rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

I texted my mom today "Hopefully when I see you again our occupation by the orange idiot will be over." Her response:

"Yeah there's always hope I guess
I just don't think it's gonna pan out for us this time.
Do I think he will legitimately win?
No
Do I think he's gonna stay in office?
Fraid so"

What are they doing to these poor boomers?! I mean, I think there's certainly a chance she's proven right but damn, mom, so fatalistic already?

Jesus, he's a writer, he's allowed to write whatever the fuck he wants.

glad that's settled

Sure, but why are people listening to a music critic dancing to politics?

xp

"who have no real authority"

I have no earthly idea what that means. Who grants this authority, and where do we sign up?

LBI: whether you like Marcus or despise him, calling him a music critic is an extremely narrow description of what he does. He writes about everything. His last book was on The Great Gatsby (haven't read it, and I'm not sure if he leap-frogged his zone of authority).

there's a certain self-conscious "tough guy" un-emotional glibness to writers like marcus. it's not the prediction, it's the stupid trappings of a persona that no one has needed for thirty years being shoved unwanted into a beehive of anxiety. ham-fisted, no empathy. pretty much a failure at writing by any metric that means anything imo.

Clemenza, you are right about that. And I don't like nor despise him, but from an outsider view (I am an outsider) it does seem like Americans are quoting everyone and no-one, from Nate Silver to Marcus, to back up either their fears or hopes about the outcome of the election. If that's "just" (not saying this lightly) anxiety about Tuesday, I get that. But I don't think Greil Marcus, despite his wide array of topics covered, is an expert on polling/predictions of elections etc.

Tl;dr: It's getting hot in here.

(xpost) Well, again, if you've read a decent sampling of Marcus, you know he's just not someone who's going to write a rousing column on getting out the vote. Pretty clearly he's feeling your beehive of anxiety acutely, and he's expressing that in the way he often does--fatalistically.

I honestly don't think Marcus would ever claim he's an expert on polling--precisely why I found his 2016 assessment so impressive, it was all layman's intuition. (And, again, I think he's wrong this time.)

that jerk didn't even return your correspondence though, stop defending him and show yourself some respect! ;)

You could say I'm torn.

Anyway, to get back on track, my layman's intuition tells me Donald Trump is not gonna win. So I'm on the wrong thread.

lol

:D

lol

You could say I'm torn.

You're a little late
clemenza's already torn

i laughed out loud at the dick clark/casey kasem line but marcus is really a lot more than a "music critic"; he's written a lot of things about politics that i've found thought-provoking and useful. lipstick traces and in the fascist bathroom (his best books, in my opinion) have at least as much to say about politics as they do about music. i also think that, at his best, he's a genuinely great and insightful writer.

to be honest i didn't post the quote because i agreed with it: i find his pessimism frustrating, glib, and not really justified. marcus has been insisting that trump will win by a landslide for months, and i get the impression nothing will change his mind -- he'd still be making this argument if trump were polling at 1 percent. but i understand where he's coming from. i mean, i'm going to have trouble sleeping till tuesday is over.

i can relate to clemenza's experience with marcus, a little: i gave up asking him questions on his website after he responded incredibly rudely to what i thought was a perfectly benign question (something about his favorite history books).

The winner seems unlikely to be known on Tuesday

The winner will be clear on Tuesday

Greil Marcus being right twice in a row is like asking a stopped clock what it thinks after an hour has passed

If Trump wins again Marcus can write a book called DIPSHIT RACIST: A SECRET HISTORY OF THE 21st CENTURY

feel like we need a second containment thread for "political predictions from 'professional' music critics who have no real authority besides having done this shit for way too long" tbh

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

we have a containment board for them, ilm. i think that's good enough.

Greil Marcus huh? What's Xgau's take on this?

biden is more melodic iirc

fuck rhythm

let's be real, neither of these guys have a good duck rhythm

oh motherfuck you autocorrect

Lame duck rhythm

I believe you mean motherduck you autocorrect

https://www.rapreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/mm-duck-rock.jpg

It occurs to me that election "odds" predictions are basically meaningless unless they have a certain outcome as near certain. There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.

It occurs to me that election "odds" predictions are basically meaningless unless they have a certain outcome as near certain. There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.

attorney general rudolph giuliani

attorney general rudolph giuliani

don't really buy that, if you have a coin that immediately dissolves upon touching the ground it's still 50/50 if it's heads or tails

that said the difference is the uncertainty here actually revolves around things that are knowable - nearly 100 million ballots have been cast, if we could open them all we'd almost certainly know the winner

I believe you mean motherduck you autocorrect

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHKBlLyrRMI

There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.

I feel the emotional truth of this. Everything either happens or doesn't. And when you're experiencing a gut-level disaster it's no consolation to hear that there was only a 10% chance of it happening.

In 2016, I can tell you it wasn't a consolation to hear that actually the polls were pretty good, it's just that all the error went in one direction or that all the uncertainty puddled in one place. We still had to live through the last four years.

Hence Silver et al. are very careful to do all the "Trump can still win" bet-hedging, so that they have cover if people come back at them with "YOU WERE WRONG" stuff.

feeling confident trump isn't going to win now after being a naysayer back when this thread was created.

I could get 1.5 on a Biden win rn, and would be putting a decent chunk on there if I had it to spare, and I think those are fair odds. not a fait accompli, but the most likely outcome.

my money says 2scoops comes close enough in enough states that his lawyers and the 6-3 supreme court can take it from there while he and barr jail the bidens, lock up the clintons, exile the soeteros, and finally, at long last, break ground on trump tower moscow, hand in hand with putin. book it. done

I'll take that bet, or whichever betting saying means that I'm saying none of that will happen

Gotta respect the dedication to the Putin but, though.

bit

say what? putin butt

what what putin butt

putin probably has a great butt tbf

you sure do, milo z ;)

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930149143/wh-adviser-scott-atlas-apologizes-for-interview-with-kremlin-backed-news-outlet

xpost

all's fair in butt and war

putin may have a good fuck rhythm, as well

what what putin butt

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:18 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

whatever fits I guess