rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

(federal prosecution, that is)

Only if its not actually him writing it

Not gonna lie ... these last couple weeks, I've been feeling the fear

There are still some unknowns. The election is still a year away. Trump has yet to choose his VP candidate and I bet he/she will be an absolute freak, not a reassuring dullard. One or more of the candidates could die. I’m kind of hoping both Biden and Trump kick the bucket and we can have the Whitmer Wave we deserve.

Yeah. It seems completely insane that it’s even a possibility, and I don’t put a lot of stock in current polling. But. As I said to a friend, show me the last incumbent with the kind of approval/wrong track ratings Biden is at who won re-election.

remember this clown has been off mainstream tv screens apart from some silent court footage/photos for the last year and a half or so. once he starts talking again it will go south

Biden would absolutely lose to any of these bozos-- Hailey, Christie, maybe even Vivek. Trump, though--I'm not so sure.

once he starts talking again it will go south

I mean, letting him talk all over every network constantly back in 2016 didn't exactly hurt him.

I don't feel the fear yet. Polls have been increasingly unstable since 2016.

it did tho, ultimately. and once people remember how shitty everything was

the weird thing is kennedy and cornel west combining for around 20-25% in a lot of these polls. where are those voters gonna go?

don't remember starting this thread

I'm retired from knowing what's going to happen in the future

xp
wow really? I'm stupefied people even know who West is / that he's running

ha yeah i saw a poll with west polling at 6% (i will try to find it) and thought to myself "i thought kanye ruled out a run in 2024"

oh it was the quinnipiac poll that just came out: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11012023_uomg47.pdf

xpost Kennedy is pulling a lot more than West-- 19/6% in the Quinnipiac poll. I don't think a lot of the Kennedy fans are Democrats.

Biden would absolutely lose to any of these bozos-- Hailey, Christie, maybe even Vivek.

this greatly downplays how much people despise Chris Christie

xp lol I wonder if some poll respondents were thinking "this dumb-dumb pollster pronounces Kanye 'corn-ell'"

Kennedy popularity not much of a surprise at this stage I guess *big sigh*

one should never underestimate the widespread lack of attention to or interest in an election that's a year away among average ill-informed US voters. I'm guessing a high percentage of people expressing interest in Kennedy know nothing about him other than his name. Trump's numbers are pretty secure, but nothing else about polls can be relied on right now.

it's been a while since an independent candidate polled anywhere near 20%

The fear is mainly stemming from the last few weeks’ worth of lefty voter mutuals vowing to sit the next election out over Biden’s Israel-Hamas response. I know the election is a year away but I’m inclined to believe them.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

The fear is mainly stemming from the last few weeks’ worth of lefty voter mutuals vowing to sit the next election out over Biden’s Israel-Hamas response. I know the election is a year away but I’m inclined to believe them.

― Dwigt Rortugal (Eric H.),

I refer you to this point in 2019 and the 2020 primaries.

xp - I can sympathize with the impulse. The pathology of the US political system often produces self-harmful behavior regardless of how one votes or abstains. This quandary applies with far more force if one is not a member of an automatically privileged and protected group.

Fair point, but in this case the relative harms are pretty obviously disproportionate.

As I said to a friend, show me the last incumbent with the kind of approval/wrong track ratings Biden is at who won re-election.

Obama actually had similar job approval numbers as Biden at this point in his first term. The difference is that there was a lot more movement in those numbers back then: Obama had a negative approval rating in late 2010, was back to positive in early 2011, then negative again in late 2011. Whereas Biden has been stuck below 45% for over two years. (Of course, that's also perhaps a sign that approval ratings aren't as meaningful as they used to be, since partisan polarization is baked in.)

just don't have the energy to stress about things a year out anymore.

I’m kind of hoping both Biden and Trump kick the bucket

For sure since Biden started cheerleading war crimes.

in this case the relative harms are pretty obviously disproportionate.

and that calculation will most likely prevail, but for now the sharp pain inflicted by Biden's highly reactionary statements and actions is causing a justified recoil among Americans who identify as arabs or muslims, so that privileged white lefties are mostly showing solidarity by such talk.

When the election comes around in a year, if arab-americans or muslim americans can't bring themselves to vote for Biden, I wouldn't condemn them for making that judgment. By contrast, white lefties need to realize that the value of performative solidarity should be outweighed by the substantive solidarity of not imposing a racist, fascist authoritarian on all those who have the most to lose.

The fear is mainly stemming from the last few weeks’ worth of lefty voter mutuals vowing to sit the next election out over Biden’s Israel-Hamas response. I know the election is a year away but I’m inclined to believe them.

Which states do they vote in? And did they vote Biden last time out? I feel like state polling in the handful that matter is a better indicator than national polling. In terms of Arab-Americans would it be Michigan where it would most likely have an impact?

it just gets a little hard to believe that Biden and the Democrats will be the steadfast bulwark against fascism given the events of the last couple weeks. Feels awfully bleak to have the choice between the people cheering on the massacre and the people looking on with a sad expression while handing over the weapons.

Biden doesn’t just cheerlead war crimes-this fuck DID vote for the Iraq War. I wish hell existed for every single American politician who did the same. He’s always been a hawk piece of shit

Yeah, well, I'm used to abysmal foreign policy from our presidents; Biden's had a rather good run, better than Obama's at this point.

Domestically, that is.

By contrast, white lefties need to realize that the value of performative solidarity should be outweighed by the substantive solidarity of not imposing a racist, fascist authoritarian on all those who have the most to lose.

Welcome to the UK

it just gets a little hard to believe that Biden and the Democrats will be the steadfast bulwark against fascism given the events of the last couple weeks. Feels awfully bleak to have the choice between the people cheering on the massacre and the people looking on with a sad expression while handing over the weapons.

― JoeStork,

The average voter, including Dem voters, is simply not paying attention enough, and many of them are conditioned to vote for Israel. Not hard to believe.

white lefties need to realize that the value of performative solidarity should be outweighed by the substantive solidarity of not imposing a racist, fascist authoritarian on all those who have the most to lose

"It's your moral responsibility to vote for the genocide enabler because that's not happening here."

xp it seems like the polls that have been conducted show a solid majority in favor of a cease-fire.

Can we not acknowledge that Biden is in a bit of a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation? Like, I find it hard to believe that he is willingly cheerleading war crimes. But what other stance can he take that will not be weaponized extremely effectively by the GOP as antisemitism? I feel like they are waiting for the slightest misstep that they can mischaracterize and blow out of proportion. If we are saying, he should take the right stand no matter what the consequences are for his re-election, and he should potentially torpedo his chances for reelection in the name of doing the right thing and taking the correct stand here- that may be the truth of it. But the calculation here is that he needs to be re-elected in order to make any sort of forward progress for 4 years, rather than allowing Trump to win and become evil dictator for life. I’m sure Biden’s feeling here is “why did this have to happen now?” kind of like Trump’s reaction to the pandemic. The difference being that Trump willingly caused the deaths of thousands or millions of Americans in his refusal to accept reality with regard to domestic health affairs, whereas Biden is just not making the correct sounds in response to a catastrophe that is happening elsewhere, and it is unclear how much leverage he would actually have to create better outcomes if he were to try to do better.

As American president, Biden wields enormous power and influence; that's why the international press has breathlessly followed every lurching step re Israel the last month. I actually don't think it would've cost him much to condemn Israel for its barbarism. I might be wrong.

Iraq War and 9-11 aside, though, we're not used to deciding presidential elections on foreign policy, which I'm sure his most cynical advisors count on.

it's not an easy situation but actively suppressing the use of "cease-fire" or "de-escalation" in communications, and dismissing the civilian casualty statistics was honestly worse than i expected from him.

I don't see how you can wave away him saying the death count was exaggerated (xp)

I'm not? I don't think the majority of the Dem base gives a damn. What should give Biden pause are the announced defections of Muslim voters in Michigan.

That’s fair, Alfred. And maybe he’s playing it too “safe” and potentially exacerbating the crisis rather than helping reduce the humanitarian impacts. I have no answer for that and I hate what is happening and wish there were a cease fire and an end to civilian casualties and suffering. I guess I would ask, after our 9/11 response, how seriously would the world take us if we preached restraint in response to a horrific terrorist act?

As American president, Biden wields enormous power and influence; that's why the international press has breathlessly followed every lurching step re Israel the last month.

I don't actually think the first part of this sentence is true. Other countries got pretty used to saying "fuck what America thinks/says, we're gonna do what we wanna do" between 2016 and 2020. Trump diminished American influence by a lot, and Biden's had to cope with that. And Netanyahu in particular doesn't give a single fuck what any politician with a D next to their name says about anything.

I guess I would ask, after our 9/11 response, how seriously would the world take us if we preached restraint in response to a horrific terrorist act?

Depends by what you mean by the world, but I actually think more seriously than you might think! Especially if it was delivered in a "look, we've been here and we chose the wrong path, learn from our mistake" way

Nuance gets you nowhere these days. Even a fair representation of reality gets you nowhere. All that matters anymore is the perception of reality that can be created by those who would weaponize absolutely anything against “the other side”.

Headline: BIDEN SAYS AMERICA NOT GREAT: HAS MADE MISTAKES, IS NOT AN EXAMPLE TO FOLLOW IN WORLD AFFAIRS

I think 'the world' would be pretty psyched to have an American President preach killing fewer people.

see: Obama getting a Nobel Peace Prize just for not being W and saying he would have voted against invading Iraq

Maybe, I still think there would have been value, internationally, in a more measured response from Biden. I think the response does matter and would have been taken differently, and seriously.

This really does depend on which parts of the world you're talking about, but certainly in terms of Ukraine Biden and by extension America's stock has improved (though depends on where you live)