"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

Seems bad

This is state terrorism. The @GrahamPolice & @AlamanceNC are violently attacking children in North Carolina, rounding up & arresting Democratic poll watchers, & beating & arresting voters at polling places.

— Mark Hughes (@markhughesfilms) October 31, 2020

they are going to fucking steal this election

Here’s how the Harris county sitch is gonna play out:
1. courts vote to throw out the ballots on Monday
2. angered Texans pack the polls on Tuesday
3. Supreme Court rules that the original votes need to be counted, spoiling untold ballots
4. Texas legislature claims “chaos” and tried to send their own electors

tbf this is the first election of our young country, we'll get it figured out eventually

Trump in PA explicitly saying he’s counting on the Supreme Court to throw the election

I guess more likely is they don’t appeal to the Supreme Court if/when they lose on Monday

They’re gonna have to throw out so many ballots

National Average Lead 3 Days To #ElectionDay

2000: Bush +2
2004: Bush +2.3
2008: Obama +6.4
2012: Obama +0.5
2016: Clinton +2.9
2020: Biden: +8.7

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2020

Feel like the UN should be doing more to monitor the election in this failed state

Lots of delicious quotes here in here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-trump-republicans-elections/2020/10/30/9eacb5b6-1aaf-11eb-aeec-b93bcc29a01b_story.html

This wouldn't load a story for me, just a link to free live updates - if anyone feels like pulling delicious quotes, go ahead

New: Georgia finishes its early voting period at 3,880,984 votes cast, 95% of its '16 total votes cast. Notable counties surpassing '16 total votes cast:

1. Forsyth +14%
2. Paulding +8%
3. Henry +6%
4. Hall +4%
5. Fulton +2%
6. Gwinnett +1%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 31, 2020

Can not fathom how this massive turnout is anything but disastrous for the GOP

Trump in PA explicitly saying he’s counting on the Supreme Court to throw the election

Here's the clip from Trump's Reading, PA rally: “If we win on Tuesday or — thank you very much, Supreme Court — shortly thereafter…”pic.twitter.com/erqh5uNMsk

— The Recount (@therecount) October 31, 2020

From a Texas journalist on the judge in that Harris County case:

Hanen is very conservative, but he’s surprised observers before (as when he left DACA in place.) Let’s hope he puts the kibosh on this complaint—> https://t.co/h8MrEKzRVA

— EricaGrieder (@EricaGrieder) October 31, 2020

Feel like the UN should be doing more to monitor the election in this failed state

― big man on scampus (Noodle Vague), zaterdag 31 oktober 2020 21:27 (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Was going to say, seems like a no-brainer to have the UN present. But then I learnt something today on wiki:

International organizations such as the Organization of American States, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the European Union, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the Council of Europe, and the African Union regularly deploy monitoring teams. The United Nations no longer provides monitoring services; instead, it focuses on electoral assistance. Individual governments also participate in monitoring efforts, generally under the umbrella of an international organization. These national efforts are normally managed by the local electoral commission. A wide array of NGOs also participate in monitoring efforts. The Carter Center, for example, played a key role—with the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division and the National Democratic Institute—in building consensus on a common set of international principles for election observation

I did not know that! Send in the African Union imo.

More Georgia details:

https://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/local/gwinnetts-turnout-for-tuesdays-election-has-already-surpassed-total-from-four-years-ago/article_5f609464-1ae5-11eb-b8ac-676c8ca24ea5.html

Frankly, any presidential candidate who, this close to the election, is talking about 'IF we win' rather than 'WHEN we win' knows that he's about to get his ass dragged down several miles of gravel road.

Yeah that leapt out at me too.

Here's hoping. Gonna have to order extra bourbon though if I am to make it to Wednesday. If it comes down to my sanity or my liver, it's an easy choice.

You can always get another liver.

As Kilgore Trout said: “I hope they never leave.”

It's come to this: A neighbor reports that AG William Barr's house in McLean is being picketed by Trump supporters who believe he's not doing enough to lock up Joe Biden pic.twitter.com/Ko6Mbyfi97

— Glenn Kessler (@GlennKesslerWP) October 31, 2020

It's almost as if the GOP constituency at this point is COVID in human form. Ultimately, they'll ravage anyone sans discrimination. Good luck reaping what you've sown, you venal fuckers.

1. Forsyth +14%
2. Paulding +8%
3. Henry +6%
4. Hall +4%
5. Fulton +2%
6. Gwinnett +1%

half of these (Forsyth, Paulding, Hall) are Republican strongholds

Could be a sign either way? Already seeing a bunch of speculation.

i have a pretty strong stomach for this stuff but the texas drive through thing is fucked up.

the only thing i can say to make it seem less bad is ... if they go ahead and discard them, it's probably a net of "only" 25,000 votes for biden. i might live to regret saying this but texas is a huge electorate, and the presidential election is unlikely to be that close.

of course this is not the GOP's only move, and these things add up. and there are other elections going on.

Could be a sign either way? Already seeing a bunch of speculation.

2020 early voting analysis in a nutshell.

just as an example set of polls, if this is correct it doesn't matter what happens in PA/TX/FL/GA.

New CNN/SSRS polls show Biden ahead in four battleground state polls
MI Biden+12, 53-41
AZ Biden+4, 50-46
WI Biden+8, 52-44
NC Biden+6, 51-45https://t.co/kzfD9zlhZX

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2020

re: that Recount clip, Trump's wearing proper villain-in-a-corny-70s-thriller black leather gloves

I think at this point I'm comfortable predicting the biggest presidential blowout since, what, '84? I am not, however, comfortable predicting that the legitimacy of that blowout won't be compromised by the GOP stirring up an unprecedented level of bullshit.

gonna close this tab and repeat to myself three times "i know nothing, i believe nothing"

CNN's giving a lot of play to “If we win on Tuesday or — thank you very much, Supreme Court — shortly thereafter..."

I'm maybe being naive here, but I'm taking that as Trump bluffing to demoralize (and depress) Democratic turnout--making it seem that everything's been taken care of already, no need to vote. I don't even want to think about that meaning exactly what it seems to mean.

seems more likely to drive anti-Trump turnout

I'm taking that as Trump just spewing words from his barely-functioning brain like always

I’m ready for anything

seems more likely to drive anti-Trump turnout

uh we're seeing it now

It’s a natural experiment

It’s a natural experiment

I doubt anyone motivated by electoral probity is not already turning out for biden, regardless of what trump says in the next couple of days.

This stuff he says is bad electoral politics because it depresses turnout on his own side: “the election isn’t fair and don’t worry we’re going to fix it in the courts later” is not a message that motivates yourself own voters.

I can't get much angrier right now. This is such a toxic place to live
I fucking hate it

the thing about throwing out votes in Harris County and saying that it won't matter because Texas is huge so it won't be close either way, is that the only way Biden and maybe Hegar win in Texas is if it's close.

sorry for garbled syntax. What I mean is, a Democratic win in Texas is a longshot and will only happen with tight margins.

Just did myself a favor and got myself banned from FB for three days for saying "fuck you, cunt" to a male Trump voter cheering the ambush on.

Meanwhile, my friend reported someone who posted "Defeat Biden and that half-breed Kamala" and was told it didn't violate community standards.

#FBexit

Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.
That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern sweephttps://t.co/bIOVhFRaQh

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2020

I know this is likely an outlier since it doesn’t correlate with any of the other polls we’ve gotten but still hard not to feel a little PTSD from shit like this

yeah

Nobody show this video to @realDonaldTrump 🤭 🏀 pic.twitter.com/r5HaS0ufuE

— chris evans (@notcapnamerica) October 31, 2020

It's a uh huge outlier

Sorry I’m drunk and watched that way too many times

Don't overreact to one poll ad infinitum

Pretty much polling Twitter is treating it as an outlier. Wasserman in response:

Updated rough personal rankings of the Trump '16 turf likeliest to flip to Biden:

1. Nebraska's 2nd CD
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. North Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Florida
9. Texas
10. Maine's 2nd CD
11. Iowa
12. Ohio

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 31, 2020

And Silver:

Certainly Trump's best result in a high-quality poll in a while. We have gotten/will get lots more high-quality polls though and there haven't been many others with results like this. https://t.co/eSgsuL01wZ

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 31, 2020