I honestly don't think Marcus would ever claim he's an expert on polling--precisely why I found his 2016 assessment so impressive, it was all layman's intuition. (And, again, I think he's wrong this time.)
― clemenza, Monday, 2 November 2020 00:03 (three years ago) link
that jerk didn't even return your correspondence though, stop defending him and show yourself some respect! ;)
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:04 (three years ago) link
You could say I'm torn.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 November 2020 00:04 (three years ago) link
Anyway, to get back on track, my layman's intuition tells me Donald Trump is not gonna win. So I'm on the wrong thread.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 November 2020 00:05 (three years ago) link
lol
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:07 (three years ago) link
:D
― A Scampo Darkly (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:13 (three years ago) link
― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:14 (three years ago) link
You're a little late clemenza's already torn
― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:20 (three years ago) link
i laughed out loud at the dick clark/casey kasem line but marcus is really a lot more than a "music critic"; he's written a lot of things about politics that i've found thought-provoking and useful. lipstick traces and in the fascist bathroom (his best books, in my opinion) have at least as much to say about politics as they do about music. i also think that, at his best, he's a genuinely great and insightful writer.
to be honest i didn't post the quote because i agreed with it: i find his pessimism frustrating, glib, and not really justified. marcus has been insisting that trump will win by a landslide for months, and i get the impression nothing will change his mind -- he'd still be making this argument if trump were polling at 1 percent. but i understand where he's coming from. i mean, i'm going to have trouble sleeping till tuesday is over.
i can relate to clemenza's experience with marcus, a little: i gave up asking him questions on his website after he responded incredibly rudely to what i thought was a perfectly benign question (something about his favorite history books).
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:55 (three years ago) link
The winner seems unlikely to be known on Tuesday
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Monday, 2 November 2020 00:58 (three years ago) link
The winner will be clear on Tuesday
― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto), Monday, 2 November 2020 01:01 (three years ago) link
Greil Marcus being right twice in a row is like asking a stopped clock what it thinks after an hour has passed
― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto), Monday, 2 November 2020 01:02 (three years ago) link
If Trump wins again Marcus can write a book called DIPSHIT RACIST: A SECRET HISTORY OF THE 21st CENTURY
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 2 November 2020 01:44 (three years ago) link
feel like we need a second containment thread for "political predictions from 'professional' music critics who have no real authority besides having done this shit for way too long" tbh― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
we have a containment board for them, ilm. i think that's good enough.
― treeship., Monday, 2 November 2020 02:08 (three years ago) link
Greil Marcus huh? What's Xgau's take on this?
― Welcome to Nonrock (breastcrawl), Monday, 2 November 2020 15:26 (three years ago) link
biden is more melodic iirc
― reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 2 November 2020 15:30 (three years ago) link
fuck rhythm
― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, 2 November 2020 15:45 (three years ago) link
let's be real, neither of these guys have a good duck rhythm
― edited for dog profanity (sic), Monday, 2 November 2020 16:28 (three years ago) link
oh motherfuck you autocorrect
Lame duck rhythm
― mildew and sanctimony (soda), Monday, 2 November 2020 16:29 (three years ago) link
I believe you mean motherduck you autocorrect
― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Monday, 2 November 2020 16:29 (three years ago) link
https://www.rapreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/mm-duck-rock.jpg
― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 2 November 2020 16:30 (three years ago) link
It occurs to me that election "odds" predictions are basically meaningless unless they have a certain outcome as near certain. There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Monday, 2 November 2020 17:16 (three years ago) link
attorney general rudolph giuliani
― reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 2 November 2020 18:00 (three years ago) link
don't really buy that, if you have a coin that immediately dissolves upon touching the ground it's still 50/50 if it's heads or tails
― frogbs, Monday, 2 November 2020 18:03 (three years ago) link
that said the difference is the uncertainty here actually revolves around things that are knowable - nearly 100 million ballots have been cast, if we could open them all we'd almost certainly know the winner
― frogbs, Monday, 2 November 2020 18:06 (three years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHKBlLyrRMI
― Young Boys of Bernie (Tom D.), Monday, 2 November 2020 18:35 (three years ago) link
There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.
I feel the emotional truth of this. Everything either happens or doesn't. And when you're experiencing a gut-level disaster it's no consolation to hear that there was only a 10% chance of it happening.
In 2016, I can tell you it wasn't a consolation to hear that actually the polls were pretty good, it's just that all the error went in one direction or that all the uncertainty puddled in one place. We still had to live through the last four years.
Hence Silver et al. are very careful to do all the "Trump can still win" bet-hedging, so that they have cover if people come back at them with "YOU WERE WRONG" stuff.
― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 2 November 2020 18:43 (three years ago) link
feeling confident trump isn't going to win now after being a naysayer back when this thread was created.
I could get 1.5 on a Biden win rn, and would be putting a decent chunk on there if I had it to spare, and I think those are fair odds. not a fait accompli, but the most likely outcome.
― Politically homely (jim in vancouver), Monday, 2 November 2020 18:47 (three years ago) link
my money says 2scoops comes close enough in enough states that his lawyers and the 6-3 supreme court can take it from there while he and barr jail the bidens, lock up the clintons, exile the soeteros, and finally, at long last, break ground on trump tower moscow, hand in hand with putin. book it. done
― reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 2 November 2020 19:07 (three years ago) link
I'll take that bet, or whichever betting saying means that I'm saying none of that will happen
― it bangs for thee (Simon H.), Monday, 2 November 2020 19:12 (three years ago) link
Gotta respect the dedication to the Putin but, though.
― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Monday, 2 November 2020 19:58 (three years ago) link
bit
say what? putin butt
― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 2 November 2020 20:05 (three years ago) link
what what putin butt
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, 2 November 2020 20:18 (three years ago) link
putin probably has a great butt tbf
― it bangs for thee (Simon H.), Monday, 2 November 2020 20:30 (three years ago) link
you sure do, milo z ;)
https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930149143/wh-adviser-scott-atlas-apologizes-for-interview-with-kremlin-backed-news-outlet
xpost
― reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 2 November 2020 20:40 (three years ago) link
all's fair in butt and war
― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 2 November 2020 20:41 (three years ago) link
putin may have a good fuck rhythm, as well
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, 2 November 2020 20:41 (three years ago) link
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:18 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
whatever fits I guess
― Evan, Monday, 2 November 2020 20:46 (three years ago) link
You want a Putin in my butt? Okay
― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Monday, 2 November 2020 21:06 (three years ago) link
mistadobalina, mista bob dobalina
― edited for dog profanity (sic), Monday, 2 November 2020 21:08 (three years ago) link
Perhaps the wrong thread for this but
Historically, presidents who run for reelection receive a share of the popular vote that is remarkably close to their final job approval rating. The RealClearPolitics polling average has tracked Trump’s job approval throughout his presidency. He is the first president to have never received a 50 percent rating; indeed, he has never come close. Trump’s highest marks came this year between March 26 and April 2, when he topped 47 percent. As of Sunday morning, his job approval stood at 45 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Given that there won’t be as much third-party voting this time around, that just won’t be good enough to win.
This from one of the Wash Po token conservatives
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/02/henry-olsen-2020-president-congress-election-predictions/?arc404=true
― Kabob Dylan (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 2 November 2020 21:54 (three years ago) link
how can 45 percent of people think he's doing a good job?? so insane to me
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, 2 November 2020 22:15 (three years ago) link
It just depends what they think the job is.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 2 November 2020 22:16 (three years ago) link
yeah he's actually nearly at his all-time high which is fucking mind boggling but I imagine the fact that we're approaching election day might have something to do with it
― frogbs, Monday, 2 November 2020 22:16 (three years ago) link
lots and lots of people in america for whom thinking is not desirable and strongly discouraged
― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, 2 November 2020 22:18 (three years ago) link
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, November 2, 2020 5:15 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
yeah it is confounding
― error prone wolf syndicate (Hadrian VIII), Monday, 2 November 2020 22:21 (three years ago) link
in the middle of a pandemic, the cleveland browns season tickets (which start at $1200 apiece) are sold out
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 2 November 2020 22:24 (three years ago) link