"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

There’s a comment in there about some bad polling dropping midnight, not taking that seriously but Jesus Christ my nerves are getting frazzled

now that Trump is officially history, can we talk about the size of Hunter Biden's schlong in that new Chinese sex tape?

...if it's OK with DJP, that is

I clicked over to @Politics_Polls, saw a Wisconsin poll with Trump +1 and my heart sank. Pollster is AtlasIntel, which is rated B/C by 538, but people don't seem to be taking it seriously. I dunno.

I’m really not worried about Biden winning at all. It’s all about the Senate for me.

This seems somewhat reassuring (headline if you don't want to click: "Trump has cast doubt on a peaceful transfer of power, but the preparation for one is well underway").

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/presidential-transition-planning/index.html

Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to the Biden campaign and Harvey Weinstein

xxp yeah the Senate seems much more iffy

The Atlas poll was an online poll. Those are low quality

I wonder if Nate silver is aware of the senate election in Iowa

Xpost lots of idiots saying IT'S A TREND. RACE TIGHTENING

Yeah the Atlas one was like 89% white so Trump +1 ain’t so bad

xp ugh

xxxxxp I agree with Dan S

Cory Gardner's loss cancels out Doug Jones' loss, those seem like givens. I think Mark Kelly and Cal Cunningham will win, but I'm not confident about Sara Gideon beating Susan Collins, or about any of the other senate races

I don't think they've done another poll in the state

so, like, I'm trying to be cool and read the room here: am I understanding that we do not want to talk about the size of Hunter Biden's gigantic schlong? just asking

xp yeah Naenderthal's right, I double checked and they haven't done another poll in that particular state

The race in Houston Texas is tightening up

hehehe that's great! funny post, f. hazel. I was just listening to Yo La Tengo's cover of that on their covers album Yo La Tengo is Murdering the Classics (Egon Records, 2006)

anyone else on this board like Yo La Tengo? I know Dr. Morbious did...

could you stop posting, please?

do.............................................. you want me to answer that?

cause like, answering your question requires me to post. so, yeah

lemme know if I can post to answer your question

here's a URL for all you politics junkies out dere

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-north-carolina/index.html

edited for dog profanity (sic)
Posted: October 31, 2020 at 16:40:20
Trump in PA explicitly saying he’s counting on the Supreme Court to throw the election

Lol at gyacs link. HE DID IT AGAIN

xp thank you for posting, Alba! bluggggggh, I hate Trump. hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate Trump. cannot wait until he gets a swift kick in his boompa and leaves the White House, Washington D.C., USA! it's Joe time baby :)

sorry I know I'm posting a lot right now but I just wanted to say that I also really liked gyac's funny second twitter embed of the freezing cold torture! I mean, I HATE it, but I also really like it! you fellow ilxors know what I mean

This is like luriqua posting after a stint at the Betty Ford clinic

xp (I guess I should clarify that it wasn't technically freezing cold. freezing cold is 32° F but it was 41° F there)

I figured out this Hunter Biden laptop thing. It’s just like Willy Wonka’s golden ticket. You find one and you get to spend a magical day at Fox News. I hear Tucker does an impressive barrel roll.

Early voting over 91 million and that does in essence mean another milestone per Elections Project — over 66% of the entire 2016 vote, two thirds. A remarkable amount.

burrito I like Yo La Tengo a lot

me too dude, me too

xp wow, just wow

President Donald Trump is seen between pumpkins during a campaign rally at Pittsburgh-Butler Regional Airport in Butler, Pennsylvania. Photo by @ReutersBarria pic.twitter.com/oWQdP15gS7

— corinne_perkins (@corinne_perkins) October 31, 2020

Nate Cohn has a good post about the Selzer poll in Iowa.

I find this calming:

https://kendallkaut.substack.com/p/why-joe-biden-is-going-to-win

Some might argue, “The state polls were well off in ‘16, I don’t trust them.” The state polls missed in the Midwest, in large part, in 2016 because many failed to weigh by education. Most major pollsters now weigh by education. So it’s not even an apples-to-apples comparison between ‘16 polls and ‘20 polls. If pollsters still use the ‘16 framework, Biden would have a much bigger lead.

That's good, yeah.

another bit of context on the IA poll:

Independents, again, are key in this race. This is a group Trump carried in 2016.

Our September poll showed Biden leading with independents 50% to 38% (+12)

Today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35% (+14)https://t.co/0CcpU32GDn

— Brianne Pfannenstiel (@brianneDMR) October 31, 2020

theres no indication that Biden's standing among independents has slipped, this poll has to be a big outlier

Maybe independent Iowans are big fans of coughing COVID on each other in bars while they drown their sorrows at poor corn prices.

the only way i'll be worried is if tomorrow's polls and the final polls show something similar. is worth nothing that a lot of the positive Biden polls ranged 10/23 - 10/30 and the Iowa poll spanned only the 29th-30th - so i'll be curious to see if other polls that span just the last few days show any shift.

honestly though I'm tapped out of worrying and gonna watch sports all day tomorrow.

polls don't just randomly shift like that though, nothing's changed in the final days except for new all-time high scores in the Covid count

no matter how sound your methodology is you're going to get weird outliers with 800 person samples roughly 5% of the time. that's what WI+17 was and that's got to be what this is.

i agree with that. it's funny watching the Twittersphere shit itself though

lol Nate Silver took the gloves OFF

I'm sure assholes like you would give "my profession" a hard time in pursuit of whatever vainglorious angle you're trying to play. But 10% things happen 10% of the time and empirically based on our forecasts that's exactly how often they do happen. https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2020

So he stranded rally attendees in the cold without return shuttles again? These morons will never learn how much he actively hates them.

Sorry, I see that was already covered upthread.

It’s 41° for those wondering. https://t.co/jk4B24ecJS

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) November 1, 2020

email from James Carville I just got:

Nancy asked.

And now I’m begging.

So you can bet your own butt this is important!

Trump just announced he amassed $265 MILLION to win his re-election. $265 MILLION!

I’m calling on grassroots Democrats to band together like a mob of angry bees! Nancy launched an emergency 4X-match to outraise him -- but she can only keep it open until tonight’s midnight deadline. >>

very glad he specified we can bet our *own* butts