Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-18/the-world-s-cfos-have-a-dire-message-for-real-estate-investors

“That’s the key rationale for buying real estate. Most landlords are in effect pension and insurance funds and ultimately that’s who is going to be paying for it,” said Adrian Benedict, head of real-estate solutions at Fidelity International in London. “If the whole central tenet of security of income is undermined through this crisis, you are storing up a world of trouble.”

Individual security rests on the strength of the social contract far more than the premise that rentier income is inviolate.

commercial real estate investors getting fucked over should have been priced in for a while imho

then again WeWork

ding ding ding

This is wild

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/penny-stock-zomedica-jumps-250-after-someone-paid-netflix-star-carole-baskin-299-for-a-mention-225328904.html

(particularly since the Signal story at the end is wrong - Elon Musk tweeted about it on Thursday, the wrong stock went up, Signal tweeted that it was the wrong stock on Friday and the stock went further up)

stock market is a shell game shocker

lmao https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-22/gamestop-tug-of-war-gives-reddit-army-a-win-on-record-volatility

So, Elon Musk-esque stock shenanigans?

they're just trying to get to the secret boss

People have been playing Gamestop for a year. It's an entire thing that that article does not really touch on.

You mean the "mob" has been holding long since beginning of 2020?

not the entire "mob" but it's been a lot of people in and out waiting for the short squeeze but also long shares because it was undervalued. I've been in since around Sept. and i felt late, there were already activist investors in it before then. But yeah there is *one guy* who is pretty well known, who has been holding since early 2020, late 2019 with a huge position. I don't really want to say here where it started and where it's at, but he's still holding.

It's interesting... I really don't see how GameStop will defeat the new generation, with makers pushing digital only consoles. at the very least there should be a huge decline in preowned game sales, and I don't think merch can make up for it. But this year has really proven that it's all bullshit anyway, I suppose

oh wait, i just doublechecked, he was in by mid 2019 at least, before the big short, Dr. Burry guy got in. I start paying attention in Oct it looks like.

Hi Yerac!!

Hi silby, do a drive-by at the scampo shop on your way home.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/93wgvv/people-are-so-so-mad-at-gamestop-investors-and-fintok-influencers
i like this paragraph:

"Here's my strategy in a nutshell,” Chad says in the video. “I see a stock going up and I buy it and I just watch it until it stops going up. And then I sell it and I do that over and over and it pays for our whole lifestyle.” In a follow up video, Chad told the tens of thousands of people accusing him of giving bad advice that they should “suck a butt” and said that he would now create a channel called Crappy Wall Street Advice to actually give advice and grow his profile from it.

tl;dr:

• Chad
• I see a stock going up and I buy it and I just watch it until it stops going up
• suck a butt
• Crappy Wall Street Advice

People who have figured out how to live

If you’re so stupid then why aren’t you rich

Lol

We make money the old fashioned way -- we suck a butt

Strong Beyonce/Ed Sheeran vibes from that video.

i don't watch fintok or youtube videos but the entire language of it all has slowly seeped into my real life- talking about my wife's boyfriend and "sir, this is a casino."

sometimes i get vague foma from stonks and all the people who are apparently getting money from it but i'm pretty sure i would hate it and be terrible at it.

this GME shit is tempting though 🚀🚀🚀

Maybe I'm late to the party, but the part where Robinhood makes money by selling share flow to Citadel is pretty America Classic.

Step 0: Citadel pays Robinhood for order flow. Citadel gets to see RH's orders a few milliseconds before they're filled. Citadel may choose to front-run some of those trades.

Step 1: RH's customers and WallStreetBets start manipulating $GME. This is happening in the open.

— Toxic (@toxic) January 26, 2021

share order

(whole thread is good)

this is it, this is the shit that is going to permanently jokerfy me, I can sense it

Can someone explain to me why we are not in the midst of or very soon headed for a commercial property-induced financial collapse? Is it just that the fed already has everything risky on its own balance sheet?

Other shoe hasn’t dropped yet. Office space leases are long. First-floor businesses haven’t all given up the ghost. Some people are going to want to get back to the office bc they’re sick of their dang kids. Etc. Will certainly be a shock to Seattle’s economy if the downtown weekday population never goes back to what it was.

Definitely worried for NYC

But also wondering what happens to the economy and financial system when all the CMBS underlying all those properties go bad. And why there isn't greater concern about that now.

lol was this revive inspired by my stock market thread post?

i thought silby was just going to go brrrrr.

NYC already suffering obviously and unpleasantly from rent blight in commercial storefronts, at least in my recollection of my last walk in lower Manhattan a couple years ago, so I can well imagine upsides to the oncoming shock.

Depending on specific property types (construction stuff) -- it could be not that cost-intensive to convert these office buildings into housing. Easiest would be SRO type with the individual offices becoming bedrooms and probably adding additional bathrooms which would be shared among tenants. Open areas could be additional eating and living spaces, or childcare facilities.

I’ve read that with big towers where all the systems are in the shaft it’s not really plausible to build enough bathrooms to make those floors into housing.

sadly that makes sense

xp -- depends on the size of the tower? And how many people you can have share a bathroom. Probably additional lines would need to be run ... or pipes removed and replaced with wider ones. One of the positive things about downtown type office towers, is that they tend to be closer to infrastructure like large water & sewer lines that are necessary to run showers, laundry, kitchens, etc.

Also the environmental benefits of dense housing close to public transit ... a lot of these office buildings have nice windows, so you can meet the light requirements for housing (i forget whether Title 24 is just California or is based on a national/International code) ... these buildings also tend to have really good climate control systems as well. Also elevators ... so this could work well for meeting ADA requirements.

i feel like the american economy is very much in the wile e coyote running on air phase
why i am looking to buy an apartment at this time is anyone's guess. i think i am a rube.

Don't know if this is a broader economic indicator or just a shitty business going under, but I'm seeing rumors that the entire Fry's chain and online store is shutting down at midnight tonight

xp whether or not some commercial buildings can be converted I somehow doubt it's going to save the commercial property market. In no way crying any tears for any owners or banks, just worried about the shocks that may result from defaults.

Last time I was in my local Fry's, about a year ago, its immanent demise was so obvious they could have blared it from loudspeakers. Shelves were poorly stocked, the staff was bored and few, customers also few. It was desolate.

xp -- yeah, I doubt very many biz and government people are going to make an effort to convert these dumb office buildings into affordable housing or homeless shelters or anything useful like that.

News came out today about this 12-theater movieplex closing in downtown Evanston, near Northwestern and just north of Chicago. It was built 23 years ago with shops and restaurants around it (including a 3-floor Borders, closed forever ago). An estimated 1.5 million people visited that area each year because of the multiplex; the whole area was built around it.

Anyway, it felt like a sign of what's to come, with core tenants not renewing leases. Every time a bar or restaurant or store announces their closing, I assume it's because their lease is up and there's no point in renewing, unless they luck into having a benevolent landlord.

Can someone explain to me why we are not in the midst of or very soon headed for a commercial property-induced financial collapse? Is it just that the fed already has everything risky on its own balance sheet?

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, February 23, 2021 9:42 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

why do you think this is going to happen? i think the panic on this was mostly ginned up from lobbyists for the hotel industry being good at their jobs. i guess it depends on if people resume shopping and staying at hotels after the pandemic in, which in the US is only a couple months away at this point so we’ll find out soon

one thing I've taken away from the last four years is no one knows what the fuck is going to happen

people with money will be fine until the stock market bubble pops, which has probably been delayed thanks to the stimulus? at least that's a prevailing theory