outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

yeah I think I read the article that stated that, as well as this one: https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/10/19/a-covid-19-vaccine-wont-mean-a-swift-end-for-wearing-masks-or-social-distancing/

my hope has been dwindling as a result

Boston-area COVID (as-measured-by-poop-sampling) numbers just went exponential: pic.twitter.com/D4Gpvlar1g

— Itamar Turner-Trauring (@itamarst) October 21, 2020

*throws "(Welcome Home) Sanitarium" on repeat*

I'm so glad I got my medical marijuana card, y'all. I'm going to be spending a lot of time this winter getting high as giraffe balls and writing weird poetry

I mean, given these numbers, that's what I see in my future

I'm so glad I got my medical marijuana card, y'all. I'm going to be spending a lot of time this winter getting high as giraffe balls and writing weird poetry

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Thursday, October 22, 2020 5:10 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

"ppl who have figured out how to live" thread

So much we don't know..

The Czech death rate at the moment is really astonishing - twice as high per capita as basically anywhere else in Europe. Not yet ofc at the double-figure levels in the worst-affected countries in March/April. pic.twitter.com/2Od55bBpAg

— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) October 23, 2020

they had this really smug video back in April about how low their rates were because of mandatory mask wearing

It's a mystery though. Does it mean that masks don't work? I'd say it needs more reporting but every now and then you get the sense everyone is fumbling around in the dark.

The government stopped enforcing the rules ahead of the election.

Lol it's just horrible but hope it worked out for them.

The UK data from yesterday looks very concerning, unless there's a quirk in the way it's being reported. New cases up about 10% on this time last week but hospitalisations up nearly 50%.

In France too the data is bad. 40000+ new cases yesterday. So far hospitalisations remain relatively low but there's been a point of inflection upward there too. Many new départements were put under curfew starting Saturday, and more are expected to be added next week. There's also talk of extending our curfew in Paris to 7pm, rather than 9pm as it is now. So far that's just rumor though.

Hospitalisations tend to lag cases by a couple of weeks at least so I'd expect that curve to go up even further. Probably also a result of the virus crossing over from younger, and more socially active people, into more vulnerable groups as well.

I no longer have any idea where this ends.

I'd say it needs more reporting but every now and then you get the sense everyone is fumbling around in the dark

The scary scenario is that a lot of this might be down to sheer luck. Super-spreader events have a really disproportionate impact on progression, and there was a Tufecki article recently positing that they might explain the dramatic differences between areas in Italy, for example. It could be that sheer bad luck meant some bad outbreaks blew past the first-line Czech protections and they didn't have a second-line ready and now it's out of control.

I'm no expert but my sense is that masks help, especially when combined with social distancing and particularly partial lockdowns (no indoor bars, restaurants, or schools). See what NY and Italy did. The second you open up, no amount of mask wearing alone is going to stem the tide (though please wear masks).

New cases up about 10% on this time last week but hospitalisations up nearly 50%.

I think this means testing is levelling out but no-ome told the virus.

The virus is much more widespread and firmly entrenched in all populations around the globe today than it was in April. In the USA, for example, the interior of the continent had not yet seen any major outbreaks and populations were mostly virus-free. Now 99% of the USA population is probably living, working and breathing within a couple of miles of someone who is currently infectious.

Much as we'd prefer not to admit it, we're still in the stage where all that can be done is to flatten the curve and wait for new tools to arrive. The best way to flatten the curve is to do what we all knew to do in early April: limit social contacts as much as humanly possible, wash your hands, wear a mask, create a 'safe' bubble in your living space and be aware of whatever enters it from the outside. And with the virus so widespread, it is even more important now than it was in April.

Aimless, we agree!

Plus governments need to develop robust test and tra- oh.

I was jarred reading aimless's post because I think it has been months since I heard anyone use the phrase 'flatten the curve'. It's fucked up how, in the uk at least, the conversation has changed so much even tho the situation and our understanding of it really haven't (not to anything like the same degree anyway). Like the need for a second lockdown in the winter to pinch off cases in time for flu season was a given IN MARCH, and yet it feels so much like everyone is arguing from some earlier prelapsarian point before we knew anything about anything. All this pissing around with tier 2.5 local lockdown when our tracing system has imploded just reinforces something someone said a while ago: we've just given up here. It's dispiriting.

It really is.
I was expecting a more coherent and consistent testing system by now, back in the Spring.
This was initially spreading because we don't know who has it - it's now spreading partly because even if you think there might be a possibility of you having it there aren't many incentives in place to do the right thing if this inconveniences/impoverishes you.

Cases per million people in the Midwest have surpassed both the early peak in the Northeast and the summer surge in the South. pic.twitter.com/MiHF4GBu9o

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) October 24, 2020

Ohio has a set a daily record for new cases everyday this week.

Holy shit that's some very frightening stuff.

Epidemiology twitter is starting to make noise that if an infection gets wildly uncontrolled then vaccines aren't much use, which is a frightening scenario.

MEADOWS: We're not going to control the pandemic

TAPPER: Why not?

M: Because it's a contagious virus

T: Why not make efforts to contain it?

M: What we need to do is make sure we have the proper mitigation factors to make sure people don't die pic.twitter.com/0DYgk4rB3T

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 25, 2020

Ghouls.

If it was a bacterial infection, we'd be all over this shit like 99 clowns in a tiny car

Epidemiology twitter is starting to make noise that if an infection gets wildly uncontrolled then vaccines aren't much use, which is a frightening scenario.

where community spread is high and vaccination efficacy is low

If it is true that the FDA plans certify any vaccine where trials show it is more than 50% effective, then that could be exactly where we end up.

It is exactly where we’re going to end up.

At warp speed.

based on politics/distrust of science/jenny mccarthy, ~40% of the USA will probably not take any vaccine which will lead to a grim dystopia straight out of the late middle ages.

this seems good:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/magazine/covid-natural-experiments.html

Cool article!

✈️NEW flight report on corona transmission on flights:

13 people appear to have been infected on a 7-hr flight to Ireland this summer, leading to 59 cases as passengers visited friends & family. The plane was at 17% capacity & required masks.https://t.co/7XrxTz5DRe pic.twitter.com/GhyHV1nGWR

— Amy Maxmen (@amymaxmen) October 26, 2020

that's freaky because the conventional wisdom = teh HEPA filters would filter the air which would probably protect those far away from infected cases, and usually those in the immediate rows around the infected were at higher risk, particularly if someone sneezed or wasn't wearing a mask, but there's a great degree of separation between the cases in the seats.

wonder if transmission was due to people unmasking to drink/eat for long periods of time, or from visiting the lavatory (either from fomites or coming in contact with someone leaving lavatory, etc).

serves as a reminder that air travel has risk too. I will admit to having taken a flight this year (I wore KN95 masks while I flew) but I wouldn't take a flight longer than 2 hours. probably won't do it at all ongoing tbh.

Every airplane seat already has those drop-down masks. Could we just make them mandatory for the whole flight, every flight?

It may, of course, not be on the plane where transmission occurred.

A lot of standing in line at security, to board, immigration etc. The whole airport experience seems a recipe for transmission.

This study has been doing the rounds, seems to confirm that risk of airborne transmission from seated passengers is pretty unlikely, but it doesn’t account for the rest of the flying experience.

https://www.ustranscom.mil/cmd/docs/TRANSCOM%20Report%20Final.pdf

In other news, shops, bars and restaurants will open in Melbourne tomorrow for the first time in nearly 3 months.

Jesus. Doctors in Liege with Covid asked to keep working if they have no symptoms to stop the hospital system collapsing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54688846

OK I definitely don't want to catch Covid-19, I've decided:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-brains/covids-cognitive-costs-some-patients-brains-may-age-10-years-idUSL8N2HI38G

Ugh, that's all I need. I already feel like Charlie in the back half of Flowers for Algernon.

^think about this quite often

One cognitive study isn't enough to establish very much, but it sure seems to indicate something.

The Aimless of ten years ago would have explained that better.

jibes with earlier anecdotal reportage of “brain fog”

yeah I thought the brain fog part went away once you'd recovered

The Aimless of ten years ago would have explained that better.

I'll cop to that. Aging is not really reversible.