems like it compares people hospitalized with covid against matched controls who were not necessarily hospitalized, which makes valid comparison challenging

Remains the case that I’m pretty sure nobody I really know has had covid and I don’t even know of any friends of friends who have. The closest thing to a covid death in my life is the owner of a taco truck I used to go to dying early on.

half of my friends have had it and said it's pretty miserable.

I know some people who've had it. No one too close— but many of the people I am close with are taking pretty reasonable precautions all the time, and have been since the beginning.

Same. Miami's one of the few places in the country where you can eat outside in January and you'd be a fool not to, especially during this impressive run of cold fronts. I go to my local bookstore's cafe every Sunday and sit outside for hours.

I've had several friends and colleagues lose elderly parents and two close friends were down with coughing, shallow breathing and lethargy for a few weeks. Almost all were first wave, only one loss since the last big spike.

One of my dog walking neighbours had it over Christmas and it was a mild case, but her disabled brother a few streets away wasn’t so fortunate, and died on New Year’s Day.

Seems absolutely certain the US will lose more than 500,000 lives to this virus, no matter how fast they push out the vaccines

OTM.

A guy I know, who has been reckless since the pandemic began (and who also is anti-vax), actually got this first of two COVID vax shots 10 days ago (he is a healthcare worker and it was required so he could keep his job). He promptly got COVID this past weekend because he is a fucking moron and was being even more reckless.

We are going to hear more stories like this--people who assume tequilia-styled bulletproofness after getting the vax.

Reminder: after the first shot of Moderna, you are only 50% bulletproof until you receive the booster after 30 days. Then you are 95% bulletproof.

xps I've mentioned it before, but a friend had it, seemed not too bad, then went quite rapidly downhill and died. This was in November.

that’s terrible kinder. i’m sorry.

dandy don - good to see your name pop up :)

Hi Tracer--yes good to see you too :)

A older neighbor I talk to regularly just called to say she has COVID. She lives alone and has been basically indoors since MARCH, WTF?? She grocery shops, I think that's the only thing she goes out for. She's at home and okay so far, god willing she stays that way.

But what it makes me wonder is how I, and my family & pod mates, can be so lucky??! Multiple ppl are going to work, taking the subway, grocery shopping, etc. My sister works in a goddamn post office. Ugh. Let me go and take my Vitamin D just in case.

you might have gotten it and not known! still lucky though for sure.

xpost It's possible you and they had it and just didn't know, right? I barely had it last March, but I've tested positive for antibodies 6 or 7 times in a row since June, half as part of a study. I know a handful of adults that have had it (all mild/minimal symptoms, just for a couple of days), I know a few college age kids that have gotten it (again, mild or minimal symptoms). One of them was driven home from school the day before she tested positive, but she and her mom wore masks for the duration of the 4.5 hour drive and the mom (and the rest of the family) have all since tested negative multiple times while the daughter stayed in the basement. My older teen has one friend that got it, minimal symptoms. My younger teen doesn't know anyone that's had it yet.

I do know multiple people that I consider smart and responsible and careful that have made what I consider irresponsible decisions to travel, however responsibly they've done it. I find that very frustrating.

This includes my mom, btw, who is taking a trip to Yellowstone next week. Sounds like everyone involved is being as cautious as can be, except for the innately risky traveling at all part.

fwiw i am hearing fewer sirens in los angeles

the used waters in France are showing signs of another wave ramping up

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped?

So if this is true then that's all of 2021 lost due to the virus, I think.

Mum and dad have now both had their first jabs. Hooray! Dad is vulnerable and mum is over 70s.

Did anyone tell them they wouldn't actually be protected for another 2 weeks? Nope.

Did anyone have a rough idea when they'd have a 2nd jab ready? Also nope

xpost wtf, it's talking about people who have only received 1 of the 2 doses.

like after one dose, it's 52% effective, gee, wonder why people who only got one dose are still getting COVID