We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

It just gets worse: 3127 new cases today in QC. We'd never hit 3000 before.

Ontario was over 4,000 yesterday (~3,300 today). St. Marys, where I am, went from 8 cases before Christmas--all long since resolved--to 20 in two weeks. This piece echoes my own feeling, that a lot of this is tied in with the more transmissible new variant, which is probably out there in large unreported numbers.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/uk-variant-dominant-strain-ontario-february-1.5866296

At least Ford is keeping schools closed. Perhaps Legault will have no choice but to back-pedal.

As always, it's also worth keeping in mind that Ontario's population is currently 14.57 million, whereas Quebec's is 8.85 million, so proportionally you guys are doing… fine-ish. Approximately 1,500 of our new cases are in Montreal – that's like 500 more than Toronto. Anyway, it all goes to show how ineffective the CAQ has been on this front.

Yeah, percentage-wise, a big difference. I was doing the same math with active cases in St. Marys, and even though we're doing better than Toronto, we're suddenly not doing all that much better.

Tbf when comparing apples and oranges, percentages are only useful up to a point. I mean, San Marino currently has the highest number of deaths per 100k pop, and Lichtenstein holds the #6 spot…

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

ya, i wouldn't use "fine" to describe Ontario. we seemed fine in the late summer/fall and then the numbers started getting, what i would consider, out of hand again.
i had a trip up to a cottage that was planned over a month ago and i might have to cancel now and i am actually having a hard time coping. been stuck in my house for almost a year.

I said fine-ish... proportionally. I agree that things aren’t looking great on your side of the border either.

im sure legault/CAQ are responsible to some degree, but i think a lot of the reason it’s so bad in quebec relative to any other province is because of individual behavior (and maybe factors like a particularly cold and humid climate). aside from the maritimes Quebec’s policies were as strict as any other province. you could say they botched the rollout and timing, but like compared to alberta which was laissez-faire and had way lower cases, it’s clear that can only explain so much

What does ‘individual behaviour’ mean here, exactly? Rowdy Latins vs stuffy Angles and Saxons? If so, England would like a word with you.

The fact that it first blew up here is definitely a factor, as was pointed out upthread. But there are limits to that explanation over nearly a year.

What are the health care and LTC systems like, comparatively?

Problematic “individual behaviour” is stuff like people just thinking it won’t happen to them, so they visit friends, share cars, etc. I know people still letting their kids have sleepovers!

Not meaning to speak for flopson, but that’s how id interpret it

But is that likely to be more widespread in QC than other provinces?

Anglos serious francos pas sérieux amirite?

imo the real problem is that none of us have any idea

The way Quebec's health establishment has used Haitian and African first wave immigrants as crash test dummies, the way they are going to force homeless people out of shelters by 9h30 despite imposing a 8pm curfew... they are just so many non-sensical blunders, if you add an absolutely terrible elder health care, the poor numbers are inevitable. I don't know how other provinces compare, I haven't paid attention to their restrictions and actions, but I am not surprised we have the results we do here.

absolutely terrible elder health care

This is a huge one, and all successive governments are to blame. My understanding is that Ontario is also quite lacking in this department, but doubtless not to the same extent. I haven't looked into the exact details, however.

On an unrelated note, the spelling error in the official alert we just received is vmic for our dumbass government.

(Franchement Pom, la seule raison pourquoi c'est parce qu'on a beaucoup trop de français mais je sais pas si les gens ici seraient prêt a l'entendre sans y voir quelque chose de plus sinistre)

lol, blague à part, les Français dans mon entourage (ma femme y compris) sont parmi ceux qui prennent ça le plus au sérieux depuis le début de la pandémie. Mais là je te parle de ceux qui habitent ici – en France même, c'est une toute autre histoire et elle est pas mal plus exaspérante…

Good news for me though: according to the English version only citizens are under curfew

If on top of that you don't live in the city, you're 100% golden.

What does ‘individual behaviour’ mean here, exactly? Rowdy Latins vs stuffy Angles and Saxons? If so, England would like a word with you.

― pomenitul, Saturday, January 9, 2021 2:50 PM (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

how else would you explain alberta having way lower cases per capita despite having less strict measures? even ontario as noted isn’t as bad in per capita terms and has been similarly strict

i think the high number of deaths in elder care facilities are squarely the government’s fault. but general spread of cases... idk, i think behaviour plays a part. i live in bc now and it’s definitely relevant that the culture prior to covid was that no one has friends or does anything social ever, except occasionally going outdoors on weekends

Check this out:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_Quebec_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_Ontario_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_British_Columbia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-01-05_CA_Alberta_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Premier Doug Ford has issued his strongest warning yet in the pandemic, saying a tougher lockdown is coming amid ever-rising records in new COVID-19 cases and “scary” new computer modelling projections to be detailed early next week.

I guess the idea is to scare everyone straight. It's working on me.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2021/01/08/when-you-see-the-modelling-youll-fall-off-your-chair-doug-ford-issues-strongest-covid-19-warning-yet.html

Those stats are interesting. I’m unsure whether the residential mobility numbers being up means that more people are moving between residences or staying put in the same one though. Hopefully the latter. I’m probably personally to blame for a small part of the +7 for hiking in halton parks, but that’s literally been the only place I go besides to get groceries. If they institute a curfew here, sadly, it will not affect my current habits at all.

I don't think hiking in parks is an unsafe activity?

Unless you're in the midst of a static mob of strangers, it's as safe as it gets short of not leaving the house. Being outside is generally fine as long as you observe physical distancing, and if you're on the move, it's even safer.

That is the assumption I’ve had, and why I’ve been doing it. I did read an article in the star the other day that gave me a bit of pause, but going forward I’ll be even more careful to avoid other hikers - https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/01/04/the-risk-of-covid-19-spread-outdoors-is-higher-in-winter-than-in-summer-an-expert-explains.html
It’s easy to see in those stats how people in some of the other areas haven’t had the same option, so I can really believe that mental and physical health is suffering unequally.

If we trust corporate optimism as any kind of indicator, I did notice yesterday that Cedar Fair has just added job postings for all the seasonal positions at Wonderland (just north of Toronto, for non locals). They didn’t open at all in 2020 I believe.

My industry his started hiring like mad again after a bruta spring/summer

(xpost) I read that piece too--found it discouraging, but I just can't stop going out for twice-a-day walks. (I was stuck inside all yesterday for a variety of reasons and felt terrible when I woke up today.) It's pretty easy where I am to keep lots of space around yourself when outside.

i live in bc now and it’s definitely relevant that the culture prior to covid was that no one has friends or does anything social ever, except occasionally going outdoors on weekends

― flopson, Sunday, January 10, 2021 3:01 AM (fifteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

it's speculation, but vancouver/bc numbers are on the rise at a lower rate possibly due to more mask compliance, right?

like you said, weather-wise, people do stay inside in bc, but our winters are not as brutal, so people still get out more compared to montreal/quebec, and being outside reduces spread for sure

here is a cool graph that some devs did on a ctv article (it's from august, but it was updated and pulling in data from this month):

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-in-the-u-s-how-do-canada-s-provinces-rank-against-american-states-1.5051033

it's from the csse at john hopkins university github repo:

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

count difference between quebec and alberta aren't as bad now

low mask compliance (due to whatever reason, probably cultural/political, sure) would also account for saskatchewan being in the top 3

there was a discussion in the states whether more efforts should be put into better air filtration as opposed to surface sanitation, which i think was worth considering, but it's probably too expensive and too late now

Went for a long hike yesterday near Seattle and was pretty horrified by how few people on the trail were wearing masks or making any attempt at distancing. I did my best to hold my breath as I was passing people, but when you've got a group of six maskless people sauntering down a narrow trail past you, and they're all talking, there's only so much you can do.

it's speculation, but vancouver/bc numbers are on the rise at a lower rate possibly due to more mask compliance, right?

It's been mandatory in all indoor public venues since July 18 in Quebec (November 24 for BC).

sure, but what are the compliance rates? it's a hard thing to measure, but it's probably worth looking into

BC's relative success was discussed earlier in the thread. I don't think sheer strictness in and of itself was really one of the reasons given.

I can't remember the last time I saw someone without a mask at the grocery store. Actually I can: it was the day the measure came into effect.

You get fined if you don't, it's as simple as that.

This was from the summer; d/k if things have changed: https://globalnews.ca/news/7085828/bc-coronavirus-strategy/

I did my best to hold my breath as I was passing people

This is something I asked about way near the beginning of the pandemic, and to this day, I'm still clear about it. From the Star article Kim linked to above:

Winter versus summer is an important distinction. In hot humid air, droplets settle quickly to the ground and COVID does not survive long. In cold dry air, droplets evaporate rapidly, leaving COVID airborne as well as alive for much longer.

How long is "much longer"? My worst fear has always been that when I'm out walking, I walk into some space where someone else coughed three minutes earlier. They're not there, or even close anymore, but those evaporated airborne droplets are. My assumption has always been that if the droplets weren't gone, the infection rate would have long since been 100%. But that's all I have, an assumption.

Still unclear, that is.

Before the mask thing came in in BC in November most people didnt wear masks in stores and even now next to nobody wears them outside. Yet our numbers have never been crazy.

Can never really understand why we're a comparative success story

Have LTC homes been better managed? They account for the majority of deaths in ON and QC. This seemed significant:

In Quebec, massive outbreaks in long term care facilities contributed to the province’s high case numbers and death rates, Buckeridge said. Policies like allowing staff to work at multiple facilities just facilitated the virus’ spread in vulnerable populations, he said, and it was allowed for a long time. B.C. issued an order in March to stop this, although it took some time for the practice to end.

In ON, privatization of LTC has been a disaster:
https://canadatrends.ca/news/84390/for-profit-long-term-care-homes-once-again-seeing-significantly-worse-outcomes-in-ontario-s-second-wave-star-analysis-finds
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/11/18/long-term-care-fiasco-a-warning-about-private-ownership.html

It just gets worse… again:

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1762250/soins-intensifs-debordement-covid-quebec-hopitaux-delestage-opatrny

Several QC hospitals are now at capacity and patients are being transferred to other regions. And this is on top of all the non-elective surgeries, cancer screenings, etc., that are being postponed. I maintain that re-opening schools is a huge mistake in light of our current circumstances. Kids themselves are not at risk, but if they do catch it, they pass it on to more vulnerable individuals, further burdening our already enfeebled health care system.

Ford's new modelling reportedly says Ontario ICUs will be beyond capacity by February.

The school call is so tough. I really believe the best solution is to move teachers up the priority list for vaccines. Obviously, front-line workers, seniors, and vulnerable groups first. Give it to grocery store employees next. After that, I think teachers should be among the next to get it. It's the risk now vs. long-term fallout, and they're both terrible options--I know kids are resilient, but I believe the fallout will be very real. I'm thinking back to a couple of students of mine who I still see when I supply: one who's in grade 5 now and can't read, and another with vision issues plus ESL and academic issues on top of that. They were just barely hanging on before this; online for the rest of the year, and I can't see them ever recovering. They'll hopefully find their place after they leave school, but the next few years will be hell.

I really believe the best solution is to move teachers up the priority list for vaccines.

It would have been a decent start, but Legault suggested that it won't happen before April or May.

If that's the timeline--I'm sure Ontario's the same--no, it won't make a difference.

As far as I know, this is Ontario's vaccine timeline. It mentions no priority status for teachers at all: https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-implementation-plan-en-2020-12-11-v3.pdf