outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

well let's see how we do with an administration that doesn't consider it a hoax

We had one of those and iirc fuck-all happened

i seem to remember several hundred thousand people dying

oh I got confused I thought we were talking about climate change for some reason

Interesting thread on the UK variant, the dust is beginning to settle and basically I'm getting a sense that we didn't lock down early enough for long enough, that we didn't look at schools and so the variant has been made more of than it perhaps should've.

#COVID19 hospital admissions in London seem like they're continuing to fall

I was skeptical about the new variant story early on, here's a short thread in chronological order of things I wrote about ithttps://t.co/5OTD0vO2DF

— Joshua Loftus (@joftius) January 14, 2021

The crowded tubes and the huge amounts of people mixing indoors aren’t getting the blame they should (from government).

From a WGN article about Chicago's vaccine plans:

The city says the biggest problem its facing is not receiving enough vaccines.

“When I think about 600,000 people to vaccinate in that next phase, getting 36, 32, 35,000 doses a week isn’t going to be enough to move ahead quickly,” Dr. Allison Arwardy said.

This doesn't make me feel great. The "next phase" they are referring to is the 65+ older/essential workers phase (1B). So assuming 35,000 doses per week, it's going to take more than 17 weeks to get through that phase (assuming we ignore the second dose, for the moment). Considering this phase hasn't even started yet, we are looking at June before we even start to get to Phase 1C, which is other essential workers and high-risk folks under 65. We're in for a long, long, long ride.

Wow that sucks. Texas has already given 1M shots!

League tables for this here - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

congrats to california and the deep south

Georgia is really going to have to step it up to avoid relegation.

Two million deaths worldwide now according to Worldometers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

(although they seem to skew both higher and lower than various other tallies I've seen)

Re double-masking: I started doing it about 10 days ago. Don't notice any difference at all in comfort-level; I wear glasses, so still a nuisance, but I do feel safer.

(Prompted by the newer strain.)

https://www.theonion.com/fuck-everything-were-doing-five-blades-1819584036

🇫🇷🦠 #France will impose a nationwide 6pm #curfew for at least 15 days starting on Saturday to stem the spread of coronavirus, PM #Castex said.

A #Covid19 #vaccine will also be offered to those at high risk from Monday regardless of age.

France 24's @cfbennett2 reports ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/qCaYcsnfhz

— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) January 15, 2021

onimo I thought of that immediately as well LOL

God I don't think we will ever reckon with the mental health destruction this has wrought.

I struggled off and on, a ton, throughout 2020, but I'm flabbergasted by how much worse I feel now. Complete despair and hopelessness.

Sorry to hear that, jon. Don't ask me for a citation, but my general sense is that things are bound to get better from here on out.

Saw some hope that the current USA post-holiday spike has "perhaps" reached its apex.

I'm just struggling to find any good news. At least one new strain that is considerably more transmissible, exactly when we are opening schools back up around here. A complete failure of a vaccine roll-out which, at the current rate, will take more than 5 years to hit ~80% of the 16 and up population in my state.

It's not going to stay at the current rate

FWIW, we're about to have a new presidential administration that actually takes this shit seriously.

last two posts otm

Yeah, I get the despair, we are currently at our lowest point and it's horrible, but there's some very obvious reasons to assume that this will turn around over the next few months.

Hey, I hope so, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Is there a strong reason to doubt it? Vaccinations just started in the last month. It's been a mess but it's actually happening despite an utter void of leadership. Biden is coming in with an actual plan to manage vaccinations effectively and the manufacturers are ramping up production. It won't happen nearly as fast as we'd like, but this stuff is actually happening.

This could be a critical time, with some reasons to be hopeful

- at least some new restrictions potentially having teeth
- holidays over
- vaccinations proceeding (albeit slowly)
- in a lot of places it's still too cold to go do outdoor gathering / concert-type stuff

Well, I mean *gesturing wildly around at the last ten months*, yeah, there is a lot of reasons to doubt it. I mean, obviously having an administration that believes in science and cares about this stuff is very important and will make a tremendous difference. But it's not like waving a magic wand and the hour Biden is inaugurated, things will improve. It is more likely to take months to start by untangling the mess Trump made of everything before we can even start more efficient distribution.

Yes, that's why I said it won't happen as fast as we'd like, but there's a clear change in conditions that will improve things.

My work has sent round an email asking if anyone wants to be a volunteer at the medical research facility that's next door to us and is being used as a vaccination centre. The USP being that you'll be vaccinated youself if you volunteer - Pfizer (you'll also be vaccinated against Hepatitis B too). No-one I'm in contact with seems very enthusiastic.

There are a range of roles people can volunteer for, including marshalling, checking people into the FCI facility, looking after people awaiting their jab, and actually administering the vaccination.

Looking after people waiting for their jab? Must get working on my balloon animal skills.

krautrock song & dance routine

One thing to remember about the vaccine rollout is that once the most vulnerable are at least partially protected, the fatality rates should plummet. Unfortunately this might mean the likes of the UK government triumphantly telling everyone it's all over, but HOPEFULLY it won't be looking nearly as bleak as it is right now.

- in a lot of places it's still too cold to go do outdoor gathering / concert-type stuff

that's probably a negative, since people will just gather inside instead

as little faith as I have in government it seems apparent that vaccinating everyone as quickly as possible is the most important and helpful thing you can do so I don't doubt the incoming admin is going to be taking this seriously. worth mentioning that the vaccine itself only got approved like...last month?

(xp) I obviously wouldn't mind getting the vaccine but I very much doubt I have the bedside manner to reassure some old dear worried about getting the jab.

I just know I'd make some badly formed joek about it having microchips in it and this snowballing to an embarrassing degree

... or Bill Gates. Hard to resist tbh.

there's some very obvious reasons to assume that this will turn around over the next few months.

more money will be forthcoming. vaccine manufacture will run at capacity. weak spots in various state programs will be identified. the amount of direct federal coordination and assistance will increase. the big problem is states are stretched so thin they are always playing catch up as events continually run ahead of them.

(xp) I obviously wouldn't mind getting the vaccine but I very much doubt I have the bedside manner to reassure some old dear worried about getting the jab.

― Waterloo Subset (Tom D.), Friday, January 15, 2021 1:33 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

you could read them ILX posts!

biden has hinted at this previously but 100% should commit to invoking the defense production act to ramp up vaccine manufacturing

Since this is Biden, he'll actually end up only committing to 70% of it then.

Yeaaaah, seeing Biden trying to tamp down expectations for the vaccine already isn't making me feel any better. Undoubtedly it will get better, but seeing the "if necessary" qualifier added to his talk about the Defense Production Act doesn't thrill me.

I mean, if this pandemic doesn't make the DPA "necessary", what's the fucking point?

agreed, but i assume the problem with the DPA as written is the companies it applies to will sue the federal government if it's invoked and they might win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/nyregion/nj-vaccine-smokers-covid.html

🤦‍♂

ahhaha are they serious? ffs

this seems like a preview of what we're going to see when everyone is eligible https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-16/more-than-40-of-l-a-firefighters-still-unvaccinated

I wonder how much of that 40% is made up of the 25% who've already had it, thinking they don't need the shot if they've already developed antibodies.

cf

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/covid-vaccine-black-people-unlikely-covid-jab-uk