"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Yeah I thought of the WI +17 too. Are polls like that normal in the final week if the race truly is stable? I dunno usually I don’t try to pay attention to the minutia

Good news is there were some CNN polls in 4 swing states, all good results for Biden, even with an entire MOE in Trumps favor he’s easily winning WI and MI, and slightly winning AZ and PA

There's gonna be Cuban missiles on Mars, and we are gonna free South Vietnam from the Branch Davidians

He's talked about Mars for a couple of years - better to go there because the moon isn't exciting, very low energy

Moon is a liberal star

i thought the military was giving everyone free regeneron? did i dream this?

Separate thought too re mail ballots in general — if you look at Elections Project’s site you’ll see that 33 million mail ballots aren’t returned and that might freak you out. But: literally over a third of those are California, where the state mailed out a ballot to everyone; a large amount would never be returned anyway, etc. That could affect internal contests but not the presidential end result. So it’s 21 million in practical terms, and a number of those are similarly in states that switched to sending one out to all, again not expecting everyone to vote that way. So basically check out the states individually — and see what they’ve done or haven’t done — to see where concern might matter.

so one thing I'm trying to square

a lot of polling of early voters is showing that they tend to lean heavily Dem - I'm seeing stuff like "people who voted early are 63-37 Biden, those who plan to vote in person are 61-39 Trump".

but when you break it down by party registration there seems to be a fairly even R/D split, and the 65+ demo leads all age groups. which implies that a lot of registered R's and seniors are voting Biden, as well as a huge chunk of independents. this seems like good news, but I'm not seeing any of the 538 guys comment on it yet. so what's going on here?

Mother mother
Everybody thinks the polls are wrong

Because as our own caek has always indicated with his sign tapping you can’t know for sure quite that. It’s certainly a strong assumption — McDonald and Wasserman keep going back and forth on this — but it’s just not a guarantee.

Selzer in Iowa is the best pollster in the country so that poll should be taken seriously.

But it doesn’t make a ton of sense.

this seems like good news, but I'm not seeing any of the 538 guys comment on it yet. so what's going on here?

Meantime once again

Trump has finished and left, but there’s thousands of supporters who have been let loose into the night with no sign of the shuttles they’ve been told will take them back to parking. People are filling the street, blocking the road for ambulances and police. pic.twitter.com/uMgfvUZ4Jg

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) October 31, 2020

don't read too much into one poll, move on

bush ii also made a big thing of Mars for some reason in one of his SOTUs. somewhere there must be some single-issue crank GOP consultant who just really loves Mars and keeps generating studies promising it's an electoral winner.

xp

It’s 41° for those wondering. https://t.co/jk4B24ecJS

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) November 1, 2020

Silver is nettled

Man, Democrats' anxiety levels is off the charts. Which, of course. But it's a good night to have a glass of wine or whatever and chill out about the polls. It's pretty unlikely that the overall polling outlook is going to look much different on Tuesday morning than it does now.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2020

We've gotten a lot of data, most of it very recent. 91 million people have already voted. There's no October surprise unless you want to count the latest COVID spike, which isn't good news for Trump. Trump can win but there's not much indication of a last-minute surge toward him.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2020

There’s a comment in there about some bad polling dropping midnight, not taking that seriously but Jesus Christ my nerves are getting frazzled

now that Trump is officially history, can we talk about the size of Hunter Biden's schlong in that new Chinese sex tape?

...if it's OK with DJP, that is

I clicked over to @Politics_Polls, saw a Wisconsin poll with Trump +1 and my heart sank. Pollster is AtlasIntel, which is rated B/C by 538, but people don't seem to be taking it seriously. I dunno.

I’m really not worried about Biden winning at all. It’s all about the Senate for me.

This seems somewhat reassuring (headline if you don't want to click: "Trump has cast doubt on a peaceful transfer of power, but the preparation for one is well underway").

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/presidential-transition-planning/index.html

Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to the Biden campaign and Harvey Weinstein

xxp yeah the Senate seems much more iffy

The Atlas poll was an online poll. Those are low quality

I wonder if Nate silver is aware of the senate election in Iowa

Xpost lots of idiots saying IT'S A TREND. RACE TIGHTENING

Yeah the Atlas one was like 89% white so Trump +1 ain’t so bad

xp ugh

xxxxxp I agree with Dan S

Cory Gardner's loss cancels out Doug Jones' loss, those seem like givens. I think Mark Kelly and Cal Cunningham will win, but I'm not confident about Sara Gideon beating Susan Collins, or about any of the other senate races

I don't think they've done another poll in the state

so, like, I'm trying to be cool and read the room here: am I understanding that we do not want to talk about the size of Hunter Biden's gigantic schlong? just asking

xp yeah Naenderthal's right, I double checked and they haven't done another poll in that particular state

The race in Houston Texas is tightening up

hehehe that's great! funny post, f. hazel. I was just listening to Yo La Tengo's cover of that on their covers album Yo La Tengo is Murdering the Classics (Egon Records, 2006)

anyone else on this board like Yo La Tengo? I know Dr. Morbious did...

could you stop posting, please?

do.............................................. you want me to answer that?

cause like, answering your question requires me to post. so, yeah

lemme know if I can post to answer your question

here's a URL for all you politics junkies out dere

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-north-carolina/index.html

edited for dog profanity (sic)
Posted: October 31, 2020 at 16:40:20
Trump in PA explicitly saying he’s counting on the Supreme Court to throw the election

Lol at gyacs link. HE DID IT AGAIN

xp thank you for posting, Alba! bluggggggh, I hate Trump. hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate Trump. cannot wait until he gets a swift kick in his boompa and leaves the White House, Washington D.C., USA! it's Joe time baby :)

sorry I know I'm posting a lot right now but I just wanted to say that I also really liked gyac's funny second twitter embed of the freezing cold torture! I mean, I HATE it, but I also really like it! you fellow ilxors know what I mean

This is like luriqua posting after a stint at the Betty Ford clinic

xp (I guess I should clarify that it wasn't technically freezing cold. freezing cold is 32° F but it was 41° F there)

I figured out this Hunter Biden laptop thing. It’s just like Willy Wonka’s golden ticket. You find one and you get to spend a magical day at Fox News. I hear Tucker does an impressive barrel roll.

Early voting over 91 million and that does in essence mean another milestone per Elections Project — over 66% of the entire 2016 vote, two thirds. A remarkable amount.

burrito I like Yo La Tengo a lot

me too dude, me too

xp wow, just wow