rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

That's less a prediction and more a warning. Idk that even Silver would have disagreed with it

This tine Greil is attempting a prediction

clemenza, are we talking about Silver or Marcus?

This tine Greil is attempting a prediction

He's definitely identified a fork in the road

Marcus...I read it as a warning and a prediction. And he was definitely wrong about where Trump's support would come from ("particularly among better educated and better-off people"). Still, almost a year out, pretty good, I'd say.

"Marcus...I read it as a warning and a prediction."

How? He's a music critic first and foremost! Why listen to every dick and nancy w/ their own 'predicitons' other than having it rile you up?

He's a music critic first and foremost!

Marcus? Yes, and no. And it hardly riled me up. It was interesting.

I always get resistance when I quote that...even if you hate the guy, is it that hard to say, "Hmmm, pretty good call"? I don't remember a lot of other people allowing that Trump might win. I don't like Michael Moore, but I give him credit for seeing something everybody missed.

I've met Marcus several times. He moderated a panel I sat on in 2017 -- a gentlemen in private, if this term exists in 2020. But his position staggers me with its implicit admission of insularity. Not once does he acknowledge the work done by people Not Trump hoping to reverse the flow: the volunteers, the lawyers working on SCOTUS and local court challenges, etc. It's just this hand-throwing "Yup, he'll win, and I'll still have a berth from which I can opine on conspiracies and correspondences and echoes, etc."

Reading his post, I think at my most sinister that Marcus is signaling, "Don't worry, folks! I'll still write well during a Trump second term."

I'm quite sure he's aware of all that. He's an old guy who's seen a lot of horrible stuff. He's not a cheerleader--I don't know why a certain amount of fatalism would be so scandalous.

and, yeah, he was right in 2016. He's criticized Gore Vidal and others for writing with the smugness of certainty.

I'm quite sure he's aware of all that.

Probably, especially if you have dinner with him. That does not come across in his post.

"Don't worry, folks! I'll still write well during a Trump second term."

Really? Marcus is about the least self-aggrandizing rock critic I've ever read.

I wouldn't call it self-aggrandizing so much as the dreaded term "privileged." He's fine in California.

I just think he was really wrong about "...in many circles, particularly among better educated and better-off people, and particularly on the coasts, there are plenty of people who are attracted to Trump, who are secretly thrilled by the current of nihilism he is riding and the specter of destruction he embodies, but are keeping their mouths shut."

If I have to admit what most turned my stomach, it's how the Trump's Chances sentences he puts between dashes as asides. He's too sharp a writer for that kind of callousness.

"who are secretly thrilled by the current of nihilism he is riding"--I think he was right about that, he just had the wrong people who were thrilled.

I interviewed Marcus in 1986, and he contributed to my fanzine once. I wrote a book in 2014 that was important to me, sent it to him, and never got so much as a thanks--even though there was a chapter on him and other writers who'd influence me a lot. I said I was finished with Marcus at that point. It's only here, Michael Corleone-style, I get dragged into defending him.

feel like we need a second containment thread for "political predictions from 'professional' music critics who have no real authority besides having done this shit for way too long" tbh

I texted my mom today "Hopefully when I see you again our occupation by the orange idiot will be over." Her response:

"Yeah there's always hope I guess
I just don't think it's gonna pan out for us this time.
Do I think he will legitimately win?
No
Do I think he's gonna stay in office?
Fraid so"

What are they doing to these poor boomers?! I mean, I think there's certainly a chance she's proven right but damn, mom, so fatalistic already?

Jesus, he's a writer, he's allowed to write whatever the fuck he wants.

glad that's settled

Sure, but why are people listening to a music critic dancing to politics?

xp

"who have no real authority"

I have no earthly idea what that means. Who grants this authority, and where do we sign up?

LBI: whether you like Marcus or despise him, calling him a music critic is an extremely narrow description of what he does. He writes about everything. His last book was on The Great Gatsby (haven't read it, and I'm not sure if he leap-frogged his zone of authority).

there's a certain self-conscious "tough guy" un-emotional glibness to writers like marcus. it's not the prediction, it's the stupid trappings of a persona that no one has needed for thirty years being shoved unwanted into a beehive of anxiety. ham-fisted, no empathy. pretty much a failure at writing by any metric that means anything imo.

Clemenza, you are right about that. And I don't like nor despise him, but from an outsider view (I am an outsider) it does seem like Americans are quoting everyone and no-one, from Nate Silver to Marcus, to back up either their fears or hopes about the outcome of the election. If that's "just" (not saying this lightly) anxiety about Tuesday, I get that. But I don't think Greil Marcus, despite his wide array of topics covered, is an expert on polling/predictions of elections etc.

Tl;dr: It's getting hot in here.

(xpost) Well, again, if you've read a decent sampling of Marcus, you know he's just not someone who's going to write a rousing column on getting out the vote. Pretty clearly he's feeling your beehive of anxiety acutely, and he's expressing that in the way he often does--fatalistically.

I honestly don't think Marcus would ever claim he's an expert on polling--precisely why I found his 2016 assessment so impressive, it was all layman's intuition. (And, again, I think he's wrong this time.)

that jerk didn't even return your correspondence though, stop defending him and show yourself some respect! ;)

You could say I'm torn.

Anyway, to get back on track, my layman's intuition tells me Donald Trump is not gonna win. So I'm on the wrong thread.

lol

:D

lol

You could say I'm torn.

You're a little late
clemenza's already torn

i laughed out loud at the dick clark/casey kasem line but marcus is really a lot more than a "music critic"; he's written a lot of things about politics that i've found thought-provoking and useful. lipstick traces and in the fascist bathroom (his best books, in my opinion) have at least as much to say about politics as they do about music. i also think that, at his best, he's a genuinely great and insightful writer.

to be honest i didn't post the quote because i agreed with it: i find his pessimism frustrating, glib, and not really justified. marcus has been insisting that trump will win by a landslide for months, and i get the impression nothing will change his mind -- he'd still be making this argument if trump were polling at 1 percent. but i understand where he's coming from. i mean, i'm going to have trouble sleeping till tuesday is over.

i can relate to clemenza's experience with marcus, a little: i gave up asking him questions on his website after he responded incredibly rudely to what i thought was a perfectly benign question (something about his favorite history books).

The winner seems unlikely to be known on Tuesday

The winner will be clear on Tuesday

Greil Marcus being right twice in a row is like asking a stopped clock what it thinks after an hour has passed

If Trump wins again Marcus can write a book called DIPSHIT RACIST: A SECRET HISTORY OF THE 21st CENTURY

feel like we need a second containment thread for "political predictions from 'professional' music critics who have no real authority besides having done this shit for way too long" tbh

― Give me a Chad Smith-type feel (map), Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

we have a containment board for them, ilm. i think that's good enough.

Greil Marcus huh? What's Xgau's take on this?

biden is more melodic iirc

fuck rhythm

let's be real, neither of these guys have a good duck rhythm

oh motherfuck you autocorrect

Lame duck rhythm

I believe you mean motherduck you autocorrect

https://www.rapreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/mm-duck-rock.jpg

It occurs to me that election "odds" predictions are basically meaningless unless they have a certain outcome as near certain. There is no meaningful difference between a 20%, 30%, or 50% "chance" of winning a presidential election, because you can never test the odds -- the same election (or an election under similar enough conditions) is never going to happen again, let alone 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 or 100 times so you can actually figure out whether donald trump really wins the election 3/10 times or 1/10 times or whatever under current conditions. If you're going to say 20% you might just as well say 50%.