A New Thread fot the Current Israel/Palestine/Lebanon mess

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk.

there's no justification for the rocket attacks, but again unless there's something i'm missing, why would anyone in their right mind settle in this part of israel knowing the history?

It's more that if anything it will push the Lebanese government back towards the Syrians.

xpost

or the Lebanese people back to the pro-syrian parties.

Another thought is that syria starts bussing over veterans of Iraq if it (or Assad) feels threatened). Israel should be very reticent about invading southern lebanon it's going to be a lot worse than last time. Terrorist/Geurilla tactics have been taken to another level since the IDF last marched through Lebanon.

no, it isn't.

ihttp://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/maps/is-map.gif

israel is a young country, despite the thousands of years of oppression of the jewish people. i don't see it being quite comparable to the hundreds of years and years of institutional racism and slavery that conjured up the new orleans' milieu. people choose to move to israel. and yeah some people choose to move to new orleans, but a lot of the victims of katrina were people who had never been anywhere else in their lives, and had no way to escape - not to mention a government that would actually evacuate them like the israelis did with gaza.

xpost - i'm not talking about haifa, since afaik that's a new development with the hezbollah's new missle.

Hezbollah having the Katyusha rocket is not a new development at all though. Is there some other *new* missile that I missed in the reports?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunder_1

The fog of war begins to set in, I guess.

most of which, to be fair, did not take place in the Middle East nor was it instigated by Muslims. Prior to this whole horrible-misapplication-of-a-colonialist/zionist-fuckup Jews had it pretty good in the Middle East, at least compared to how they were treated in Europe.

Not for want of trying.

the epic of human history in one sentence!!!

Hezbollah's rocket attack on the port city of Haifa was its deepest such strike into northern Israel yet. No injuries were reported in Haifa, home to 270,000 residents and a major oil refinery 30 miles south of the border. Still, the Israeli ambassador to the United States, Daniel Ayalon, called the attack "a major, major escalation."

"Those who fire into such a densely populated area will pay a heavy price," said David Baker, an official in the Israeli prime minister's office.

and how is beirut not densely populated again?!??

being Prime Minister of England vs. 6 million dead

What's the endgame for the Israeli government? Because it sure look like they want to create the next generation of suicide bombers, hezbollah recruits and generally a whole lot of people who think they're cunts. Cos they're acting like them.

Hurting - is there anything where you might conceivably concede that the Israeli government have acted in a slightly regrettable way?

x- post - Letting in party with armed wing vs having entire government as political wing of army in a militarised state C/D?

Uh, try reading like half my fucking posts on this thread.

Do you mean to suggest that that's how Israel's government operates? I suggest some basic reading:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel#Government

By Lin Noueihed1 hour, 56 minutes ago

Israeli jets struck Hizbollah's southern Beirut stronghold on Friday hours after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ordered a more intense retaliation against the Lebanese guerrilla group's capture of two Israeli soldiers.

Israel bombed bridges and roads in the Shi'ite Muslim suburb and a fuel storage facility at the Jiyyeh power plant outside the city, shortly after a series of Israeli raids forced the closure of a highway linking Beirut to Damascus.

Israel's decision to ramp up the attacks came at a meeting of security chiefs after a day in which Israel blockaded Lebanese ports, struck Beirut airport and two military airbases, and attacked bridges and houses in the south as well as a bridge leading to the country's only international airport.

The attacks virtually isolated Lebanon by air, sea and land.

"The decision was made to intensify Israel's operations in Lebanon," Army Radio quoted political sources as saying.

Israeli air strikes and shelling have already killed at least 55 Lebanese civilians since the two soldiers were captured in a cross-border raid on Wednesday. It was not immediately clear if anyone was killed in the latest strikes, which shook Beirut residents from their beds, but television footage showed residents helping others wounded by debris. Fire fighters fought in vain to get a raging blaze at the Jiyyeh plant under control.

Barrages of Hizbollah rocket fire into northern Israel have killed two Israeli civilians and wounded 95.

Two of the missiles hit the port of Haifa on Thursday in an attack Israel blamed on Hizbollah and described as a "major escalation," since Haifa lies over 30 km (18 miles) from the Lebanese border. Hizbollah denied it fired on Haifa, Israel's third-largest city, and no one was injured in the attack.

In total, Israel said Hizbollah fired more than 120 rockets at towns and villages in the north on Thursday, causing panic.

HOARDED SUPPLIES

Food and drink flew off shop shelves in Lebanon as families fearing tougher days ahead hoarded supplies. Beirut restaurants and shops remained mainly closed and tourists fled, while fears of an escalation shook Lebanese and Israeli financial markets.

Planes had dropped leaflets in Beirut suburbs and some southern cities urging residents to stay away from Hizbollah offices, witnesses said, a move that raised the possibility that Hizbollah's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, could be targeted.

Flames and smoke could be seen rising from the southern suburb of Beirut, where Hizbollah is headquartered, but it did not appear that the group's major facilities were hit.

The military offensive coincided with a major Israeli incursion into the Gaza Strip to retrieve another captured soldier and halt Palestinian rocket fire.

Israeli troops fired a tank shell at a vehicle in Gaza on Friday, killing a Palestinian, Palestinian medics said.

The threat of a similar Israeli ground offensive into Lebanon to prevent the rocket fire gained currency after the Haifa strikes, although the military remained tight-lipped.

The violence is the fiercest since 1996, when Israeli troops still occupied southern Lebanon, and fears are rising it could spread to Syria, which backs Hizbollah along with its ally Iran.

In Tehran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned Israel not to attack Syria, saying such action would be considered an assault on the whole Islamic world that would bring a "fierce response," state television reported.

BUSH VOICES CONCERN

President Bush, on a visit to Germany, voiced concern about the fate of Lebanon's anti-Syrian government, but offered no direct criticism of the punishment Israel meted out.

"Israel has the right to defend herself," he said.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, also speaking in Germany, urged Israel to exercise restraint but demanded that Syria put pressure on Hizbollah to stop the attacks on Israel.

Syria's ambassador to the United States urged Washington to restrain its ally Israel and push for the resumption of peace talks amid escalating Middle East violence.

The European Union and Russia criticized Israel's strikes in Lebanon as a dangerous escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Lebanon urged the U.N. Security Council on Thursday to adopt a resolution demanding a ceasefire and end to Israeli attacks, rejecting Israel's insistence it was acting in self defense.

The Security Council was to meet later on Friday but the United States has already vetoed a council resolution put forward by Qatar on behalf of Arab states that called on Israel to immediately end its military incursion in Gaza.

With stocks down, currency pressure up and trade and tourism virtually still, ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned that it might downgrade Lebanon's debt ratings amid escalating violence.

Israel has rejected Hizbollah demands that it release Arab prisoners in exchange for the captive soldiers but says it fears they could be spirited to Iran. Iran dismissed such fears.

(Additional reporting by Nadim Ladki, Alaa Shahine and Laila Bassam, and Jerusalem bureau)

If we're talking 1000 years ago then Jews in Muslim countries (incl. Moorish Spain) did very well for themselves, reaching the highest levels of civil government. And yes, in Europe things were much, much worse for the Jews at that time, and for centuries afterward.

This has nothing to do with anything happening today. Some Muslim countries still treat their minority cultures according to 14th century standards, whereas Europe has ... well, let's say they've progressed a bit in this regard. The fact that 1000 years ago, the Jews were better off in the Middle East than in Europe isn't a mitigating factor in the least. I have no idea why some people like to bring it up as a point of comparison when discussing contemporary politics.

And it bears mentioning that there were plenty of pogroms in the Middle East as well as in Europe during the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries.