There is no reason for a 19-year-old on a last-place team to go over 100+ pitches in a start after a full season of minor-league work.
― David R. (popshots75`), Sunday, 28 August 2005 17:07 (eighteen years ago) link
― Dustyyy Bakeeer (Leee), Sunday, 28 August 2005 17:24 (eighteen years ago) link
MarinerDan (SF, CA): Joe, what is your best prediction for the career path of Felix Hernandez? What's the upside and what is the downside?
Joe Sheehan: I think he'll be one of the five best pitchers in the AL for his next 50 starts or so, then miss some non-trivial amount of time to an arm injury. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Monday, 29 August 2005 15:15 (eighteen years ago) link
VERSUS RANDY JOHNSON!
MOJO DOJO!
― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 13:30 (eighteen years ago) link
Lots of great quotes in this one:
In the seventh inning against Kansas City, he had a hint of trouble with runners on first and third, two outs and a 3-2 count to Mark Teahen. Catcher Yorvit Torrealba called for a fastball. Hernandez shook him off. Torrealba called for it again and Hernandez shook him off again. "I thought, 'O.K., this is interesting,' " Torrealba said. Hernandez came in with an 84-m.p.h. changeup, striking out Teahen.
"I've caught other young guys before and all they want to do is throw their fastball because that's their best pitch and they can locate it," Torrealba said. "But this guy, for 19 years old, man, that's nice. He's acting like he's been around for a long time."
― d4niel coh3n (dayan), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 15:30 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 17:18 (eighteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 17:23 (eighteen years ago) link
And yet he still looked pretty good against the Yanqs, his K:BB trend is definitely regressing but WHIP remained solid against one of the most dangerous offensives in the game.
I think I'm gonna go see him on Labor Day.
― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 1 September 2005 03:52 (eighteen years ago) link
It was nice of Sterling to jinx Da Unit's no-no, tho - after the bottom of the 5th, he announces that RJ has a no-hitter, and RJ gratiously allows a double in the 6th. Smooooooooth.
― David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 1 September 2005 04:06 (eighteen years ago) link
― Jimmy Mod Loves Alan Canseco (The Famous Jimmy Mod), Thursday, 1 September 2005 04:12 (eighteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 1 September 2005 12:05 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 01:17 (eighteen years ago) link
-- gygax! (gygax0...), August 22nd, 2005 3:38 PM. (gygax!)
So not only did Bruce Chen outclass King Felix last week, but (as feared) he only lasted 3 innings against the Rangers in Arlington. Can he rebound? I hope so, I took a lot of pix of him in Oakland warming up!
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 20 September 2005 03:30 (eighteen years ago) link
― jergins (jergins), Thursday, 22 September 2005 00:02 (eighteen years ago) link
― Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Thursday, 22 September 2005 01:02 (eighteen years ago) link
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 22 September 2005 01:44 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 28 September 2005 23:17 (eighteen years ago) link
Hmm, how delightfully unnecessary.
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Wednesday, 28 September 2005 23:24 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 28 September 2005 23:43 (eighteen years ago) link
http://flickr.com/photos/70149262@N00/sets/72057594085666437/
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Sunday, 19 March 2006 19:11 (eighteen years ago) link
Shin splints will prevent El Rey from missing his last start of the Spring.
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 28 March 2006 21:26 (eighteen years ago) link
― Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 29 March 2006 01:57 (eighteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 29 March 2006 13:05 (eighteen years ago) link
Rob Neyer: (3:33 PM ET ) Sure: he's fine. He made a couple of lousy pitches last week, and on Sunday he gave up two unearned runs that weren't his fault at all. His strikeout rate is excellent, his control's been okay. He's not going to win any awards this season, but I like him just as much today as I did a month ago.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 18:47 (eighteen years ago) link
― TINSTAAPP can eat a dick (popshots75`), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 18:59 (eighteen years ago) link
Homeruns vs. Batters Faced:2005: 1.5% (5/328)2006: 6.0% (4/67) [The great 2006 home run explosion?]
Pitches per Plate Appearance:2005: 3.712006: 5.97 [Neyer: "his control's been okay". you got that right Robbay!]
BB/9:2005: 2.452006: 3.97 [see above]
Strikeout to Walk ratio:2005: 3.352006: 2.60 [sure his strikeout rate is up but walk rate is up even more]
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS allowed:2005: .203/.263/.283/.5462006: .375/.478/.625/1.103 <=YOWZA! probably the most shocking of all the stats IMO
Groundballs vs. Flyballs:2005: 149/45 = 3.312006: 19/14 = 1.36 [ :_( ]
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 19:29 (eighteen years ago) link
is Felix Hernandez your Dontrelle Willis this year, Steve?
― Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 19:41 (eighteen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 19:55 (eighteen years ago) link
He's not walking too many more batters (maybe one or two more per start compared to last year) but hitters are being a lot more patient with him (taking more pitches) and getting in better swings (hitting more balls in the air). Then again, he's faced some really strong offenses so far this year. Anyway, don't waive him in your fantasy league or anything dumb like that.
― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 21:38 (eighteen years ago) link
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 21:50 (eighteen years ago) link
Recommendation: "This is a kid who throws 97 [mph], with movement," one scout said. "Why is he throwing the No. 8 hitter a change, curve, change? With his stuff, he can blow guys away. It's the best way, if you can do it. And he can do it." Generally speaking, Hernandez used his curveball as his outpitch last season after first setting up hitters with his fastball. He seems, at times, to be working backward from that formula this year. If that is indeed the case, it is easily corrected.
Total bullshit, but post-worthy.
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Friday, 28 April 2006 21:12 (eighteen years ago) link
― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 28 April 2006 21:54 (eighteen years ago) link
― ALLAH FROG (Mingus Dew), Sunday, 30 April 2006 05:08 (eighteen years ago) link
Mariners Notebook: M's look for signs of Felix tipping pitches
Orioles appeared to guess right too many times
By JOHN HICKEY, P-I REPORTER
BALTIMORE -- Is Felix Hernandez tipping his pitches?
The Mariners aren't sure, but they are concerned that opposing hitters may have spotted something to tell what the next pitch is going to be.
The possibility arose during the five innings Hernandez pitched Saturday night in Camden Yards. He gave up four runs and eventually got the win as Seattle rallied for an 8-6 victory. At the same time, he put 13 men on base and was in constant trouble.
"The answer is that we don't know," manager Mike Hargrove said Sunday. "We were talking about that last night. It sure seems like they took a lot of close breaking pitches.
"And they were right on breaking pitches when it wasn't a breaking pitch situation. It got us wondering."
Orioles hitters were right much of the day on fastballs, too, seemingly more than random chance could account for.
Pitching coach Rafael Chaves said that if Hernandez is tipping, it's not something huge. But like at a professional poker table, even a little tip can be a big advantage to the other side.
"I saw some things that had me wondering," Chaves said. "It was nothing so blatant that you could see it right away, nothing where you could say that's the reason why they did so well against him."
Part of the trouble is that the best way to tell if a pitcher is tipping his pitches is from the batter's perspective. You can't see everything from the dugout. And the video of Hernandez from Saturday's game was exclusively from behind him, looking in at the hitter.
"It's easier here in the big leagues for hitters to pick up something the pitcher might be doing," Chaves said, "especially with all the technology available. We'll be looking at whatever we can. I've got some video work ahead of me."
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Monday, 1 May 2006 20:45 (eighteen years ago) link
― jonathan quayle higgins (j.q. higgins), Monday, 1 May 2006 21:00 (eighteen years ago) link
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Monday, 1 May 2006 21:08 (eighteen years ago) link
yes
― jergins (jergins), Monday, 1 May 2006 23:46 (eighteen years ago) link
Felix HernandezWins: 1Losses: 3ERA: 5.06WHIP: 1.61K: 28BB: 12
Livan HernandezWins: 1Losses: 3ERA: 5.49WHIP: 1.50K: 25BB: 9
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 3 May 2006 20:44 (seventeen years ago) link
― c(''c) (Leee), Wednesday, 3 May 2006 23:24 (seventeen years ago) link
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Wednesday, 3 May 2006 23:33 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 10 May 2006 02:40 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 10 May 2006 02:54 (seventeen years ago) link
― jergins (jergins), Wednesday, 10 May 2006 07:11 (seventeen years ago) link
Scott (seattle): what's up with felix?
Joe Sheehan: I watched every pitch of his last two starts, because I was wondering about that myself. (Caveat: I Am Not A Scout) As best as I can tell, he's having major location issues both in and out of the zone. So he's falling behind in counts and then catching more of the plate than he wants to. His HR and walk rates are way up; so is his BABIP.
I don't think there's anything permanently wrong with him. His velocity looks fine to me, as does his movement. He's just going through what 20-year-old pitchers--hell, 30-year-old pitchers--sometimes go through.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 10 May 2006 19:10 (seventeen years ago) link
F. Hernandez (L, 2-5) 4.0 11 10 5 2 4 2
― jergins (jergins), Wednesday, 17 May 2006 06:04 (seventeen years ago) link
― ALLAH FROG (Mingus Dew), Wednesday, 17 May 2006 07:10 (seventeen years ago) link
― jergins (jergins), Wednesday, 17 May 2006 15:32 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Monday, 22 May 2006 16:15 (seventeen years ago) link
― jergins (jergins), Monday, 22 May 2006 17:31 (seventeen years ago) link
The three most important indicators in [evaluating FH] are strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball percentage--and PECOTA has dead-on nailed Hernandez’ performance in each of those categories. The key differences are in the number of base hits that he’s given up, and the number of home runs.
Hernandez' BABIP on the season to date is .359. That’s the sixth-worst performance in the league among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. Although groundball pitchers give up a few extra base hits, that performance is way out of line with what we’d expect out of Hernandez, and almost certainly reflects his bad luck. It’s not like Hernandez is a Carlos Silva type who throws meatballs and telegraphs his pitches.
The inflated home run rate is a bit more of a concern--Hernandez is at nine home runs and counting before Memorial Day, when PECOTA projected him to give up just 11 on the entire season. But it’s much less of a concern than it would be if Hernandez’ groundball ratio had deteriorated with his dinger tally...
What does all of this mean? Well, it means that Hernandez is behaving like a 20-year-old pitcher with all of five months of big league experience to his name. I think opponents are reading the scouting reports and recognizing that, while Hernandez is not averse to throwing breaking balls early in the count, he rarely throws them for strikes. I think Hernandez has such great stuff that he’s never had to make many adjustments. And I think he and Rafael Chaves will sooner or later come up with the necessary counter-adjustments, whether it means making his slider a bit more of a strike pitch, throwing more first-pitch fastballs, or something else.
In short, I think Felix Hernandez is going to be fine...If [he] were a stock, his share price might have declined by six or eight percent since the start of the season--not more than that. No, I wouldn’t trade Felix Hernandez for Cole Hamels. Justin Verlander--that might be a different story.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 26 May 2006 16:37 (seventeen years ago) link