SB 51: the California politics thread

it would suck if both 15 and 19 failed, because of what you'd mentioned earlier re praxis and Prop 13.

Man I am cheesed off with the SF Elections site — they’re still not posting anything on their results page.

well whatever state precincts reported in the past couple minutes made some good choices ... hope they keep it up

Alameda County is very pro-15 and pro-19 and anti-22

NBC in LA is calling for Gascon.

Still no reported results for SF! What the heck.

california props looking like a bloodbath. about the only things going right are 17 and 20

Finally they're posted for SF -- nearly all the city propositions passing with the exception of the youth vote one, pity; absentee voting probably won't change any numbers. Two-thirds of the city voted, pretty cool.

More importantly, Kanye received 817 votes, but even more importantly, Brock Pierce got four and Jesse Ventura six.

Kanye did better in Alameda County fyi

God these proposition results are the worst

At least the horrible Prop 20 lost.

The Golden State is full of good liberals who don’t want to pay a fair price for their property taxes or a taxi ride, will cry about homelessness but not build any housing, and will lament the sorry underfunded state of our schools and then work to make more charters.

— Susie Cagle (@susie_c) November 4, 2020

lots of those people aren't liberals though ... like ... idk ... don't get me started on her. Her heart's in the right place, but ...

The part about homelessness, I agree with, but we didn't really have any housing measures on the ballot. Alameda County voted to approve a sales tax increase that would partly go to homeless services, even though sales tax is regressive, but Susie doesn't seem to be talking about that. The charter school issue is contentious, and I'm not going to go there, plus, we didn't have any charter school ballot measures this year.

But she just kinda doesn't get it. Idk. I get frustrated with a lot of progressive friends who seem to just not grasp why people don't vote the way they should, as well as various nuances and complexities that speak to stuff like intersectionality and the complex coalition that is the left in California.

It isn't about paying a fair price for their property taxes. It's the concern for small business owners who the ads said would be hurt by Prop 15. That one really played to concern for the working class. Some of the mailers even mentioned that family farmers would be hurt, even though farm property would be exempt from the tax increase. (Though it would probably have some effect on farmers because it would probably apply only to certain farm structures and be dependent on % use ... but ... that was overall a misleading ad.) This is the "why good liberals voted against it" rationale.

There are plenty (at least about 4 million, based on the number of Trump voters in CA) of non-liberals who probably voted against Prop 15 as well, but Susie isn't concerned with them. The Republican assholes are free to vote their Republican asshole platform free of specific shaming by the likes of Susie C. I don't know if Susie is also demonizing the suburban centrists who wouldn't necessarily call themselves "liberals" but definitely hate Trump. (Hi mom!)

And we went back and forth about Prop 19 ... whose major opposition was the conservative Howard Jarvis people ... and Prop 19 appears to be winning. So idk what Susie's beef is there.

And the taxi ride thing ... again, the Republicans and centrists most likely voted for Prop 22. Are those people voting based on the cost of a taxi ride? I would bet they are voting against government regulation and are sold on the concept of the gig worker having autonomy and the omnipresent ads definitely helped convey that.

Also I realize it is ironic that I am criticizing Susie here, narc of small d style, over her criticism of "good liberals" -- another narc of small d criticism.

Also, if Susie really wanted to sell me on her progressive cred she wouldn't say "build housing" but instead say "build affordable housing" because there is plenty of market rate housing being built in cities and exurbs but it's laughably out of the price range of most people, and does very little to solve homelessness.

i think her point in that tweet is that 65% of californians think of themselves as liberals, but a lot (most? more than on the east coast?) are ... actually not. there's this *huge* anti-tax nativist streak here among what passes for mainstream liberal politics that i had been fortunate enough never to have encountered until i moved here. it exists elsewhere but it's the baseline here.

it's incredibly demoralizing because at least the anti-tax/anti-services nativists elsewhere don't act like they're on my side.

there is plenty of market rate housing being built in cities and exurbs but it's laughably out of the price range of most people, and does very little to solve homelessness.

SF at least underbuilt for decades and hasn't nearly caught up.

there's this *huge* anti-tax nativist streak here among what passes for mainstream liberal politics

I don't think it's accurate to call it "liberal" though -- definitely mainstream, for sure. And I think you are experiencing the CA brand of liberalism that tends to be more progressive on social issues compared to the rest of the country, but are more fiscally conservative than people in other parts of the country with comparable views on social issues.

i mean ... yes? that's the tweet.

I just don't think there was sufficient messaging on most of these propositions by the parties that we likely wanted to win. 16? I never saw a single billboard, received a piece of mail, NOTHING. This should have passed. No organizations were pushing it. 15? messaging pro 15 was weak and did not adequately address the scare-lies coming from anti-15. Likewise, 22. Autonomy to most people means 'if you don't like that, don't work for those people." TBF, lots of people who work as drivers absolutely do like the arrangement they have. It's going to be some time before those workforces organize, if ever.

again it's semantics and it's relational -- liberal relative to stereotypical southern racists and conservative christians that refuse to make cakes for gay people. Other parts of the country are older and have much stronger traditions related to supporting unionized labor. California doesn't have that as much. I really appreciate your outside perspective even though I know I get defensive about the state my family moved to in the 1860s to escape militant racist assholes in Missouri.

i mean ... yes? that's the tweet.

besides the part where it seems to miss the point about why moderate voters didn't vote a "liberal" (as you and Susie define it) agenda?

It isn't like there's a "Liberal Morals Clause" that people have to agree to in order to self-describe as liberal in certain contexts.

Idk I feel like this is echoing the discussion on other threads about the term "Latinx"

This is turning into a no true Scotsman thing.

My point (and what I understand to be here point) is that a state California is extremely fiscally conservative given it’s a state that voted 65% for Biden and the things it’s fiscally conservative about are particularly gross.

Anyway, sorry in advance for blowing up the thread, but it is interesting to look at the ballot measure results by county and see which counties are closest to the state results. So far, the close ones I've noted are San Diego County, Ventura County, and the closest NorCal one is San Benito County (where I grew up right across the county line but politically is closer to my home town than Santa Clara County where my town is at the southeastern edge). These are not places that people tend to describe as home to good liberals.

When I think of "particularly gross" and Ventura County, fiscal conservativism isn't the first thing that comes to mind ... San Benito County had an assemblymember for quite a while who people were quite fond of because he used his observations of the behavior of his livestock to argue that homosexuality was wrong because unnatural. ... The fact that these people might have voted for Biden is more a pleasant surprise than an act of political betrayal.

maybe her post is based on actual people she knows ... I'm trying to be charitable here.

congrats la

https://laist.com/elections/2020/results/district-4-los-angeles-city-council-nithya-raman-david-ryu.php

NBC in LA is calling for Gascon.

Nice.

maybe her post is based on actual people she knows ... I'm trying to be charitable here.

― sarahell, Wednesday, November 4, 2020 5:07 PM (six hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

you're overthinking it. the voters of the state of california voted for biden by 30 points and simultaneously voted down most of the progressive ballot measures. i don't think you have to look at individual county returns to understand what she's getting at.

I understand what she's getting at to read, "there are so many hypocrites in California" whereas I would argue in the case of many voters, that is not the case because Biden doesn't represent "liberalism" and in the case of "liberal" voters the reasons she cites are not the reasons they voted down the particular measures. ... Again, unless she's thinking of specific people or referring to some other text that I don't know about.

in the case of "liberal" voters the reasons she cites are not the reasons they voted down the particular measures.

why did self-identifying democrats vote against these measures?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nFvhhCulaw

Looking at individual county returns is instructive though -- like, who did vote against these measures? Orange County did, but I don't think she's talking about Orange County. There are the counties I mentioned that are not particularly liberal which reflected the state results: San Diego, Ventura, San Benito. The point being -- there are plenty of conservative and centrist voters who are going to vote against progressive measures and we would need more support from liberal and progressive voters to exceed their numbers. But this just sounds like berating people for being in the minority or for not being strategic enough in their voting to say yes to a problematic ballot measure because it represents a positive move against Prop 13, and if it doesn't pass there will be less impetus to challenge Prop 13.

why did self-identifying democrats vote against these measures?

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, November 4, 2020 8:40 PM (five minutes ago)

this is just going off of anecdotal data but ...

Prop 15 -- concern for small businesses and artisans who will likely be hit with rent increases because owners will pass through the property tax increases, as well as businesses where they own their property but would suffer financial hardship.

Prop 19 -- is her issue that people should have voted against Prop 19? I voted against it, and a few other progressive guides recommended a no vote. However all the Democratic Party propaganda said to vote yes, and you were actually advocating a yes vote, so I didn't feel that demoralized when it has appeared to have a majority of support

Prop 22 -- worker autonomy and the ads suggesting that the drivers prefer to be contractors and not employees, and many of the ads featured minorities.

Nothing in her tweet suggested any position people should have taken on Prop 25 -- the cash bail one -- which was super fraught, and it came down to a bunch of people on the left speculating "which system would be more racist?"

Again, I am just saying "this is what people told me" and not "I agree with their reasoning"

i'm completely baffled by the point your trying to make by looking at counties.

the state of california voted for biden by 35 and voted against progressive ballot measures. that means a ton of biden voters voted against progressive ballot measures. i don't see how where those people are in the state of california is relevant.

and given that, there are two possibilities.

1. either many californian democrats are not actually that progressive on labor/housing/tax. this makes total sense to me and is all i'm trying to say! california voters (and the california democratic party) are on average way, way more conservative than similarly democratic east cost states on labor, housing and taxation! this seems obvious?! they are not hypocrites. i don't care whether they call themselves liberal or what.

2. millions of biden voters voted against those measures from the left? is that what you're saying?

i don't think she was talking about prop 19. or if she was, i'm not.

i'm talking about 15, rent control and 22.

either many californian democrats are not actually that progressive on labor/housing/tax. this makes total sense to me and is all i'm trying to say!

I agree with you, but I don't see how that supports what she said. Maybe I'm too focused on the "good liberals" phrase? ... the rent control one was awkward because I didn't see a lot of activism on it, probably because most of the progressive voters already live in municipalities with rent control. And the parts of the state that don't have rent control tend to be where the conservatives are. ... Also, I was unclear, would it have undone some of Costa Hawkins at all or just been an encouragement for rent control in general?

rent control certainly lost some votes because the details of ballot measure process/coalition building tactics were terrible, thanks to one incredibly vain person

If Michael Weinstein wants to repeal Costa Hawkins, he should write a check for mid-8 figures and hand it to ACCE with no strings attached.

Weinstein’s barnacle-like campaign consultants and lawyers should have no role higher than signature gatherer.

— Ask Me About Prop. 15 (@TribTowerViews) November 5, 2020

this is my favorite california politics tweet today.

Today @FixTheCityLA cofounder Jim O’Sullivan resigned as President of @MiracleMileMMRA. Jim wouldn’t even let @nithyavraman speak at a MMRA meeting since he was SURE that @davideryu was going to win. He has held back progress in Miracle Mile for years.

👋 Jim

♥️ Streets For All pic.twitter.com/tVr3Gcd0mE

— Streets For All (@streetsforall) November 5, 2020

xp the rent control tweet -- lol at the username and image ...I agree with them ... I also have been at the top of the Trib tower fwiw

ok now i wanna know who @tribtowerviews is IRL

Just spoke with a rep from alameda county (where Prop 15 is currently up 30%) board of elections rep who said about 50% of ballots are still outstanding. #YesOn15 is still very much in this. #CountEveryVote pic.twitter.com/pJKleOeLcY

— David #FeinsteinsAgainstFeinsteins Shor (@itsmedasho) November 5, 2020

yeah sfgate is saying that Prop 15 (and Prop 19) are still too close to call.

Anyone know how they expect the remaining votes to tilt on prop 15? It's losing by a little, but I don't know what votes are left in CA.

I'm looking at the "unprocessed ballots" report and there are still about 20% (or so) of the total still to be counted. And it looks like there are over a million left between LA County, Alameda County, Santa Clara County, and SF alone (all 4 counties that were high in favor of Prop 15). But there are also a bunch of unprocessed ballots in counties that have high "no" totals like Orange, San Bernadino and Riverside. ... My instinct is that the mail in ballots will probably skew progressive in line with Covid cautiousness, so maybe it will pass.