"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

i wonder if Nate enjoys that kind of exposure

I've got to believe he loves it, even if he might not admit to that (and even if it gives competitors a chance to caricature him).

so that AtlasIntel has called 81% of races correctly, has a Simple Average Error of 8.8 points, and its Advanced and Predictive scores aren't great, 538 sez they're average. online survey, ima say it's likely bogus for Wisconsin

it also got a 89% white sample

half of AtlasIntel's summary of their poll is them bragging about how good their polling performance has been too. it reads like a press release

In 2016, Clinton won the TX counties containing Houston, Dallas and Austin by 541k votes. In 2018, Beto won them by 682k. Biden's likely on pace to win them by 1 million+.

And that's not even including San Antonio/El Paso.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

i have a new sign, it says "whenever you talk about texas turnout numbers you have to use per cent, or you have to acknowledge that the population of texas is growing rapidly", and i'm tapping it ;-)

People seem to misinterpret that growth, too - Beto won natives, Sen. Blobfish won the non-native Texans.

Direct deposit into the spank bank. https://t.co/KmWGjdwBxD

— Bradley Whitford (@BradleyWhitford) November 1, 2020

He hit that three like it was a Yemeni wedding https://t.co/J8zgqpEN0R

— accidentally racist spooky display name (@websiteidi0t) October 31, 2020

lol at that 'seen between pumpkins' tweet

That Yemeni wedding tweet...whew.

Reading the replies on the original is some sad, sad stuff. Lots of whites with blue checkmarks being like 'he's so cool omg what village will his drones strafe next'

23,975,574 Americans who didn't vote in the 2016 election have already voted.

7,816,118 of these voters were voting for the first time in their life.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 1, 2020

I'm gonna idly speculate, perhaps unhelpfully, at least a fifth of those are votes for 'four more years' sadly, whether young first time voters or just commonly apathetic types who sat out last time but then got red-pilled by antifa setting fire to their minecart, but let's hope it's far far less.

The Yemeni wedding tweet is not funny.

Hm okay I'm open to that, crut. I personally don't know if it's supposed to be "funny" as much as pushing against the adulation? But I don't swim in those waters much so I'm probably missing something.

Election Day weather forecast: Great!

Outside of the Pacific NW (where folks vote by mail), basically no rain/snow is in the forecast across the entire country. That means voters waiting in pandemic-mandated lines outside polling places should stay dry, if maybe a little chilly. pic.twitter.com/TI4CJAgIQg

— Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) November 1, 2020

Reading the replies on the original is some sad, sad stuff. Lots of whites with blue checkmarks being like 'he's so cool omg what village will his drones strafe next'

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Sunday, November 1, 2020 11:57 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'm not familiar w the full context of verified white ppl being flippant(?) about USian-dealt horrors? Fwiw it appeared in my timeline being RTed by @WyzeChef, a Ferguson organizer. I apologize if it was tone-deaf or inappropriate.

I apologize if it was tone-deaf or inappropriate.

Don't worry about it. Saying something positive about Barack Obama is always tone-deaf and inappropriate, if you're map or table.

There’s nothing wrong with that tweet.

It’s a legit response (funny? I laughed) to misguided Obama adulation.

Putting aside whether or not the tweet is supposed to be funny, I fail to see the analogy between atrociously bungled strikes that killed civilians instead of the intended target and a nothing-but-net three pointer.

Good morning!

Turnout of FL's registrants so far:

Dems: 64.3%
GOPers: 64.1%
NPA/others: 49.7%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

They are not analogous, that’s the point.

The “joke” is this scrim of celebrity that obscures the atrocities. It’s a sendup of responses like Bradley Whitford’s “spank bank” line.

I've never read this guy, but this is worth a peek:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why-joe-biden-is-going-to-win

Nate Silver gave Donald Trump around a 30% chance to win. 30% events happen all the time.

ok, and now he has Trump at 10%. so why write an entire article arguing that Biden is a shoo-in?

i'm acting way too cranky this morning so will bow out of this thread.

ok, and now he has Trump at 10%. so why write an entire article arguing that Biden is a shoo-in?

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt),

to...reassure you?

Wow

🚨 State Legislative Chamber Rating Change 🚨

We are getting rid of our final Toss-Up in our forecasts:

TX House | Toss-Up → Tilt D (FLIP)

D Maj. 50%
R Maj. 44.4%
Tie 5.6%

See our nationwide state legislative forecast:https://t.co/yKxc3sFaOU pic.twitter.com/A8I6jYyiMY

— CNalysis (@CNalysis) November 1, 2020

Putting aside whether or not the tweet is supposed to be funny, I fail to see the analogy between atrociously bungled strikes that killed civilians instead of the intended target and a nothing-but-net three pointer.

― real muthaphuckkin jeez (crüt), Sunday, November 1, 2020 8:19 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This. I think it's totally fair to criticize Obama's foreign policy and use of drone strikes, but this often gets twisted into a caricature of Obama as a gleeful mass murderer, which...c'mon.

On ABC, Trump adviser Jason Miller signals a legal battle against ballots not yet counted by Tuesday. "If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that President Trump will be ahead on election night ... And then they're going to try to steal it back after the election."

— Will Saletan (@saletan) November 1, 2020

Will enjoy courts saying "where are you guaranteed a right to have all ballots counted on Election Day"

In a 6-3 decision

who are these Smart Democrats

do we have a new thread yet?

NYT-Siena polls:

Arizona: Likely voters
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Florida: Likely voters
Biden 47%
Trump 44%

Pennsylvania: Likely voters
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Wisconsin: Likely voters
Biden 52%
Trump 41%

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 1, 2020

Xpost nah, even they aren't gonna do that. They have been deferential to rules passed by state legislatures and only overturning decisions made by fed courts.

Emerson also has Biden at +6 Wisconsin, Trump at +2 Iowa

This. I think it's totally fair to criticize Obama's foreign policy and use of drone strikes, but this often gets twisted into a caricature of Obama as a gleeful mass murderer, which...c'mon.

― jaymc, Sunday, November 1, 2020 7:53 AM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The problem is that what libs and Dems who worship Obama would have us believe is that none of the drone strikes, reinvigoration of border carceral apparatus, and other actions which should rightly be considered *war crimes* or at least *crimes against humanity* even happened, and that Obama is some "effortlessly cool" and "progressive" leader when really he's just a neoliberal murderer.

Early vote at 93.2 million. Further notes from McDonald:

2020 #earlyvote as % of 2016 total turnout

HI 111%
TX 108%
MT 99%
NC 95%
GA 94%
NM 93%
NV 91%
FL 91%
TN 90%
OR 88%
CO 87%
AZ 87%
NJ 80%

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

Questions now for overall turnout:

- How much more mail is yet to be returned? (Keep in mind some states accept ballots postmarked by Election Day)
- How much mail is returned, but not entered as processed yet?
- How much Election Day vote will be cast?

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

Should add

- A few states are still offering in-person early voting. How much more in-person?

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 1, 2020

McDonald's percentage listing doesn't cover every state near the top, but it's a good range. Washington's at 97.9%, for instance.

Pointing out the normalization of the silence around Obama's many crimes is always a worthy pursuit imho, particularly if it's taking aim at an establishment that seeks to distract from reality by being all "wow he can hit a three-pointer my pants are creamy."

There isn’t much silence around his war crimes, or else you wouldn’t be so aware of it, it’s simply that most people are able to sustain conflicting ideas and understand the degrees of nuance inherent in people, and how it’s amplified when are you the commander in chief of most the powerful defense in the world.

GET OUT: US politics November 2020