"Will you shut up, man?" US Politics October 2020

that's bad news for the SC senate race. the rest of those red states are the deeeeeeep red ones, the ones that vote for trump even in a landslide biden victory. so if people in SC are actually caring about hunter biden, that sucks.

on the other hand, maybe that's a measure of how bad lindsey graham sucks. even with a constituency that spends their spare time conducting oppo-research, he's in a tight race

but a blue Texas in the future is pretty much an extinction level event for the GOP right?

so this is what Shor said in that NYMag interview. Is this the only scenario where Texas goes blue? is he right about the rest? does this mean I should be even more nervous about Tuesday? no idea.

If education-based polarization reaches a point where Texas becomes the tipping-point state, then that means that Michigan and Minnesota and Maine and Wisconsin are all gone.

Lots of delicious quotes here in here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-trump-republicans-elections/2020/10/30/9eacb5b6-1aaf-11eb-aeec-b93bcc29a01b_story.html

This is maddening.

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://t.co/VODOZrCoUF

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) October 31, 2020

but a blue Texas in the future is pretty much an extinction level event for the GOP right?

Not necessarily -- the effects that are pushing AZ, TX, GA, NC to being swing states (migration to growing cities in places with warm weather) are pushing the cold states with post-peak urban centers in the opposite direction. Ohio is already not a swing state anymore. There's a timeline in which PA, MI, WI, MN all look like Ohio does now and Ohio looks like Indiana does now and Illinois looks like Minnesota does now, and that's a world where Republicans are nationally competitive without Texas I think?

xp I agree with the Shor quote if I'm interpreting it correctly

Wow:

Obama going after Trump in MI: “He’s still worrying about his inauguration crowd being smaller than mine...He’s still talking about that. Does he have nothing better to worry about? Did no one come to his birthday party when he was a kid? Was he traumatized? What’s with crowds?”

— Yamiche Alcindor (@Yamiche) October 31, 2020

If those Harris county votes get tossed there will be fucking riots

Enten on the polls and the state of play

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/31/politics/polling-trump-biden-analysis/index.html

The argument against counting the curbside votes needs to be "your jurisdiction told you this was okay and let you do it, so you voted in good faith. But your jurisdiction was wrong to do so, so fuck you your vote is invalid."

That's very different from individual voters making a stupid mistake and having their ballot spoiled as a result.

When your county says "this is how to vote," and you believe them, that's on the county, not on you.

If the GOP wants to go there (and clearly they do), I won't be surprised, but it's a different fight from "HURR DURR I THOUGHT I WAS VOTING 4 BIDEN BUT ACCIDENTALLY FILLED IN THE KANYE BUBBKE OOPS."

Because there were probably also some Trumpoids in the curbside line.

It should be apparent to everyone by now that one of the best ways to suppress votes is to create a host of arbitrary rules which must be followed without the slightest deviation or the vote will be invalidated, while making it much harder for a particular set of voters to follow those rules. Then you claim that "the rules are the same for everybody and we're just impartially enforcing the law". Jim Crow worked along similar lines.

MJ Stern drives me crazy because he is basically on the right side of everything but his dial never goes below "THIS IS IT, THE END OF DEMOCRACY," and it makes me crazy if I'm too attentive to his stuff, there is a range

It should be apparent to everyone by now that one of the best ways to suppress votes is to create a host of arbitrary rules which must be followed without the slightest deviation or the vote will be invalidated, while making it much harder for a particular set of voters to follow those rules.

Or just selectively enforcing those rules. Can't throw out votes if nobody sues to have them thrown out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzxKomdvs_8
"Remove 45" with De La Soul · Styles P · Talib Kweli · Pharoah Monch · Mysonne · Chuck D · Posdnuos

So apparently the Biden/Harris Austin rally was canceled and the campaign bus was almost run off the road.

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/10/biden-harris-campaign-cancelled-austin-tx

not sure about the bus being run off the road - doesn't look like it from the video unless there's another video out there

The lifted truck behind the bus in the video I saw almost ran another car off the road but not the bus.

I assume that Harris wasn’t on the bus or the Secret Service would have made life unpleasant for some F-150 owners.

True to form the lifted truck didn’t seem to be doing it on purpose just driving like a moron.

An interesting thread:

Next week is going to be horrible, for multiple reasons. One reason I haven't seen mentioned much in the media has come up a lot in my discussions with Wall Street types: the personal desperation of the Trumpies if he loses 1/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

Trump himself, of course, faces likely financial ruin from his unpayable debts and perhaps criminal charges if he loses the shield of office. Quite a few officials will probably also face criminal charges for abuse of office, both political and financial 2/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

But there's another, more mundane issue facing many lower-level Trump minions: they may not get the traditional soft landing available to former officials, in which you move into a cushy lobbying or industry job 3/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

Normally service in government is a plus on your resume; serving this government, not so much. For one thing, everyone knows that the Trumpies aren't the A team, or even the B team; they're people who had nothing better to do 4/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

What about K Street? The usual connections won't count for much: Democrats control the House. If they take the Senate too, they will play hardball, giving McConnell very little chance to shape legislation — and anyway, it's obvious that MM personally despises Trump and co 5/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

So if you are, say, Trump's Deputy Assistant Secretary for small endangered mammals, who's going to offer you a job? You pretty much burned your bridges by joining this administration, and that has jammed the revolving door. 6/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

And if you're tempted to mock my mixed metaphor, all I can say is that if Biden wins, the upper hand will be on the other foot 7/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

What all this means is that we're going to be looking at some very desperate people, many willing to do extreme things to pull this out 8/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 31, 2020

Seems bad

This is state terrorism. The @GrahamPolice & @AlamanceNC are violently attacking children in North Carolina, rounding up & arresting Democratic poll watchers, & beating & arresting voters at polling places.

— Mark Hughes (@markhughesfilms) October 31, 2020

they are going to fucking steal this election

Here’s how the Harris county sitch is gonna play out:
1. courts vote to throw out the ballots on Monday
2. angered Texans pack the polls on Tuesday
3. Supreme Court rules that the original votes need to be counted, spoiling untold ballots
4. Texas legislature claims “chaos” and tried to send their own electors

tbf this is the first election of our young country, we'll get it figured out eventually

Trump in PA explicitly saying he’s counting on the Supreme Court to throw the election

I guess more likely is they don’t appeal to the Supreme Court if/when they lose on Monday

They’re gonna have to throw out so many ballots

National Average Lead 3 Days To #ElectionDay

2000: Bush +2
2004: Bush +2.3
2008: Obama +6.4
2012: Obama +0.5
2016: Clinton +2.9
2020: Biden: +8.7

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2020

Feel like the UN should be doing more to monitor the election in this failed state

Lots of delicious quotes here in here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-trump-republicans-elections/2020/10/30/9eacb5b6-1aaf-11eb-aeec-b93bcc29a01b_story.html

This wouldn't load a story for me, just a link to free live updates - if anyone feels like pulling delicious quotes, go ahead

New: Georgia finishes its early voting period at 3,880,984 votes cast, 95% of its '16 total votes cast. Notable counties surpassing '16 total votes cast:

1. Forsyth +14%
2. Paulding +8%
3. Henry +6%
4. Hall +4%
5. Fulton +2%
6. Gwinnett +1%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 31, 2020

Can not fathom how this massive turnout is anything but disastrous for the GOP

Trump in PA explicitly saying he’s counting on the Supreme Court to throw the election

Here's the clip from Trump's Reading, PA rally: “If we win on Tuesday or — thank you very much, Supreme Court — shortly thereafter…”pic.twitter.com/erqh5uNMsk

— The Recount (@therecount) October 31, 2020

From a Texas journalist on the judge in that Harris County case:

Hanen is very conservative, but he’s surprised observers before (as when he left DACA in place.) Let’s hope he puts the kibosh on this complaint—> https://t.co/h8MrEKzRVA

— EricaGrieder (@EricaGrieder) October 31, 2020

Feel like the UN should be doing more to monitor the election in this failed state

― big man on scampus (Noodle Vague), zaterdag 31 oktober 2020 21:27 (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Was going to say, seems like a no-brainer to have the UN present. But then I learnt something today on wiki:

International organizations such as the Organization of American States, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the European Union, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the Council of Europe, and the African Union regularly deploy monitoring teams. The United Nations no longer provides monitoring services; instead, it focuses on electoral assistance. Individual governments also participate in monitoring efforts, generally under the umbrella of an international organization. These national efforts are normally managed by the local electoral commission. A wide array of NGOs also participate in monitoring efforts. The Carter Center, for example, played a key role—with the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division and the National Democratic Institute—in building consensus on a common set of international principles for election observation

I did not know that! Send in the African Union imo.

More Georgia details:

https://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/local/gwinnetts-turnout-for-tuesdays-election-has-already-surpassed-total-from-four-years-ago/article_5f609464-1ae5-11eb-b8ac-676c8ca24ea5.html

Frankly, any presidential candidate who, this close to the election, is talking about 'IF we win' rather than 'WHEN we win' knows that he's about to get his ass dragged down several miles of gravel road.

Yeah that leapt out at me too.

Here's hoping. Gonna have to order extra bourbon though if I am to make it to Wednesday. If it comes down to my sanity or my liver, it's an easy choice.

You can always get another liver.

As Kilgore Trout said: “I hope they never leave.”

It's come to this: A neighbor reports that AG William Barr's house in McLean is being picketed by Trump supporters who believe he's not doing enough to lock up Joe Biden pic.twitter.com/Ko6Mbyfi97

— Glenn Kessler (@GlennKesslerWP) October 31, 2020

It's almost as if the GOP constituency at this point is COVID in human form. Ultimately, they'll ravage anyone sans discrimination. Good luck reaping what you've sown, you venal fuckers.

1. Forsyth +14%
2. Paulding +8%
3. Henry +6%
4. Hall +4%
5. Fulton +2%
6. Gwinnett +1%

half of these (Forsyth, Paulding, Hall) are Republican strongholds

Could be a sign either way? Already seeing a bunch of speculation.

i have a pretty strong stomach for this stuff but the texas drive through thing is fucked up.

the only thing i can say to make it seem less bad is ... if they go ahead and discard them, it's probably a net of "only" 25,000 votes for biden. i might live to regret saying this but texas is a huge electorate, and the presidential election is unlikely to be that close.

of course this is not the GOP's only move, and these things add up. and there are other elections going on.

Could be a sign either way? Already seeing a bunch of speculation.

2020 early voting analysis in a nutshell.

just as an example set of polls, if this is correct it doesn't matter what happens in PA/TX/FL/GA.

New CNN/SSRS polls show Biden ahead in four battleground state polls
MI Biden+12, 53-41
AZ Biden+4, 50-46
WI Biden+8, 52-44
NC Biden+6, 51-45https://t.co/kzfD9zlhZX

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2020

re: that Recount clip, Trump's wearing proper villain-in-a-corny-70s-thriller black leather gloves

I think at this point I'm comfortable predicting the biggest presidential blowout since, what, '84? I am not, however, comfortable predicting that the legitimacy of that blowout won't be compromised by the GOP stirring up an unprecedented level of bullshit.

gonna close this tab and repeat to myself three times "i know nothing, i believe nothing"

CNN's giving a lot of play to “If we win on Tuesday or — thank you very much, Supreme Court — shortly thereafter..."

I'm maybe being naive here, but I'm taking that as Trump bluffing to demoralize (and depress) Democratic turnout--making it seem that everything's been taken care of already, no need to vote. I don't even want to think about that meaning exactly what it seems to mean.

seems more likely to drive anti-Trump turnout

I'm taking that as Trump just spewing words from his barely-functioning brain like always